Winter Storm Warning--but not for heavy snow
The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for WNY from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. This time, the primary threat may be ice accumulation, due to shallow arctic air creating favorable conditions for significant amounts of sleet and the more dangerous freezing rain. There is a chance more than 1/2" of ice could accumulate, which--if it occurs--could cause some serious problems.
posted by Don Paul at
10:44 AM
240 Comments:
Don....ah, the first poster to the new thread!!......at this point, how would confidence rate on the possibility of up to 1/2 inch of ice?....High confidence....moderate...low...also, what are the mitigating factors that could alter things...ie.e surface temperature, path of storm, etc....thanks
hey don
do you recall a winter in which there have been several occurrances of sleet/ice? usally we re good for one ice storm but this latest threat is what? the 3rd/ 4th such event?
Hi Don, just wanted to let you know that a few weeks back you really had my wife and I chuckling. On either your 10 or 11 forecast you casually mentioned something about the snowy weather in "Richert-ville". We know he lives in town and we actually attend the same church as George (he is an excellent lector) so we caught the connection you were making.
Keep up the good work!!
LOW.
To Anonymous,
Yes in 1978 and 1980 there were a stead stream of sub tropical lows rotating off the shore of southern California, that caused the jet stream to plunge deep into the hearland and rebound a bit early causing precisely what we are seeing this winter. Next year however will be a different story as the models indicate. Excellent question Anonymous.
Sounds like downed tree limbs and power outages to me if this icing event happens. Will there be strong/high winds associated with it as well?
When cold air is predominantly shallow, this is what happens. The last post from another anonymous appears to have high gibberish content, so I'll pass on responding to that. The lack of a negative NAO, partially linked to the fairly vigorous la nina, continues to favor storm systems with mixed precip due to shallow arctic air near the surface.
The only high confidence factor to this storm is that it will develop a lot of precipitation. The difference between far less dangerous sleet and treacherous freezing rain can be a few hundred feet (in depth) of subfreezing air.
It appears heaviest precip will be tom'w night. The operational GFS has enough warming at that time so that icy precip could turn back to just rain--which would be a good thing. The NAM is a little colder than that.
Of all the very tough calls we've had to make this winter, this one may be the toughest of all. Utility companies will have to be on their toes, as well.
only in buffalo can you have spring and winter all in a matter of 24 hrs!!!!!!!!! next week summer!
Don....So far this winter, which model has been more reliable, the operational GFS or the NAM?...or are the differences negligible...thanks....
The GFS has been better, more often. But in very nearterm storms, the NAM offers higher resolution and better boundary layer wind information. That higher resolution will be important tomorrow, for better location of the depth of the very shallow cold air, as the GFS can have a tendency toward a cold bias--though that bias is minor compared to a few years ago.
All that said, it was the European which did the best job with last week's storm path--which left most of us with lighter-than-predicted snow. That was the only large storm this winter which took a more southerly path. All of the mixed precip storms have involved a more northerly path, which scours out any very deep arctic air in place ahead of the storm.
The NAM is predicting:
Total: 2.612
Rain:0.263(quarter of an inch)
Snow:0.548 (5.5 inches)
Ice Pellets(sleet):1.734(17 inches!)
Frzg Rain:0.062(6/100th of an inch)
Now I personally think that the sleet is way too high on this forecast. I think about 6 inches of snow and 6 inches of sleet and about .50
(half inch) of frzg rain. However the GFS shows warmer air , resulting in way less sleet/snow and more rain/frzg rain.Now no matter what happens WNY will see alot of precip , it just depends how warm/cold the air is at the surface as well as aloft that determines our precipitation type.The Niagara Frontier may be in for a significant snow event and the southern tier may be in for a significant icing event, but its is still very early. and no one should use my data for any type of precip forecast or anything at all.All the meteorologist at Channel 4 have much more knowledge then myself, so stick to them when it comes to any real "official forecast"
Devin,
I hope you're not serious, but I give you credit for at least posting with a boardname.
Unfortunately, those numbers are silly. Please don't pretend on this blog. Yes, we like to have fun, but fun doesn't include posting scientific nonsense.
haha i know Don , that is pretty funny , so what are your predictions , im just wondering ?
but my numbers of
Total: 2.612
Rain:0.263(quarter of an inch)
Snow:0.548 (5.5 inches)
Ice Pellets(sleet):1.734(17 inches!)
