Winter Storm Warning--but NO Blizzard!
As I said last night at 11, there was no evidence that winds would be of blizzard criteria in this storm, and that's still the case this Friday morning. The Warning goes into effect 4pm through 8am Sunday. Frequent periods of snow today will pick up a bit by mid/late afternoon, leading to some slick driving on untreated surfaces for the PM commute, w/1-3" on the ground by evening. More periods of snow will continue tonight and Saturday morning. A raw NE breeze will pick up later today and continue into the morning. 2-4 additional inches will fall tonight. Storm totals should be in the 10-13" range by the predawn hours of Sunday for most of the Niagara Frontier, Chautauqua & nrn Catt Cos, with POSSIBLY lesser amounts to the SE due to the potential of sleet mixing in. NE winds will increase a little to 15-30 tom'w afternoon, strongest toward Lk Ontario, where some lake enhancement will probably produce locally higher amounts than that 10-13" range.
The most intense part of this storm will develop during Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, diminishing after 1 or 2 AM Sunday. Snow will be heavy, with blowing and drifting--BUT snowfall rates should be manageable for most of the time during this long duration event. Of course, I'll have updated accumulation projections on News 4 this evening, including new input from our Super Microcast.
The most intense part of this storm will develop during Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, diminishing after 1 or 2 AM Sunday. Snow will be heavy, with blowing and drifting--BUT snowfall rates should be manageable for most of the time during this long duration event. Of course, I'll have updated accumulation projections on News 4 this evening, including new input from our Super Microcast.
posted by Don Paul at
10:14 AM
326 Comments:
Hopefully you wont jinx us all with that title...
Blizzard conditions require sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35+ mph.
There was never anything in yesterday's models which justified that alarmist term.
Still not impossible, but unlikely unless the storm deepens beyond the range of all available models.
Don,do you EVER rest? Thanks for the update. The NWS says there could be a lull in the precip tomorrow am,then the storn will intensify.True?
Don:
It seems as though the 1-3 inches total for today seems light in view of the steadiness of the snow and the fact there seems to b e little movement of the system. Might we actually get more during the daytime hours today?
3" should be a max today, plus there will be considerable melting on the main roads during the day.
Off to the Meet 'n Greet (see thread below for BWEC)!
good luck fielding the questions about the snow that you already answered like 20 times....
don
I love this blog! I also read other local blogs and came across one that is new and kind of funny. It's a video blog that actually talks about BWEC!(I think it's @ the 11:25 mark) I found it funny and informative. It's good to see other people talking about this as well.
www.ynotbuffalo.com
blog #5
Already aboput .5" of heavy wet snow in Jamestown. Thank goodness our .33" of ice fell off the trees yesterday.
str
Anyone know if most of this snow will be the heavy, wet type or the lighter fluffier type? Seems with temps not all that cold it may be the heavy, hard to shovel type, but I am not sure if that is the only determining factor. Obviously what we are getting now is heavy and wet, but when the real snow gets here is what I am wondering about.
hey dw...as far as I can see there's going to be wet snow at first and perhaps a bit of mixing w/sleet. The snows tomorrow may be a little lake enhanced and the temps will fall steadily enough to turn the snow more fluffy.
Things to look for...if the snow is wetter and we get mixing, there will be less accum. ALSO dont forget about the dry slots...these keep our totals down, too.
This is the winter trifle...layered with different snow consistancies. I'm going to shovel later tonight before this first layer gets compacted beneeth more snow and freezes into a layer of ice.
NWS pushed the **Winter Storm Warning** up to begin at 12pm this afternoon... not at 4pm anymore.
ok, thanx Tristan.
The snow is starting to stick on the roads and comming down pretty good and im thinking we'll get a litttle more accum. And I didnt, and neither did channel 4 expect the snow to start this earlie and its comming down pretty good.
-Chris
-From: West Seneca
MAX TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
WELL OVER A FOOT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS WELL WHICH WILL LEAD TO BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AND VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING.
WOW! Mike not only said BLIZZARD like conditions within his noon weather cast, but he actualy wrote it out on the Saturday tab!
It happened... WIVB said "BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS!"
Don--- any more information on The Weather Channel coming to Buffalo? Where might the be set up if they come here?
Has Mike S called your cell at all again with more info?
dear It's official....its not official until you look outside and cant see the car in your own driveway or the tree on your front lawn.
remember Mike's and Don's forecasts are independent of one another...
dont get this blog all fired up. lets be level-headed.
