Only Minor Variations on a Theme....
The warmth will continue largely unabated this week, with a cooler pattern change likely holding off until later Saturday or Saturday night. A weak cool front will cross the region Wednesday, but moisture and dynamics to make showers will be sparse. A better chance for Shwrs & Tshwrs will arrive by Saturday, with the approach of a slow-moving cold front. After that front fights its way through, significantly cooler conditions will arrive for a few days.
posted by Don Paul at
12:22 PM
18 Comments:
Cancel the word "significantly" in cooler conditions developing after Saturday.
Now that I've had the chance to go through the morning model runs, that cooldown looks much less impressive than it did late last week. So, after a warm week, we will transition to a "less warm" pattern by Sunday into early next week--but still a Mild pattern by any measure.
Good afternoon Don
Temperatures still above normal with the passage of the cold front in Sunday?
In my neck of the woods where there was a flooding warning a week ago, there is now a ban on outdoor burning.
I know it is impossible to predict, I assume, but wonder if this dry spell will be prolonged in nature. What happen to April showers brings May flowers?
Nice wording. I meant
..on Sunday
...happens to April
Must have heatstroke.
Hi Barrie1,
The wildflowers are really exploding in Toronto parks so April showers may be irrelevant where May flowers are concerned...i.e. the ground is already saturated from March snows so more rain is not needed...yet. I assume the situation in your area is much the same.
Yes, we have some flowers and the grass is greening, but a 30 acre brush fire to our north(orillia-area)was the result of backyard burning. There have been three in the past week and there is a fire ban across all of Muskoka.
That's why I was asking Don if there was any decent precip. amounts as far as his weather eye can see.
Im glad the cooldown looks less impressive! Im lovin' this weather we're havin!!
How long do you think the cooler temps coming this wknd will stick around? Only a few days... then back to the temps we're having right now?
Most of the wildfire problems this spring have been caused by the extraordinarily low humidity we had into this past weekend, in which dead vegetation turns tinder dry. Here in WNY, most locales have a decent precipitation surplus for the year so far. But that surplus will shrink through this workweek, though barrie1 may get more shower activity out of Wednesday's front than we will.
After this warm spell wanes during the weekend, a return to temps in the upper 70s and 80s looks unlikely for a while--with temps possibily running a couple of degrees below normal for a few days. But no sharp cooldowns are in sight.
The pattern is almost perfect we are in. Think of it this way, for farmers, the dry weather helps the fields dry out so they can begin seeding, then the rain this weekend will hlp keep the soil wet making a good start to growing season. Secondly, the warm weather has all the trees and bushes blooming and making everyhting look nice, although it is April after all. I guess it should be raining, o well I ain't complaining.
Don,
I respect your knowledge of climate phenomena and your common sense approach. This, being "earth day" I would like to hear your take about this mass hysteria taking place over this global warming hoax. Please don't be intimidated by the "politically correct crowd..speak your mind.
The way you framed your question, anonymous, makes it a loaded one.
Global warming is certainly no hoax. Growing seasons have been lengthening for several decades (including ours), virtually every glacier is in retreat, sea surface and near surface temperatures have been rising, and sea levels have been rising from both ice meltoff and from the expansion of water due to its heating. The evidence that global warming is real is overwhelming, even though this past year did not show as much of that trend (there will be brief interruptions, but you can't ever go by a single year or two).
As for how much mankind is responsible for that warming, that is more uncertain in my mind. The majority of those in the research fields of atmospheric science, including chemistry, feel anthropogenic warming is a near certainty, and that it's a substantial contribution. But the very small number of credible dissenters (Rush Limbaugh is NOT credible on this issue in the least) is growing. So my bottom line view: We probably do have a significant impact on warming. But as for a dominant impact, of that I'm far from being convinced and am more skeptical on that question. Consensus is not certainty, and the majority has been proven wrong before--such as all the virologists who told Jonas Salk he wouldn't be able to do what he ended up doing.
Do you think that Global Warming is a man-made issue or just a natural cycle of the earth. Isn't there so much we don't know as we've only been recording weather for a little over 100 years?
It looks as though the "cool-down" expected for this weekend wont be as much of a cooldown as first thought... many sources are calling for high temps in the low to mid 60's both days this weekend... with some showers around.
...Just noticed that WGRZ, WKBW and TWC have temps on Saturday at or just below the 70 degree mark. Sunday in general looks to be in the mid to upper 60's now... not really the cooldown we were looking at a few days ago, but thats a good thing!
Don--
Just wondering... has any "summer outlook" come out for the great lakes region/ WNY? If so, what have you heard/ read so far? Im wondering if we could be lined up for a warmer than average summer, with wetter or maybe drier conditions?? I always take those outlooks with a grain of salt though haha...
Paul,
I thought I answered that in the post just above yours. It's not impossible that this period of warming isn't connected with us, but it's highly unlikely. Most paleoclimatological evidence points to a period of global cooling which would have been in place, and the most likely culprit for the warming is the added greenhouse gasses industrialization has put into the atmosphere. Nothing is absolutely certain here, but there is little supportive evidence that solar input has increased and is causing the warming, nor is there much evidence that other natural factors come into play. The notion that we are "too puny" to affect the earth's climate is generally put forth by nonscientists like Limbaugh who lack the background to make such a judgment. The physics and chemistry of the atmosphere tell otherwise.
andy,
If you read the very first comment on this thread--from me-- you'll note the phrase "that cooldown looks much less impressive than it did last week."
Sunday, at this point, looks to be in the lower, not upper 60s. There may be another warmup on Monday with Shwrs & Tstorms to follow from a vigorous storm system, but that's from the operational GFS. Other global models do not support that scenario yet, and that would be a good thing. Because if the GFS were right, we'd struggle to hit 50 on Tuesday, in the wake of that storm system.
If you want to post forecasts from other sources on here, that's allowed. But don't expect to get much reaction from me, andy. They do our work, and we do ours.
Forgot to answer you, chris;
As I posted last week on another thread, there is nothing to hang my hat on for a summer outlook at this point. Summer outlooks are generally less reliable than winter outlooks because patterns are often ill-defined at this latitude.
Mr. Don,
You said there would be a lake shadow tomorrow, then could the edge of the breeze spark thunderstorms? I know in summer this happens with lake shadows.
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