Sharp Cooldown Early Next Week?
The Tuesday operational GFS hinted strongly at a vigorous upper low bringing sharply cooler wx to WNY by next Tuesday. This model, however, was at odds with the European. In Wednesday's 12z run, this trend has solidified and WNY looks more likely to suffer a rude awakening for a couple of days next week. A vigorous low may bring a couple of rounds of showers & tshowers across the region on Monday, with a sped-up cold front likely to take temps down from the 60s into the 50s, along with gusty winds. But by Tuesday, we'll see highs in the 40s, with a few rain showers--and a few snowflakes may be seen in the hills. This unseasonable chill will last into Wednesday, before moderation returns by Thursday.
posted by Don Paul at
12:42 PM
88 Comments:
hello Don,
i ve been watching your weather forcasts way back when both our hair was darker and belly's smaller..LOLOL anyway i ve noticed that you seem perplexed at times with the weather. is our weather becoming more complicated? or with all the new technology just throwing you for a loop? thanks paul (kenmore)
No more perplexed than usual, except when trying to make my jetstream arrows behave on screen....
any chance of convection with the cold front on Monday?
marinecore...the answer is right at the top of this thread in the opening discussion.
oooo my bad
Don just want to poke at this idea, know it's got almost 0% chance of occuring but could use some dissucssion.
Lake Effect in the Monday-Wednesday time? Could it happen this late in the season? I'm not a pro with interpreting the models but a few runs show a low moving up into the lake with a good amount of colder air filtering down on the backside. The 0 line really doesnt fully seem to overtake us but gets pretty close. If enough cold air came in on the backside and this low held a track just to our west with a W-SW over the now 36 degree lake, could something like that happen? Obviously I wouldn't be expecting anything huge but maybe a rain/wet mixed in snow band even?
Thanks!
The 18z run of the operational GFS is not QUITE as cold for Tue-Wed as the previous 2 runs. With that in mind, I've adjusted high temps up from the upper 40s to about 51. While I can't eliminate the possibility of a few snowflakes in the hills, the temperatures at 850mb/5000' now look just a bit too warm for those flakes.
Still, this will be a rude awakening for a couple of days after the amazing pattern we've had--7 straight days of 70+ high temps. If we hit 70 on Thursday, that ties the April record for the most consecutive 70+ days.
Typo on last post: "anything other than convective cells" should have just read "convective cells are what you get" when the sun is so high in the sky.
Not to rush you Don, but any comments on the 0z GFS? I know we are still talkin a ways out but looks like it has flipped back to a colder idea again looking at Tuesday into Wednesday.
Yes, the 00z and now the 06z runs are somewhat colder again. Because the pocket of the coldest air is going to be quite small, it's better to err on the side of conservatism right now, since a displacement further to the SW of us will leave us somewhat "less cold." The European is a little less cold than the GFS as well, so this will be a tough call so far out as to whether there are mixed showers or just showers.
any chance of severe weather with that cold front on Saturday? I now the SPC doesn't have WNY under anything but do you think we could see severe or atleast strong storms?
It's certainly not out of the question. If we get some sunshine in the AM, that heating would provide more surface-based instability and help produce some more intense storms. If we were to be overcast all day without that additional heating, the chances for strong storms would be much lower.
I am no weather expert(really?), but I can say that the cool down is not a surprise. Don--- you and the rest of the weather team at CH 4 have been giving us a heads up about this downward trend for at least a week.
Don hit the nail on the head with his late post on April 23rd when he upped the temps from the mid 40's to 51 BUT said what was coming was going to be a 'rude awakening.'
So, Don has since rolled the temp. back a few degrees. It is still going to be a rude awakening.
I just hope we get a few t-storms out of what's on the way---they don't need to be severe---just some good ol thunder and lightning.
Have a good evening Don.
Ooops.
that anonymous posting was actually mine.
Hit the wrong title.