Frzg Rain:0.062(6/100th of an inch)
are from the real NAM , i wasn't making those up , but there is no way were gonna get that much.
I just wanted to make a personal statement.
I think Don Paul and all of the channel 4 weather team deserve alot of credit.I know how hard the work trying to get the best and most accurate forecast for all of WNY.They not only get the forecast right most of the time.They take their own personal time on this weather blog to answer any of our questions or concerns.So for that i give you an A + and 2 thumbs up .
http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/2008030312/KBUF/prec.png
Hmmm...I'm more confused than ever now...so the GFS has been better all winter, which predicts more rain, but the NAM is better in the short term, which predicts more freezing rain, but the Euro got the last storm the most accurate...what do they say about tomorrow...have a feeling we won't know what's gonna happen with this one until it actually happens...my gut is still saying a mostly rain event for us...that seems to be the trend this winter...
Here is what the GFS calls for Buffalo:
Total:2.374 ( 2.3 inches)
Rain:0.181 (2/10 of an inch)
Snow:0.941 (9.5 inches)
Ice Pellets (sleet):0
Frzg Rain(ice):1.251 (1.2 inches)(CATASTROPHIC)
of course the models will change several more times before the storm gets here.
p.s. Don do you know any weather programs for teenagers ?
any forcasting you do Don i hope your wrong and tommorrow will be like today.......what a gorgous day!!!!!!!!!
Devin,
I don't have time to explain right now, but that's NOT how we use numbers from the models. I wish it were that easy, but that's why meteorology takes 4 years of college and years of experience.
Go to the NWS Buffalo website, and click on Education in the lower left, as a good starting point on some basics.
is thier a chance of any heavy acumulating snow this week
i recall don you said the snowfall total for this winter is only 8 inches below normal?...i would think that the number would be higher because this has been one heck of a mild winter.....
The official snowfall deficit as of this morning at the NWS observatory is 6.7 inches.
How is there no storm watch or anything for Ontario Canada??
*Don,* how confident are you that the precip wont fall as mostly rain on the Niagara Frontier?
Too many times this winter we've had "duds"... people are going to have a hard time believing this one. The NWS has posted that they WILL be putting up a *winter storm warning* for all of WNY.
**Do you think iceing problems (freezing rain wise) COULD get bad enough for power outtages on the Niagara Frontier? Seems as if the S. Tier is all thats being talked about as far as freezing rain goes!
Its a whopping 64.6 degrees outside here in Amherst!!!
It wont last though, I hear! : (
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FALLING TREE BRANCHES AND
SNAPPED POWER LINES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO BE PREPARED FOR
PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL
ON UNTREATED ROADS DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION...LET SOMEONE KNOW
YOUR TRAVEL PLANS AND CARRY A CELLULAR PHONE.
POTENTIAL QPF TUES NT WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE...HEAVIEST ACROSS SRN TIER. P-TYPE IS A MAJOR CONCERN. AT
THIS STAGE IT APPEARS THE BULK OF IT WILL BE A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR AWHILE ACROSS
SRN TIER. WHERE PRECIP IS MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN THERE IS A RISK OF
A MAJOR ICE STORM...AND WHERE IT DOES TURN TO RAIN THERE IS A RISK
OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. AREAS WHERE PRECIP IS MAINLY SLEET WILL
HAVE FEW PROBLEMS. AT THIS STAGE IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO PINPOINT
THESE SPECIFIC AREAS SO MAINTAINED WINTER STORM WATCH EVERYWHERE
FROM 5 AM TUES TILL NOON WED. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN WED MORNING.
This is exactly what happens, it's a classic scenario of warm air wrapping around cold air.. Like a cannoli!!
There are some very impressive straight line winds right now in Louisiana. Good spawning conditions for tornadic activity. Hey how do we get names on here? Too many "anonymouses"
Adam,
You're wrong about the Winter Storm Warning--it remains a Watch, as it should, due to the uncertainly on p-type.
State College has issued an Ice Storm Warning for our PA viewing area, however.
To use a name when posting, type in your message, enter the "word verification", then under "choose an identity" tick the "name/URL" button and enter a name in the name section. Hope this helps.
Hey, it works!!
