Cold Spell Won't Last Too Long...
but while it's here, it will still bring a threat to tender vegetation during the nightime hours. Of course, knowledgeable gardeners would presumably know better than to put out tender plants this soon. But many trees and plants are at an advanced state of blooming, and may face some limited damage potential. The amount of nightime cloudiness will make all the difference as to the threat of frost (no threat when it's overcast) and freezing. It does appears some srn tier/rural areas will face a freeze potential Tue and Wed nights. Temps will begin to moderate on Thursday and especially on Friday into the weekend, but a warm front to our south may produce a few showers. The weekend looks fairly mild but unsettled at this early point.
posted by Don Paul at
2:04 PM
50 Comments:
Do you think trees like maple and oak will be affected that bad? Or will it be mostly fruit trees which are more vulnerable.
Fruit trees, if there's any damage. Not maple or oak.
Again, apologies to any who respond to the problem blogger--I just want to keep this blog clear from his desperate play for attention, and that has to include any responses. May I again suggest if he shows up, please don't respond to him. It's exactly what he wants.
Hey Don; I missed the weather Monday night so I read the E-mail. Thanx this gives a good perspective on today's outlook & work from there.
Skies will become more interesting this afternoon. After brilliant sunshine has produced surface heating, the unseasonably cold air aloft associated with a cold trough of low pressure will interact with the warmer near-surface air and make it more "bubbly" or buoyant. By later this afternoon, you'll be seeing towering cumulus clouds on the increase and some Spotty Showers popping up like popcorn in a few locations. Any of these showers may contain small hail, due to the cold air aloft.
Already up to 47 at the airport for the noon report, looks like your forcast is right on as usual Don!
What's the frost/feeze potential looking like for the immediate southern and eastern burbs overnight?
Thanks Don!
It all depends on how much clearing we get. Currently, I expect evening spotty shwrs to die out, and then fairly widespread clearing late tonight, allowing even the lakeshore to drop to near the freezing mark.
So, places like OP and East Aurora are likely to see some frost. Frost/freeze conditions will be widespread in the interior of the srn tier.
It got cloudy in Amherst pretty quick!
Happy 30th(?) birthday Don. Am I close???
Heavy frost in our region overnight. Boy, that wind had bite to it today.
I noticed at 5:45 report you had some thunderstorms on tap for Saturday. Is this system going to do much? Saturday is our family BBQ and nothing makes our traditional shindig when we can all be outdoors. I'll even take spotshowers.
Enjoy your B-day.
barrie1...
Thanks. Yeah, 30! THAT's the ticket!
I doubt it will be an all day rain on Saturday, but it certainly will be threatening at times, and there could be some thunder. Not the best day, sorry to say.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY MR.PAUL:::]]]]
Don...happy birthday! Thanks for keeping the blog going. When I can't catch 4 news, I ck the blog to find out what I need to know! Many more...
Thanks for the good wishes, folks. I'm doing my age in Celsius instead of Fahrenheit. It sounds better!
We definitely could use the rain.
It's important to build up soil moisture in the early spring, and the exceptionally warm/dry April could definitely lead to excessively dry conditions later in the summer.
I know we all like sunny, warm days...I admit I enjoyed that string of days after suffering through another Buffalo winter...but a few coolish wet ones I think would be good for us right now.
HaPpY BiRtHdAy Don!! I hope you have a good one! : )
Figures Mark wouldn't show his face after his BS weather logic played out to just that BS, HA, NICE JOB FORCASTING DON! And Happy Birthday!
Happy Birthday, fellow Taurean.... So you know the pain of having snow on your birthday as well. I had mine last week. We almost got our late April snow. Thank goodness it didnt get us this time around.
Have a great year. How many Degrees Celsius are you now? (better than counting in Dog years)
:oP
Its SNOWING in Amherst (Getzville) right now! The funny thing is... it's in the mid 40's and its plain old snow, not even a mix.
I had to come on the blog and tell you that! ...And we thought we were done with the snow til next winter...
now thats gotta be a joke...otherwise Chris you should go get some sleep or something because theres NO WAY there was snow in Getzville today.
