From 60s to 20s....
As winds slowly subside, temps will be dropping to the mid/upper 20s (from the AM high of 62) by Wed dawn--with a little graupel and a few lt snow shwrs overnight. Wed will be bright & cool, with a bit of a wind chill, but temps will moderate back into the 50s on Thursday. A storm pulling up toward the Ohio Valley will bring periods of rain into WNY before Friday AM and into Friday. It currently appears the weekend will be mainly dry, with temperatures moderating back up on Sunday into a somewhat unsettled pattern early next week--although it will be seasonably mild. The peak gust at the NWS today was 47 mph, but the WeatherWatch 4 Neighborhood WeatherNet sites registered gusts to over 50 mph at quite a few locations in Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee counties, with the lightest winds to the SE of the metro area.
This was an Advisory--not a High Wind--event, with little in the way of damage. As we've pointed out many times, High Winds by meteorological standards produce widespread property damage.
This was an Advisory--not a High Wind--event, with little in the way of damage. As we've pointed out many times, High Winds by meteorological standards produce widespread property damage.
posted by Don Paul at
9:45 PM
10 Comments:
Oh yeah it was blowing for hours and now the mercury is crashing. I have a ewe in labor now and its cold out there!
A branch thats been dangling since the October Storm has finally broken free from one of my trees! I thought I would have to look at that hanging there forever!!
Sometimes the wind can clean up, too!
ugghhh! this weather is sooo lame! not exciting at all... and nothing to look forward to. Don, its prob harder keeping the weather intresting on air than it was forecasting some of those winter storms lol.
how is life going mr don paul...XD!!!
James we are nearing the end of those snowstorms you will need to get used to doing without until next fall I am afraid. You might get one or two more but you best get used that horrible sunshine beaming down on you.
Good evening Don
Nice lull in the weather, so I thought i would take the opportunity to ask you a question.
Environment Canada in Ontario gives the probability of precipitation. I don't see the point whether it is 30 or 40% chance of showers. Doesn't mean much to me. SLIGHT chance of showers would suffice.
Does the NWS use POP anywhere--or is it a local choice of the weather office.
Have you ever used POP in your career and does it really serve much of a purpose?
Thanks.
POPs are required in all NWS forecasts. They really represent the most precise way of communicating a forecaster's estimate for the chances of precipitation in a forecast area, at least in theory. If I had a paying client with critical precision needed in gauging the chances of precipitation, I would explain POPs and use them.
I haven't used them much in my career. In my experience, POPs are misunderstood by most of the public and even by a few meteorologists. For example, some folks think a 30% possibility of snow means 30% of a forecast area will receive snow. It has nothing to do with areal coverage. A 30% chance of snow for northern Erie County means there is a 30% chance that any given point in northern Erie County will receive snow.
I suppose if I made more of an effort to explain POPs to the audience, that might pay off. But for me, the more subjective term such as "slight chance" seem to work well. In my own mind, if I'm thinking 60% POPs for snow, I'm thinking it will snow, and I will drop the reference to "chance." That is certainly less precise than using POPs from a scientific standpoint, but it's one method of simplifying the forecast.
Thanks for answering.
Interesting.
please tell me this will be the last time that there is frost on the ground in the morning for a looooong time!
I remember as a kid, I used hear POPs expressed as a percentage all the time on forecasts where I grew up. Within the past 10-15 years, however, I've rarely seen it expressed that way.
Neither way really bothers me; I figure either it will rain/snow, or it won't - 50/50 odds in my book. :)
In my opinion, explaining POPs to the average viewer will bore those who already understand it, and confuse those who don't. Don and company seem to be pressed for time as it is to get through their segment during a newscast.
Speaking of that, it seems like you guys sometimes have to hurry through the last 15-20 seconds of the weather. Do you have producers off-camera telling you to speed things up? Gotta make time for another story about potholes!
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