Well, now we have one less Anonymous poster. Glad to have helped.
Damn SE Ridge is like Rocky Balboa on steroids. Every storm WILL go north.
Spring will be much warmer than normal. Don't even get me started about this horrific upcoming La Nina Summer, with a MONSTER RECORD HEAT RIDGE featuring highs in the 100s/Lows in the upper 80s and so many people dying of heatstroke in Chicago that it'll make the 1995 heat outbreak in Chi-town look like a cool breeze in the spring.
Storms will crush the Midwest and north into the summer.
The big story late this spring and early summer will be the unusual heat and humidity over the Mid Atlantic, as well as snowstorms crushing the Midwest well into spring then warming up into repeated torrential rainstorms crushing the same areas over and over and over and over and over again as this record MONSTER La Nina absolutely REFUSES to give one inch through 2009. The record snows then record rainfall over the already snow-beleaguered Midwest/Northern regions of the US will be accompanied by record severe outbreaks farther south and east with time.
This will be a banner season for storm chasers
WAY over the top, Ayuud. Way over.
Calm down--this is not a prediction which would be made by experienced pros, let alone a beginner.
chance of a day off tomorrow?
Do not ever, ever, ever
ask a Buffalonion about the weather.
Believe you me, it’s a big mistake
that you should never ever make.
For he’ll go on and on forever
until you think that you will never
get away from his mad tirade
about Fahrenheit and Centigrade.
They learn it at their mothers’ knees:
it is the national disease
where they all seem quite possessed
by this strange climatic zest.
They’ll talk and talk for simply hours
on the possibilities of Snow
or the outside chance of Lake Snow should.
Thunderstorms will get them going
and they really love it when it’s snowing.
Especially they find it pleasing
to prophesy a spell of freezing.
They like their weather pretty dire
in places such as Buffalo
and when it comes to wind and gale,
they play fine tunes on Route 5 In Hamburg.
Most of all, they really get boring
explaining why it’ll soon be pouring,
and you’ll learn more than you want to know
of drizzle, rain and sleet and snow.
So I will give you this advice:
“A Buffalonian can be very nice
but keep him off all talk of weather
or you’ll be stuck with him for ever.”
What Ya Think?
That made for better reading than your predictions. Well, you did ask >wink<.
No chance of a day off tomorrow...not enough accumulation by 5 am....You can probably forget about Wednesday as well....my call is for mostly rain in the metro area, with some icing in the Southern Tier....maybe a few districts close down there, but none in Erie County...
Don and Team Wivb , I hate to say it but your blog is starting to fall apart , while there are some great posters here , many are just annoying , one day somebodies gonna come here and read the wrong info , and possibly get hurt ( sure its drastic)
We all like the storms get excited and so on , but if this storm heads on the ICE side , it will be no joke , be safe all.
Get rid of anonymous please...
concerned,
It bothers me, too, though we do try to respond to misleading posts, and our staff will continue to delete abusive posts.
Bottom line: Opinions of bloggers are just that--some are better informed than others. If the blog is not labeled as being from one of the 4 of us at WeatherWatch 4 and purports to be a forecast, it isn't. That's not to say we're always going to right, of course. But we do prepare our forecasts based on our formal academic training and many years of experience, right or wrong.
Don just a question if you can answer it , Do you think if Buffalo area MAY get a Ice Storm Warning or to early.
Also where is a good site to locate the different warning types for our area?
Like is Ice Storm , more Serious the Winter Storm and so on..
Not a whopper...Yet
It was so nice out , all that was missing was a nice cold beer ( to lazy to goto store) , still 58 degree here in Hamburg...
hamburgsnowman,
Watches, warnings and advisories can be found in a red banner right near the top of our home page at wivb.com, or you can go to the website of the National Weather Service, Buffalo Forecast Office.
An ice storm warning which verifies is, in some sense, more serious than many winter storms, because it usually involves enough ice accumulation to cause property damage and power outages.
I don't know when or if the NWS Buffalo will issue an Ice Storm Warning for WNY. That's a difficult call to make far in advance. I would suspect, however, that NYSEG and National Grid have extra manpower on some sort of standby should the worst occur.
