Have We Turned the Corner?
Mostly--for awhile. Temperatures will be running above average most days next week, and after Thursday's spectacular afternoon, that's welcome news. An upper level ridge will dominate in the east much of next week. However, the GFS operational model continues to show a vigorous storm system racing by at the end of next week, which would allow a return to chillier conditions for next weekend. In the nearterm, Friday will be cooler largely due to cloud cover and occasional light rain. Saturday will probably get off to a slow start with low clouds and possible drizzle and fog early in the day, but sinking air from a weak ridge should "squish" the clouds by midday, giving way to a very nice afternoon, and a spectacular Sunday.
posted by Don Paul at
9:44 PM
16 Comments:
Its about time! We had a pretty good winter as far as snow and storms go. Im wondering what the outlook says for our area for this coming summer... whether it will be cooler, warmer, wetter, or pretty dry... Im not too sure what to think. With where we live, and many other factors thought of, I think having a stormy and warmer than usial summer is not out of the question. But we wont really know til it gets here. Spring really hasent "sprung" here just yet... and I suppose its a little late. When it does get here, I along with many other people in WNY will be spending a lot of time outside where I love to be!
Things may be calm now (the inbetween time between winter and spring) but just know that severe spring thunderstorms will soon be upon us, as they are just about every spring. These storms are exciting to watch, but then again, they can really do some damage!
Most years, the most active time for severe weather in the Great Lakes tends to be late spring and early summer. In many cases, though, the late spring chilly waters of Lk Erie tend to offer some protection from severe weather while a city like Detroit, with more of a prevailing land breeze from the SW tends to get many more violent storms than does Buffalo.
Don...my how quite the blog gets when the weather gets nicer. I hope you keep it up even during the boring weather season. Any early prediction on how the summer will be, or is that similar to reading the Farmers Almanac?
yes, turn that corner and dont look back. I know Don doesnt buy into the snow counting thing, but my family has done it for many decades and its been accurate all that time, with only one or two snows off if any in a given year. This year I counted 35 snows (based on the date of the first snow and the new moon before that) We got exactly 35 snows so far...I guess we could get some freak storm later in the month, its not uncommon, but as far as snowcounting goes..WE'RE DONE!!!!
Next fall I'll let folks in on how to count the snow. I found this blog after counting began and I wanted to let you all see how accurate it is at the end of the season. Now that I may have some folks interested, next fall as the first snow approaches I'll give out the formula to folks. Its a fun way to pass the winter by (and its a relief to know when theres only 4 snows left when it seems like the winter will go on forever!)
Cheers!
Mr. Don, Although Buffalo misses severe weather a lot I believe the lake breeze actually causes more storms on the edge of the breeze, here in boston we sometimes get the edge of the lake breeze and get thunderstorms, some severe.
Rain is ending from west to east tonight. Low clouds may give way to patchy drizzle and fog overnight, but skies will clear out in time for the weekend. Sunshine is back tomorrow and on Sunday. Saturday's Highs around 50 and Sunday's Highs in the low 60s. It's a great chance to get out and enjoy the ole outdoors!
Don Paul..
Any comments on what the gfs is showing during the end of next week because it kinda shows a huge storm system that could potentially bring us some chillier conditions and wintry precip.
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We are still here. Maybe some dramatic thunderstorms or a heat wave will stir up some weather fever, Don. I have been lambing and that means little time to idle on the computer. I think I am done now. The weather has been excellent for most of my lambing and I can sleep knowing no lambs will get chilled.
Saturday AM Update:
Stubborn AM clouds will give way to afternoon sunshine and seasonable temps today. Tonight with both clear skies and light winds temps will take a dive...especially in the colder S. Tier Valleys. We can expect temps to range from the M-U20's - L30's. Despite the cool start on Sunday, temps will rebound nicely as many spots will get to 60 degrees with full sunshine from start to finish. A few more clouds will work in Sunday night and Monday as a weak disturbance approaches. This may spawn a few sct'd rain showers late Monday night and early Tuesday. However, temps will remain above average through the week. The best chance of rain will arrive on Friday.
whoo i am THRILLED about this warmer weather. out with the chill, in with the heat!
60 degrees+ tomorrow is going to feel like a vacation. it has been a LOOOOONG winter and i am just waiting for all those big piles of snow to melt and the trees to start budding and then i will know it is truly spring!!!
i am also interested along with adam about the summer outlook. are there any hints at a prolonged heat wave or above average tempeeratures, or will it be rainy and cool most of the time?
WEBW: After a lengthy stretch of springlike weather this week, next weekend is showing signs of yet another cool down. While daytime temps this week will average in the 50s and low 60s, next weekend, a storm system will usher in unseasonably chilly air with temps dropping through the 40s and 30s. Spring is here, but don't get too used to warmer weather lasting for the long term just yet.
MB
I know next weekend is a long way off, but will this storm system bring some snow, if only a coating to WNY? Or just a cool and rainy event? Don't want to put a damper on the wonderful weather over the next few days, but I think I'll leave the lawn chair in the garage rafter for a while yet.
Barrie1: It is much too early to make such a prognostication so far out into the long-range. The extended guidance is generally used to predict weather "trends" and not specific precipitation types. The trend is for WNY to turn sharply colder by the end of next weekend into the following week. If cold air is deep enough, yes, there will be snow, but again, I will not venture to have that written in stone just yet.
Appreciate your answer, and laying out for me how extended guidance is rather about "trends" moreso than precip.
Learn something new every day. Guess that's why the site here exists.
Have a good evening.
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