Mike did a remote broadcast from the Ralph this morning.
And...we're under the Warning....again...we'll see if this warrants warning lables, shall we?
its gonna track east and go out to sea.
I'm looking for a spot that hasn't been kissed yet! Ah, found one! So what's all the excitement about the weather channel coming to Buffalo when you've got the best people here all the time! So how about it guys, any convective activity possible with this storm? and I think we should have a friendly competition regarding the snowfall amount; if Toronto wins you can send us some Buffalo wings, if Buffalo wins we'll send you the Leafs! how about it??
Hi bloggers! I've loved watching this storm develop and unfold, So interesting!
I know this winter season has pretty dull in comparison to some others but since TODAY is my birthday, and also, the 7th (lucky) day of the month.....hopefully we will get a whopper! One to remember! Ok SO im just a wishful thinking glass half full kind of girl.
Lets keep our fingers crossed we have a good one. Every winter season should have at least one real good winter storm!
Ps. Im Don Paul's Number 1 fan. haha. Don - Dont let them get you down when they suggest having ellen maxwell do the weather reports instead, you will always be my weather man! haha
whats all the hub bub about this storm?...some of you are acting like this is a once in a lifetime event!!!!!!!!!! its a wonder Don Paul even writes on this blog.......get a grip people.....
That last poster must have been born on an 'unlucky' day (maybe the 13th?)
What a grump. (ha ha)
or april 15th..now THATS an unlucky day!!!
Just to start...here in north collins, is snowing pretty steady for about 2 hours now, i would say we almost have 2 inches , not much wind but just coming down at a steady rate...
southtowner
freezing rain and sleet are beginning to creep up into Northern PA.
NOT A GRUMP but its only snow for goodness sake........do you people get this excited over rain?.......i respect the weather watchers but when people start posting inch by inch updates thats a tad ridiculous........
2600 snowfalkes fell on my house while I was reading that and another 5000 fell while I was counting the first 2600.
Now I'll count the ones that fell while I was writing this.
Now THATS rediculous!
lololol good one rrrd...........
I think Mike from the Weather channel was in Cleveland this morning outside of the rock and roll hall of fame and Browns Stadium....that Henry guy on AccuWeather (Metro Madness)says that a lot of local mets were downplaying this and referring to it as "just a snowstorm", whereas he thinks it's going to be a paralyzing blizzard with road closures and the like....it will be interesting to see who is right....my money's on Don, but you never know!!
Crack-you-weather updates are purly fictional and are for educational purposes only!
scuse me...distracted..let me repost:
Crack-you weather updates are purely fictional and for ENTERTAINMENT purposes only!
To respond below...no one makes you read the blog, so why are you on here...this is what we do, give updates to what is happening where we live...if you dont like it get off the blog, I mean your a little ridiculous that #1 you poke fun at other comments and #2 that you use the word TAD....give me a break
Southtowner
NOT A GRUMP but its only snow for goodness sake........do you people get this excited over rain?.......i respect the weather watchers but when people start posting inch by inch updates thats a tad ridiculous........
March 7, 2008 2:13 PM
I consider it REPREHENSIBLE when a blogger comes here and posts a lie. The NWS says nothing about a blizzard (I just spend an hour w/Tom Niziol at our Meet 'n Greet meeting), and he agrees this storm will fall beneath the guidelines for blizzard conditions. In addition, while I didn't see Mike's noon cast, his posted forecast at wivb.com says NOTHING about blizzard-like conditions.
Finally, not that it matters all that much, but the NWS did NOT move the Warning up to noon--they left it at 4.
If we have to trace IPs to ban dishonest posters, we'll do it. I know it's a small minority, but it's disgraceful and won't be tolerated.
My latest fcast is on 844-4444--have to slide to work!