I agree with you,concerned.Who are all these people on here predicting the weather? Let's leave that to Don, Mike and MB,nad Lindsay.It's nice to discuss and all,and these mets are gracious enough to share their thoughts with us.Let's let them do that, instead of trying to "1up" them on every forecast.
winter storm watch for south-central ontario tues. night into wed, including toronto. 5 to 10 cm of snow mixed with ice pellets and freezing rain. no mention of plain rain. this is environment canada's forecast not my prediction.
hey don, i know some posters gave you flak days back when you predicted a high of 46 F for Monday while 'others' were going with low 40's. in barrie area we hit 10 cel/50 f under some decent morning sunshine before the rain(which wasn't too heavy), but what a melt of snow! Very windy now which hopefully might help to remove some of the ponding off the roads before it freezes.
Have a good night.
Hi barrie1,
Today's 63 was an example of what I call a "runaway" downslope effect, which models simply don't handle too well. By Friday night, I'd mentioned interior sections to the east & NE of Buffalo could touch 50, but no one would dare--this early in the season--go for the temps we received today late last week. I believe the model output statistics forecast on Friday for today was for a high of 44.
With all due respect, would those of you copying and pasting forecasts and predictions from other websites kindly refrain from slamming them on this blog? If we wanted to read them, we'd go visit those sites ourselves.
Ditto that for all you 'anonymous' experts who fill this space with your temperatures, types of precipitation and so on, as if they were the gospel truth. If you indeed possess such stellar credentials, then why aren't you gainfully employed on your own television station or radio show or better yet, running your own expert blog? Spare us from your unverifiable wisdom please.
I (and I'm sure many others) come here to read or participate in the general discourse between good questions and good, reliable and responsible answers - not to have to shuffle through hundreds of useless posts with your misguided predictions. You confuse the issues AND THE INFORMATION given to us by the weather team at Ch.4. The poster who mentioned the possibility of someone being hurt by a chunk of your 'anonymous' and often hyped up forecasts is not far off the mark. One of these days....
As for 'Ontario' (big province), parts of southern and central Ontario do have a winter storm advisory issued by Environment Canada. No specifics (e.g. will it snow or rain in MY backyard) just a general, wise, be prepared to use caution and adjust your plans (driving habits)Tues nite into Wed - too soon to predict who gets what.
To my fellow Ontarian - barrie1 from Barrie - you're a good 230 miles (370 km) north of us here in the Niagara penisula and your weather is vastly different from ours here in the southern corner. We're a mere 20 miles from Buffalo and/or Niagara Falls NY and by and large 'get what they get'. I personally don't follow or rely on the Toronto forecasts because they are below the escarpment and get different weather patterns than we see here. Nor does Hamilton's weather come close to ours. Our most reliable weather predictiona have historically proven to be Ch. 4's. Hands down!! And we Canadians don't scream if there's an inch less or more snow than predicted, or if the temps are a few 'degrees' off. We've got better manners. If we want to know if schools will be closed, we'll get up in the morning and turn on the radio, it's usually where and when any school closings are announced. If you tell us to be cautious, we will be. That's all we ask.
Folks you can all help to improve the value and quality of this blog by NOT cutting and pasting the entire forecast from some other site. Give us the link, if we like it, we'll bookmark it and that's that. Share your current weather with us and that'll help the Ch. 4 mets by giving them good information they can use.
Those of you with your credentialled predictions, put your money where your fingers are...sign your posts with your real name if you have nothing to hide. Otherwise - stop typing.
Don, Mike, MB, Lindsay, I do thank you for the pertinent and honest information you continue to provide. You all deserve a raise!
MC (Mary-Catharine)
Thanks so much, Mary.
I just wanna apologize for my behavior on the blog earlier today . Posting my own forecast ( which were completely wrong)was just stupid. I will leave that work to The channel 4 weather team, and as for me, ill just listen and take notes on how to be like them when i grow up. =]
will this storm be similar to the ice storm of 76? of course it might still be rain. Any similarities.