Chris must not be lying because yesterday it was snowing where I live in Egggertsville (Amherst). I don't think it was 100 percent snow but close too it.
That's graupel, not snow.
I know what graupel is don. There was some graupel but I also saw some plain old snowflakes as well.
Okay--I'll take your word for it. At my location I saw only graupel, but the mid levels are cold enough for a few flakes to sneak through to the ground.
Thank you don. I wouldnt lie about a few flakes. Just a quick question what where the dew point temps at the surface at the time of the graupel/snow? I'll take a guess of about 33 ?
Dewpoint at the NWS is 19. Probably a few degrees higher to the north.
Why is it so cold? Dry air ?
are there any chances of severe storms with the strong or atleast kind of strong cold front on saturday? or just regular thunderstorms?
Ok. I didnt believe it myself at first ether, but it was in fact snowing earlier today in Getzville (not that its that big of a deal) Im a met major, I know what graupel is... to my suprise it was just plain old snow. The temp outside was in the mid 40's so I was expecting a mix, but that was not the case. Yesterday in some of the brief afternoon rain showers, there was graupel mixed in. The brief passing snow shower that Im guessing only affected the North Amherst area was just a small tiny area on the radar that one would think nothing of. I can understand how many people dont believe me, I too thought it was too warm for snow (esp in the day time on the last day of April)... but unlike a few others on this blog, I dont play the false information game. If anyone else lives within the N. Amherst area and saw the sparse snow shower Im talking about... feel free to post! Im not going to lie... it didnt snow that hard at all... in fact, it was a light snow for about 7 min... so unless one happened to look outside within that period, you could have easily missed it.
Don-
Is there any indication this far out of any storms this Fri or Sat packing a puntch?
No indications at this time of severe wx with Saturday's storms, but it can't be totally ruled out. Some decent instability, but upper level winds don't look favorable for svr.
An early plug for a great event...The NWS will have their Open House on Sunday, June 8th. The Office has been refurbished, and it's a chance to see a truly state-of-the-art weather facility and meet some of the NWS expert staff. Outdoors, there will be displays and representatives from some universities, the military, airport snow removal and--some of us affiliated with BWEC--the Buffalo Weather Experience Center--will be there to answer questions and inform visitors of the scope and vision behind this amazing project for the waterfront.
So, as the saying goes, "Mark Your Calendar." This event has been a smash in its 3 previous iterations. There are more details at the NWS Buffalo website--just click on the link at the top.
Hope to see you there!
When you showed that it snowed in Syracuse today; I was glad I moved here to Buffalo 30 odd years ago. Because Syracuse has more snow then Buffalo most of those years. I like to stick it to my family everytime they ask me why I moved here to the Buffalo area.
I'm glad you said it won't be that hot this summer; hopefully. I like the warm weather but not the streaming kind.
Well Syracuse has once again won the golden snowball contest by the slimest margin ever in the history of the contest!
The contest which ends April 30th (even if it snows in May it won't count) has wrapped up for the 07-08 season. The final numbers!
Syracuse - 109.1
Rochester - 106.0
Buffalo - 103.8
Binghamton - 70.7
Albany - 61.6
Was a great contest this year check out goldensnowball.com to find out more about the contest!
Now that the contest is over bring on the 80's and 90's!
Good Morning Don,
As usual you are the best of all the Meteorologists out there. I see you posted Frost/Freeze warnings for the northern WNY counties. You did say it was going to get cold down here in the Southern Tier. Currently it is 25 degrees. Someone needs to talk to whoever maintains those "Climate Records". With todays technology we begin our growing season in April. Yes, April! With high tunnels, plastic mulch, floating row covers, and cold tolerant seed and plants, we are able to get going early to provide our customers the best vegetables possible from right here in WNY. I appreciate you talking about us down here as we seem to get passed over by the other stations. Your weather forecast is one of a few things that brings me in from the field and heaven help anyone who talks while you are on. Keep up the good work and no time off for you until Thanksgiving.
Shop your local farmers' market.
Southern Tier Farmer.