Mike Seidel will be somewhere downtown between 5 & 7; that's all I know--he interviewed Tom N this AM--I haven't talked to him yet today.
i read the blog to get insight on the weather and to read what Don Paul has to say, i find it quite amazing as to what goes into to givning us an accurate forcast. Many people wish they could be weathermen/ women because its the only job you can be wrong at and still keep your job. But in reality what these people do for our benifit is unbelievable and mind boggling and i wouldn t want their job for anything. Unfortunately sometimes this blog takes on the appearance of an AOL chat room and as DON PAUL recently stated a place to submit lies and start rumors.....
uh, Don, with all do respect, we've been in the watch boxes since at least 12:30 when I first checked in. I have the NWS site up now..its pink.
ok well an interesting afternoon is unfolding! first of all, the snow began around 1030 this morning, and it started to come down at about a moderate rate. it has continued to snow from then until now and right now there's a steady snow up in wheatfield with around 3 inches give or take an inch or so. the roads are already HORRIBLE. you really have to take it easy out there. being out on the road, it sure looked like a classic winter snowstorm - reduced visibilities, creeping cars, everything seemed to be slowing down. i am a little concerned and i really think the warning should have began around 12. we are already in the snow and i was not expecting this to happen until around 4 or later when the warning would come into effect. this is great, but i just want to know why the snow started so early. is it because it's tracking faster than expected, or stronger than expected? only a question a true pro can answer. we are in for a very snowy time this next 24 hours or so, and with some lake enhancement up here, i would easily believe we can get well over a foot (maybe two? who knows)
Guys im not kidding please belive me.IN HAMBURG WE ALLREADY HAVE 3-5 INCHES I WAS AMAZED TO SEE IT PILE UP SO FAST.-Adam from Hamburg
the warning was put up earlier today but not supposed to go into effect until 4 pm. i did not see any change with the time it would go into effect although i will say it should have changed now that i see we are in the thick of it and have been for a few hours.
Anonymous said...
And...we're under the Warning....again...we'll see if this warrants warning lables, shall we?
March 7, 2008 12:33 PM
I checked it after this post and it was a warning then...its still now, go see!
yeah adam i am thinking the same exact thing. i might be tempted to go outside and measure the snow just so i would know. but believe me, it is coming down pretty good and we have to have at least 3 inches on the ground. don, could this mean bigger storm totals?
I think I see the problem with the warning. The map at (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/ )shows our area as a current warning but the text forecast /special message for our area explains further that the warning doesn't go into effect until 4 pm. No big deal, it is only 1/2 hour away now, anyways.
Like Don said, the NWS isn't saying anything about a blizzard. They are calling for snow and blowing snow Saturday evening/night.
This post has been removed by the author.
Jamestown now has 3.75"
str
Holy Sh@t
The Nws Of Willimgton OHIO Has Posted a Blizzard Warning For Parts Of OHIO
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM WILL HIT AS A ONE TWO PUNCH.
THE INITIAL PUNCH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW
INTENSITY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WHEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. BEFORE
THE STORM ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...YOU CAN EXPECT 10 TO 15 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CAUSE EXTREME WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
CAUSING WHITEOUT...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
REMEMBER...A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS
WHOA WHOA WHOA NEWS FLASH!!
CINCINNATI AND MANY COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE UNDER...
BLIZZARD WARNINGS!!!
CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT!!?!?!?!?
don, this is incredible! do you think there is justification to issue these, and if so, if we are in the path of most heavy snow and wind, could we get one? i know you said there won't be a blizzard, but mother nature is beginning to fool us. we all did not think there would be this much snow by now, so anything can happen as far as i am concerned. at least it is a SLIGHT POSSIBILITY, right?
wow. that really shocked me.
delete don, delete!!!
wow ayuud that is TOO WEIRD
anyway i just heard it on the weather channel so i raced down to my basement to confirm it and WHOA! its real!
kinda makes you wonder... :)
which one...mine or ayuud's?
we are simply relaying information, anon, and pondering if blizzard conditions are possible. relax.
Don, if Ayuud is right you should let him be a wx man for a day. If Ayuud is wrong, he can never say the "b" word again!
sound good?
At least spring is not to far away.
what did he say?
he is not the one that asked about a blizzrad. i was. so go ahead, tell me i am stupid, naive, overhyping. i know, i know.
Get a grip everyone! It's a snowstorm. Not the end of the world. Want "BIG" predictions? Come cross the big ditch into southern Niagara/Haldimand where we're being warned now that we will likely see 50-60 cm (20-24 inches)and oh, my! It's going to get windy too, tomorrow.
I don't consider Environment Canada's forecasts too reliable, nor are their updates what I'd call timely, but they are telling us the brunt of this will hit us in Niagara.
In other words, don't go out for a leisurely cruise in the car, if you don't have to. Anyone from here travelling on March Break to southern US climates, well..."the best laid plans of men and mice..." may need to readjust their plans. It won't be the end of the world if they do.