Special Update from Meteorologist Don Paul
FLOOD WATCH Buffalo area creeks, Catt. Creek and No. PA Co's until predawn hours...WINTER STORM WATCH for all of our broadcast area 5 am through Wednesday morning...FLOOD WATCH for srn tier Tuesday evening for possible excessive rainfall...ICE STORM WARNING for nrn PA beginning at 4am Tuesday. Rain will move in this evening, and turn to Snow & Sleet (1-2" possible) by predawn hours, and to a mixture near PA. Periods of Snow & Sleet Niag Frontier Tuesday, with steadier mixed precip in the srn tier/PA. Heavier Sleet & Freezing Rain Tuesday night, with heaviest amounts in srn Tier/PA. Significant Icing is POSSIBLE (more than 1/2"), although there is a chance the Freezing Rain would turn to Rain closer to PA tomorrow night. In general, there will be a little more snow & sleet closer to Lk Ontario, and more freezing rain well south. But precip types remain quite uncertain early this evening. We'll have a complete forecast on CW 23 News at 10 and, based on new data, and Updated Forecast on News 4 at 11
he posted that in wivb
Don, this seems to be a potentially very dangerous situation. I have heard that State College is estimating a possible 2" ice accumulation for the Bradford area. When will we know what kind of precip. we can expect? Thanks again for all you do to keep our knees loose!
strbuk
Don't insult Don Paul anonymous, he is not " hyping it up."He is simply giving us a very reasonable and accurate forecast and a heads up on the storm so that people know what to expect when the walk out the door. And I personally think your on a certain substance (not steroids) that i will not say , for insulting Don. And by the way if you were honestly good enough to insult
Don at least put your name.
Anonymous: Hyping to much in this situation is warrented ,if by some chance Buffalo area get socked by the worst end of this , and any of Weather dude(ett)s on ANY channel say this is nothing , Do you relize the dangerous situation we all could be in..
Heck i'm not a pro by anymeans , I work in IT , but a 1/2 of ice could be bad , but the possible 3/4-1.5 inches mentioned in sourrounding areas could be dangerous but life threatening..
This whole winter has been a big bag of mixed nuts , we in Buffalo don't get off this easy ( not that this winter was a quiet season)..
Just to be clear, I have been quite emphatic about the uncertainty in precipitation types for this storm, and have NOT hyped it. I've explained that if the bulk of tom'w night's precip fell as freezing rain, it would be a major ice storm producing major problems. But I went out of my way to state the amount of freezing rain--especially for the srn tier, where amounts would be heavier--could still be drastically reduced by a change to just rain.
As for the Watches from the BUF NWS WFO, we are happy to relay them, as that's our job. The State College WFO feels a little more confident about p-type, so they've gone with a full blown Ice Storm Warning for nrn PA, and we've relayed that too.
I'm hoping there's a little more clarity offered by late evening model runs, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it--if I owned a farm.
However, our WeatherWatch 4Cast will be fully updated for News 4 at 11.
The wind would not only rip his shirt off but his mustache too.
Okay Don, then when WOULD you feel confident in giving more clarity as to exactly what type of precip will be falling and how much?...if it's not until it's actually occurring, that's fine, because you've said it's a tough call...just say that so then we won't be misguided prior to that....by the way, for the record, I'm still going for primarily rain for the metro area (just a hunch on how winter's gone so far and the long term history)...
OKAY ANONYMOUS YOU ARE REALLY NOT NEEDED HERE. THATS EXTREMELY INAPPROPRIATE. I HOPE YOU UNDERSTAND THE MAGNITUDE OF WORK DON PAUL DOES FOR US. THIS STORM IS VERY MUCH LIFE-THREATENING IF WE GET ALL FREEZING RAIN, SO DON'T SAY WE'RE HYPING IT UP, DON'T SAY DON PAUL IS WRONG, DON'T SAY ANYTHING. I SPEAK FOR EVERYONE WHEN I SAY COMMENTS LIKE THESE ARE NOT NECESSARY ON A BLOG.
sorry don paul, that you have to go through such torment
and let me say, too, mr. negative, that rain is a possibility, but we're not going to get that much. it looks like a shallow layer of arctic air would ensure a lot of freezing rain and sleet. oh so what about the winter, it's been unpredictable! what do you expect in buffalo? :)
Do you need a tissue, WEBW?...or, perhaps a valium?...personally, I don't plan on touching any live wires should they come down, so I don't consider it life threatening...a hurricane is life threatening...a tornado is life threatening...a severe thunderstorm COULD be life threatening....tree limbs down and power outages is not life threatening unless you touch a live wire or don't know how to properly vent a generator...quit trying to make everything like the Blizzard of '77, and see it for what it is....at the least (and most likely) a heavy rain event, at the most, widespread power outages that won't last long because high winds won't be hindering repair efforts...
mr negative,
Buffalo stands a better chance of getting more frozen precip than areas closer to PA, being somewhat closer to the colder air behind the storm. The area about which I'm being less specific is the srn tier, closer to the warmer part of the storm's circulation. I'm not sure I'd have issued an Ice Storm Warning as quickly as the State College WFO did--the GFS has nrn PA simply too warm to go w/all freezing rain, though some sheltered valleys might keep the shallow arctic air longer.