Amen, So. Tier Farmer!!! Eat Local Agricultural products for your own good health, as well as that of our local economy. Locally grown veggies are not only grown with fewer peticides and hormones but they also have a higher content of antioxidents and vitamins/minerals than those shipped to super markets.
And yes, Don... gardeners and farmers are LOVING you for helping us take care of our crops. Thanks again!
The pollen was so bad today when they mowed the lawn at my complex. Usually mowing the grass don't brother my allergies but today I was sneezing & itching my eyes. Was the pollen count in Town of Hamburg high today? Or do I blame on the dust & dirt that was blowing around from the mower?
By the way Happy Belated "39th" Birthday, Don. Am I being generous with the age?
Thanks--I do make it a policy for us to offer more srn tier information than our competitors.
Another good reason to purchase local veggies, as you may have read, is the reduced use of gasoline and diesel fuel in transport. I'm not sure it's accurate (as a former science writer who dealt with pesticides issues) that fewer pesticides are used, but people should remember that insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides are extremely expensive--and most farmers are using modern integrated pest management to cut down on pesticides use. Hormones are not an issue with vegetables except that 2,4-D (a common broadleaf weed killer) is a form of a plant hormone which does not bear a chemical resemblance to those used in poultry and cattle.
annie54; I'm sure the pollen count is still high, since rainfall has been sparse. It's also likely you were seriously affected by breathing in the pollen stirred up by your mowing.
Hi Don,
I saw your long range summer forecast two nights ago. I'm sure it is difficult, but when you get a chance, could you explain how they come up with these predictions?
Thanks
Anonymous--it would take me about all night to do that, to be honest. If you want to learn more, Google "Climate Prediction Center." You'll find some of the statistical, climatological, and meteorological elements which go into these outlooks. Sea surface temperatures, oscillating atmospheric and ocean surface patterns, soil moisture are just a few of the considerations.
I'm in S. Cheektowaga here and am right on the edge of this precip. We are watching the edge of the clouds but got merely a trace of precip all day. I watched as the SW skies remained scattered with clouds, sometimes overcast, but still broken up a bit, yet nothing would materialize. This happens with spring storms and we end up having to water our lawns while others are getting doused with rain.
Do I attribute that to the shadow of the lake? it just seemed weird that there was rain all around me but not over me.
The lake shadow played no role today, with SE winds. I'm seeing some elevated convection right now (ahead of the warm front), with instability above the surface. Could be some lightning soon across Ski Country.
By the way, the question about "your long range summer forecast" needs clarification. That was an outlook issued by the NWS' Climate Prediction Center, who specialize in the statistical analysis which is required to make such outlooks. While I added my own explanation, I gave visual and verbal credit to the Outlook's source, the CPC.
The long range outlook of the summer to come sounds delightful. It sounds like we'll have a comfortable one most of it.
It sounds like we gotta change our outdoor plans for Saturday because of the hit & miss showers.
still no precip in S. Chktwg. almost as if there were a giant umbrella in the sky... maybe today we'll get some?
don you couldnt have been more right, last night we were outside hanging out and i live in north collins and we saw the lightening and thunder but no precip..good call
The radar's looking favorable for rain here is S.Chkt., finally...felt a few drops and the air is so thick! come on rain!!!
Looks like one loopy warm front. Those squall lines are interesting,too, looking at the CONUS radar. I see blue at the west end of the COC. Is that cold sector going to pass us by? I hope...
No big changes in the fcast today. Activity will remain more concentrated and stronger closer to PA and to the SW, where upper lvl winds are more favorable for convection, and there is a little more surface-based instability. Won't rule out a couple of AM Shwrs Saturday morning (Sct Shwrs will become somewhat more numerous tonight, w/some thunder), but the main action should be later in the day and early evening. Cooler & drier for Sunday.
Still working on this evening's fcast, of course--new Microcast run starting to go.
will lake erie have any effect on the thunderstorms tomorrow? Perhaps pulling of the classic situation of when the thunderstorms hit lake erie they fall apart.
To a limited extent, yes. But because our boundary layer winds will be from the south and not off the lake, some re-firing of convection is likely as these storms move over land.
No indication of a svr threat, however.
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