I'd also assume that the term 'blizzard like' does not mean 'blizzard'. It just means it'll probably be blowing snow and make you ~think~ there is one going on. Big difference.
Be kind, watch out for your elderly and other neighbours who need help shovelling or just check on them. One of these days, that might well end up being YOU. And remember, if it's too nasty for you, it's too nasty for your pets out there too so bring them in please.
Have a good and safe weekend! Snow has started here in Welland, and is coming down steady but moderately for now with some winds blowing it a bit. It's just the beginning edge of things.
MC
Ayuud's listening to the Crack-u-weather...
Get off that stuff...its baaad!
I find it interesting.I thought the point of starting a blog was for weather freaks to have fun,chat,compare.It seems alot of this blog has turned into forecaster bashing (which i am guilty of but only as far as nws)and making at home forecast models.I have no problems with those who do it.I like people who try,but not those who turn it nasty if anyone questions them.I have read blogs of some calling others 'idiot' type things.Personally I come here to get away from that read,have fun.I can watch bickering at home!But what makes me wonder most of all,the ones who come here and do nothing but bash.If you are so bothered by the inaccuracies of weather forecasters and weather stations why would you go into a weather blog.To me it makes sense to avoid things that bother you,not find a new avenue to hear insulting comments,and constant uneducated forecast model makers who really believe they are right over college trained professionals!
One Thing I Know If We Get Blizzard ,,,Me And W.E.B.W Will Be The One's Who Predicted It And You People Will Be Wondering And Saying To Yourselfs "Hey Those Kids From The Buffalo Weather Blog : Ayuud;W.E.B.W Were Prediciting A Blizzard And We Were Ignoring Them"
Just My 2 Cents On It
AMEN AYUUD!!
We Got About 4-5 Inches Already Here In West Side Of Buffalo...What About Wheatfield W.E.B.W
Exactly 5" in Hamburg.NOT A LIE!!!!!! THE WEATHER BUG 3-6 TONIGHT, 4-7 TOMARROW , AND 3-6 TOMARROW NIGHT.
Tristan,
If you'd read the text of the Warning, you'd have seen it didn't go into effect until 4pm--not that means anything now.
This post has been removed by the author.
Ayuud,
I respectfully suggest you turn off your computer and give it a rest. You come on here copying and pasting from other sites, clearly violating the copyrights of those sites, and screaming in capital letters, your "predictions".
You need to spend more time concentrating on the basics, like spelling and proper grammar. You want to grow up and be a 'met'. Doubtful anyone would consider hiring you if you can't spell or compose sentences correctly. Who would understand your forecasts?
Filling this blog with irrelevant weather from other states is not helping and just makes it difficult for those who want to read THIS blog and read educational exchanges from the Ch. 4 mets and others on here. Give it up. I'm sure there are youth blogs where you can go do your screaming.
There are four highly experienced and qualified meteorologists on this blog; Don, Mike, Mary-Beth and Lindsay. YOUR name doesn't appear there. That leaves you out as a forecaster. Leave it to the pro's, please. You waste so much space on here blasting and pasting
from other sites, and it's hard to find relevant information. We don't want to read that, just post the link. Thank you. You've been asked to do that numerous times, so please demonstrate that you do at least have basic comprehension of language skills and please abide by that.
Most WNY weather sources have upped their forecast snowfall totals a decent amount... including don! We're suupposed to get *well over a foot now!
Its not out of the question to see a ~foot and a half~ of snow out of this storm... afterall, we were not supposed to have as much snow on the ground as we do now. That makes you wonder how much we'll actualy get...
Ok, I thought I'd inject a little humor into this thread:
A study was recently done in cities across the country by the car insurance industry to find out what the last words of people about to get in a winter weather-related accident were. In 98% of the cities, the last words were "Uh oh!" The other two percent were from Buffalo, where the last words were, "Hold on to my beer and watch this!"
This is what the "ever so popular" wunderground.com site now says:
Tonight
Snow. Accumulation 3 to 6 inches. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph...becoming north 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
Saturday
Snow. Blowing snow in the afternoon. Additional accumulation 4 to 7 inches. Near steady temperatures in the mid 20s. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
Saturday Night
Snow. Blowing snow. Accumulation 3 to 6 inches. Colder with lows 10 to 15. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph...becoming west. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
**Bringing total storm snowfall accumulations from 10 to 19 inches by Sunday morning!**
Interresting Marshall Stack What Website You Get That From
haha that is pretty funny Marshall!