Ayuud--sorry, your list of questions had to go. I wouldn't have time to answer all of them on a quiet night, let alone the night before a complex storm.
what areas can expect the outages?
ok mr negative, if you dont think losing power is life threatening, when people with, say, diabetes need it or else they could DIE, then that makes everything else look superfluous. i wasn't even alive for the blizzard of '77 so i wouldn't know. once again, another RUDE, RUDE comment that needs to be deleted ASAP. how about you talk more weather instead of pissing everyone off, like me? it IS life threatening and i dont care what you think. people could crash, power lines could come down on cars, this may not be such a meager winter storm. if i were you, i would just shut up and maybe get some common sense about REAL weather, not your fantasized pessimistic view of everything
seriously guys like these need to be eliminated from the blog. i come on and try to talk weather, SENSIBLE weather, and now with RUDE posters of whom i will not mention any names, i feel that anything i say will be criticized. so what if i overdramatize. so what if you all think this will be a flop. it WON'T. dont make fun of don paul or me or anyone else who is trying to be sensible and enjoy this blog. you are ruining it for us, so go rain on someone else's parade, ok? geez
WS Warnings just posted for CNY around Syracuse... Buffalo to maybe follow with an advisory/warning tonight?
0z NAM out... Don what you think of the new run? Doesn't look like to much of a change.
WEBW....okay, okay I'll lay off...but just a word of friendly advice...the more you come on here yelling "Don't pick on me!!"...the more people will...didn't you go through this in middle school?!...by the way, I would never make light of a TRULY life threatening weather event...perhaps Don could enlighten us...when was the last time there was a death in WNY caused DIRECTLY by the weather...I don't mean improper ventilation of generators, heart attacks from snow shoveling, or even car accidents....I mean a lightning strike, frozen to death, or killed by a limb or wire downed from high wind or heavy icing...it just doesn't happen all that often around here...
all right a few things i need to clear up...
#1 - im not a middle schooler, huh? how about a JUNIOR in HIGH SCHOOL, okay? i know what i'm talkin about.
#2 - it doesnt matter if it is indirect or not, there are MANY instances of deaths when people die from the weather. car crashes and such DO count.
#3 - if you're that much older than me, shouldn't you AT LEAST be acting of age instead of me acting like the older one? if you wanna talk weather, then do it, but you didn't need to say "oh do you need a tissue WEBW?" you're asking for it and i dont like it. all i said was we probably aren't getting very much rain.
can someone help me out here??
no one likes getting picked on, not just me. if u want us to make fun of you, then you will understand how crappy it feels. but i won't. just lay off, please, there is no need for your immature comments.
Hey What Else,
Don't worry too much about the negative posters. The best thing to do with rude or inappropriate posts is to ignore them, and I think the pro mets should do so as well. I already have begun to do so! Eventually as those posters realize they aren't getting any attention, they will move on to some other blog where they can get a reaction.
The weather discussion here is good and I enjoy a forum where I can post a question to a pro met and get an answer back. Also, discussing the gap between what actually happens and what the forecast was is all the fun to me. That's when we learn the most.
Regards,
Mark
Why the bickering? It makes everyone sound childish and degrades this blog even more then false hype and over exagerrated personal opinions on the weather.
i'm sorry, thegeneral, i really shouldn't have been bickering.
don paul, i give you permission to delete all my comments, they are wrong.
its just that when you get so heated up from a harsh comment you almost can't help but let the impulsive side take over and unleash childish argument. i'll try not to do it again.
and great advice, mark. i REALLY need to use it now. :)
Okay, okay--let's all calm down. It's a blog, not a presidential debate.
I think the majority of the bloggers know which comments have merit and which don't (now if I could just follow my own advice!).
Let's all hold hands and sing Kum Ba Yah....