The Airport Is Reporting 4.4 Inches Of Snow
All of south-central, southwestern and eastern Ontario under a winter storm warning. As MC in Welland s noted 20 to 24 inches forecast for Niagara. A foot for Toronto and lesser amounts where I live. Environment Canada doesn't rule out thunder and lightning for folks north of Lake Ontario and along the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday night as the strong low passes by.
This being March Break in Ontario, thousands will be TRYING to get out of Toronto airport late tonight and tomorrow for warmer climates. Wouldn't want to be the parent to tell my kids the flight to Disney/Orlando has been cancelled.
Snowfall warning for
St. Catharines - Grimsby - northern Niagara region changed to winter storm warning!-Canidian viewing area.
Don
How similar is this to the storm from early March about 15 years ago??
Was that the last blizzard warning??
Don would you say that there is a chance of smoe place on the Niagara Frontier seeing 2 feet of snow?... The Canidian weather service is calling for up to 2ft of snow for the Niagara region.
Ah come on barrie1. You have to admit that camping out IN the Buffalo airport is fun and an adventure in and of itself. Don't know about you but most of us here prefer to fly out of Buffalo any day over Toronto. Nicer people there and less craziness. Seriously.
Should you wish some snow up there, I will be pleased to send you some. I'll trade you for the lightning - that I'd love to see. Get photos if you possibly can and share them.
Take care, it's coming down more steadily here now and I'd say we have about 3-4 inches so far.
MC in Welland
The Weather Channel is reallg talking about Buffalo a whole lot on TV!
Don,
We have just hit the 4 inch mark (3 measurement average) in northern OP with light to moderate snow continuing.
How is the forecast holding up... Are things going as planned/expected? Anything peaking your interest, curiosity?
As always, Looking forward to your comments...
-Matt from OP
4.9 inches here in Getzville thus far.
I know I said this once before, but I just checked some national sites, and I can't get over the disconnect between the national weather companies and the local NWS and Don, who would obviously have the best understanding and knowledge of the area.
I mean some places are in all out panic mode throwing out the "B" word, which local mets should and rightfully seem to be very cautious about using...
Sorry Don, I was under the impression that thie map I was reading was actually a representation of what its supposed to represent, not a prognosis for the representation, in this case a winter storm warning, but dont get all mad at us...its NWS inaccurate graphics that we read...And when it reads Warning, people tend to take note.
I'd say I'm being one of the more level-headed ones on here today. If I'm posting something, its not going to be outrageous like ayuud or w.e.b.w. or others...
Its not relevant anymore, just want you to be clear that I'm not a troll.
Anon..
You must be referring to the Superstorm of March 12-13 1993. This year's storm is somewhat similar in its general track and development, but the 1993 storm was much more intense and widespread, with stronger winds, deeper snow and a much larger area of impact. The 1993 superstorm tracked across NYC with a central pressure of an incredible 960 mb (akin to a level 2 Hurricane) By comparison, this weekends storm is forecast to drop to "only" 987 mb, still intense, but nowhere near the monster the 1993 storm was. The 1993 storm still ranks as one of the greatest east coast storms of all time.
Ayuud - That joke was emailed to me a while back. There are jokes that have been travelling through cyberspace longer than you've been alive!
I remember the March 1993 storm, I was a senior at UB at the time. Having grown up in West Virginia, it was more snow than I'd seen in my life, and the first blizzard I'd ever been in. Being "stuck" at my girlfriend's house made it bearable :)
Anyway, there's about three inches on the ground at Main and Fillmore in Buffalo's exclusive and picturesque Central Park area.
Here in West Seneca we have about 6.2" so far and its coming down. I think a "B" is not out of the question, even a good chance of one. and also I think that the totals should be "upped" quite a bit.
Also I am a high school senior err was because i graduated Earlie.
-Chris
Already closing in on 6 inches in south Amherst. Seems like the snow totals for today are a bit higher than expected...Here's a few 5 PM reports from the NWS for those keeping official tabs:
...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
PERRYSBURG 4.0 245 PM 3/7
...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
JAMESTOWN 3.8 340 PM 3/7
...ERIE COUNTY...
CHEEKTOWAGA 5.2 450 PM 3/7 BUF NWS OFFICE
WILLIAMSVILLE 4.9 430 PM 3/7 NWS METEOROLOGIST
WEST FALLS 3.3 445 PM 3/7 -SN
...NIAGARA COUNTY...