Don...will your forecast at 11 include information from new model runs, or will it be primarily the same as 10 pm?....I know you want viewers at 11 too, but I'm not certain when the model runs come in...thanks
thanks don, that made me laugh a little :) obama and hillary...
"SHAME ON YOU OBAMA!!"
just doing an impression :)
can't wait to watch the 11 news tonight, i have been working on homework, but believe me, it has been HARD with the blog and the thoughts about this next possible major ice storm. everyone stay safe and keep a lot of flashlights!
I'm so sick of hearing and seeing updates on Mckean and Potter county. Who cares about them..I'm sure they have their own news channel. No need to see them crawling across on the site and the tv all the time.
Southern Ontario is much closer to WIVB then PA..I don't see any scrolling info for them.
Still going over the 00z NAM and our latest Super Microcast run.
I will show model output on projected liquid equivalent (includes frozen, mixed, and liquid) over a 24 hour period.
NWS has decided to let the midnight shift handle whether or not to change from a Winter Storm Watch to an Ice Storm Warning or a Winter Storm Warning, meaning the decision won't be coming much before the predawn hours. The NAM is definitely the coldest model. If it were to verify, we'd be looking at significant snow on the Niag Frontier, and less of a mix. It's not only the coldest model at the sfc, but the coldest in the boundary layer. The 18z GFS has much shallower cold air, and is more aggressive with warm advection in the evening.
I don't blame the NWS for waiting on this one....
McKean & Potter don't have their own news channels. They are part and parcel of Buffalo's primary tv coverage area.
So, in layman's terms, we're gonna get a lot of something, either snow, freezing rain, sleet, rain, or a mix of all....this will probably end up being an "as it happens" event...should make for an interesting day...how about the Tuesday afternoon commute?....could there be any problems with that?...thanks
Do McKean and Potter pick up the network affiliates out of Erie, PA?...just wondering...I know Buffalo TV news is far superior to theirs, but thought they might have those available as well....I do understand what soprano is saying though....it's like when they give school closings for Byran Bergen, etc...and your like, "Where the heck is that?!"...
Greetings again,
A serious weather question. Can someone please explain what (for example) a "00z NAM" is? I have read that a lot lately and for us newbies trying to learn 'weather speak' I have no idea what that stands for. What do the numbers mean and what does the 'z' stand for? No rush for the reply either. Answer when time permits.
A suggestion might be to have a separate page where these acronyms or short form terms are explained for anyone new who is trying to understand weather speak.
Thanks!
MC
Don---
What do you think would suit WNY best for this oncoming storm?...
A winter weather advisory, Winter storm warning, or an ice storm warning?
Thanks Don!
Another Tuesday,another weather event. It has been the last 2 or 3 in a row now.
Don, is there any chance the Niagara Frontier could see a lot of ice accumulation too?... or is it mainly the southern tier that will get the freezing rain?
z refers to Zulu time (military term), which is equivalent what used to be called Greenwich Mean Time--now known as Universal Time. 5 hrs difference on standard time in our time zone.
McKean & Potter watch Buffalo, not Erie tv, and that's the way Nielsen defines them. Warren County is considered part of Erie's market.
I'm leaning toward more of the serious freezing rain being in the srn tier & PA, but the new GFS continues to be quite a bit warmer than the NAM. Mike Cejka will have the update in the AM. As for warning type, my GUESS is it would be changed to a Winter Storm Warning rather than an Ice Storm Warning because of p-type differences across the region--but I haven't chatted w/the NWS today.
Does the nws in buffalo still issue ice storm warnings?I didnt think they used that term anymore.I assumed it was balled into the winter storm warning.I assumed only PA weather service used that term.Does ny use that anymore?It seems to me alot of terms have changed or merged into others.I miss the good old fashioned travelers adviorsies.
Which do you predict they will go with.I know nothing is assured.Its 344 right now and I am assuming if everything points it will change to a warning at 5 or so.I havent found any giving any detailed info of niagara county.I know the odds are better for ice in the southern tier but no specifics for here really.
NWS 4am forcasts notes that they will upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for the area this morning. Will most likely go into effect at noon today, and possibily earlier for the Southern Tier. Still not much difference in the actual forcast, snow/sleet/ice. Should be an interesting afternoon/evening of weather to watch!