LOCKPORT 4.0 450 PM 3/7 -SN
...ORLEANS COUNTY...
ALBION 3.0 500 PM 3/7 -SN
I did suggest this morning that 1-3 seemed light for a total. I'm guessing 16-20" before it is all over.
Hey MC/bloggers/ch 4 weather
You know we have plenty of snow when even the ski resort operators are saying "STOP! NO MORE!."
Hoping for some lightning Sat. night.
Yes, I actually fly out of Buffalo when I can, as do many people I know. Friendly service. Cheaper flights. I hear ya!
Hunker down in Niagara/WNY
Funny, it seems so many people are frustrated Don won't use the 'B' word. Environment Canada is calling for hazardous travel but won't use the 'B' word. Correct me if I am wrong, but there is more criteria than just heavy snow and strong winds to qualify for blizzard criteria..doesn't certain temperature for a certain period of time matter too?
This storm seems like it'll be doozy as it is. Unless something changes, anyone who wants a blizzard will have to order one from Dairy Queen.
PUT THE WEATHER CHAANNEL ON THEIR WE ARE!! THEY ARE HERE!!
just over 6 inches already here in the West Seneca/OP area and still steady snow. I'm pretty suprised how quick that moderate snow managed to pile up this afternoon. If we already got 6 when the general forcast idea was only 1-2 inches by midnight tonight storm totals could end up being pretty high.
Not sure about the B idea, all going to depend just how the winds blow tomorrow, either way their is going to be A LOT of snow to be blown around.
Don, ???, How was the snow able to accumulate rather quickly on the roads and pavement today? I thought the spring sun angle generally held the snow from accumulating on paved surfaces during the daylight hours.
thegeneral,
No one I'm aware of had forecast only 1-2" by late tonight. Last night, I'd forecast 1-3" by late afternoon, w/an add'l 2-4" tonight.
The snow accumulated today because it snowed hard enough to compensate for the insolation/solar input. That was not the case 2 weeks ago.
Blizzard warnings no longer include a strict temperature requirement--it used to be 20 degrees or less. But the wind requirement is still 35 mph sustained or frequently--and that's still not showing up in the models. However, that's not to say blowing snow won't be a big problem late tom'w and tom'w night.
It will, w/sustained winds picking up to 20-30; strongest north of Buffalo, and somewhat lighter in the srn tier.
My updated Storm Totals: 12-18" with possibly more to the north, and less closer to PA to possible sleet for awhile tonite & early tom'w.
Well Don all I gotta say tonight is we are getting hammered. I think we are getting a couple inched an hour. I stick the ruller in latter on tonight when I feed the sheep. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr its a wild wooly night in Stedman.
Hey Don,how long will this "dry slot" last? How was the turnout today for the BWEC?
Ok, according to the forecasters,WSW goes into effect at 4pm. The snow fell for most of the DAY and currently during the first few hours of the warning ,it has stopped snowing here in West Seneca.
??????
Let's get back to the weather...
Don, how are things going... any surprises, curiosities, things you're looking for... is all going as planned...
I should have stated that the last message was from me... Matt from OP
The only surprise from this storm was how well established the snow today became with what's called an "inverted trough" extending from the Gulf states, where I was expecting up to 3" with a midday start, and the airport got a record 5.2" (record for this date).
The dry slot is having difficulty making its way to the Niagara Frontier at 8:10pm. Upper level jetstream-related winds are producing a spreading flow aloft which is generating more lift over much of WNY, so the steady snow continues. Should this lift continue, I'll have to up my overnight accum back up from 2-4" to the original 3-6" from my late afternoon forecasting. These kinds of changes are called "nowcasting" and become necessary during more fast-breaking developments.
One of the posts I deleted from a weasely type said AccuWeather had never called for a Blizzard. That's not true. Yesterday, they forecast precisely that, and today's Buffalo News has a short article in the City & Region section in which senior meteorologist Jim Andrews had forecast a Blizzard--not blizzard-like conditions.
Why the fuss? Because a Blizzard can be a life-threatening storm, and overuse of the term makes its impact on public awareness lessen. That may not be important for terms like Winter Storm Warning, but sending out potentially false alarms on a life-threatening storm is dangerous business. A met could believe, as Andrews did, that a true Blizzard would develop. I