All global models (those which go out far enough in time) now on track for unseasonably cold and unsettled pattern next week, with the real chill moving in Monday night behind a vigorous, wet storm system. The operational GFS is the coldest model, but the European has gone colder today as well. The Canadian GEM is not QUITE as cold, but it's cold enough. A cutoff upper level low (a low cut off from the prevailing westerlies to move it along to the east)will keep this cold, unstable air in place over the ern Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley from Tue into Friday, with only slow moderation developing by next weekend. Higher elevations are likely to see a little snow or snow mixed with rain--the best chance during the nightime hours, due to some solar insolation in the daytime.
This is the season in which cutoff lows and blocked patterns are climatologically favored, as I posted 2 weeks ago. If you're stuck under a blocked ridge, you're in great shape. If you're stuck under a blocked low, the opposite is true.
On another note, the NWS' Steve McLaughlin sent out the Seasonal Snowfall Summary this evening. I don't have the time to go into it in detail, but it's been a interesting cold weather season. The NWS had 103.8", (most synoptic; little mesoscale/lake effect) which is above normal, but Lockport's snow spotter came in with 106." It's nearly unheard of for Lockport to outdo the airport, but Niagara County had the deeper cold air with our mixed synoptic storms this winter, along with lake enhancement. And, amazingly, the South Buffalo snow spotter came in with 112." Perrysburg was tops at 212", but many srn tier locations did pick up plenty of lake effect snow and had some normally hefty totals. This summary, for all the counties across wrn and nrn NY in the Buffalo WFO's forecast area, should be on the website soon, if not already.
Mark's Magic 8 Ball says "temps not so friendly next week"...
lol!
I have some tender plants outside getting used to the sun....do you think I would need to pull those inside next week?
Sounds like the bulk of next week will be a wash. We've been really spoiled these past few days. I look forward to getting the kids outside and having our meals on the patio...but it looks like we'll be inside for a few days, eh?
Hey Don. I'm not much of an expert at all (none actually) , But im just wondering with the lake temps up to 37 degrees and with the cold air over the lake water do you think anyone could see any lake snow or lake enhanced snow showers of some kind (especially at night time)?
Thanks for your time Don!
I'm looking forward to watching your updated forecast tonight at 11.
Some lake enhancement is possible, but pure lake effect is less likely. In the typical lake effect situation, you like to see a temperature difference of around 13 degrees from the lake sfc up to 850mb/5000'. The lapse rate in temperature will come up shy of that differential, so organized bands of lake snow (which could happen only at night, minus solar insulation this late in the season) would have a tough time getting together.
Don ,
Thanks for answering my question. So your saying that lake enhanced rain/snow showers may occur but an organized band will be very unlikely (even at night). And, I was also wondering where will the rain/snow squalls/showers most likely fall? Erie,Niagara,Orleans,Genesse, Wyoming ,Chautauqua,Cattarrugus ,Allegheny? Any chance of accumulation on grassy surface ect...? Thanks
Another quick question don,
I was just wondering what was the latest date that the airport has observed snow even if it did not stick? And what was the latest date the airport received measurable snowfall?
Thanks!
During the daytime, showers will tend to come in convective waves during this cold period. Although only liquid will fall during the days at lowever elevations, there may be small hail and graupel. The boundary layer winds seem to favor more focus at night over the higher elevations.
I don't have the latest snowfall info handy. But I can tell you that on Mother's Day in 1989, we had around 6" of slushy snow in the metro area.
So it doesn't look like the metro area/north towns will see any snow?
And if areas in the higher elevations see some accumulation on tree limbs, do you think there could be scattered fallen tree branches with trees in bloom?
awww...here it comes....
Hey Don So it still doesn't look like the metro area/north towns will see any snow?
And if areas in the higher elevations see some accumulation on tree limbs, do you think there could be scattered fallen tree branches with trees in bloom?
Right now I wouldn't expect any fallen branches, since leaves are still small. What's of greater concern is the blossoming stage of delicate fruit trees. It's too early to tell whether there'll be any accumulation in the hills. The metro area could see some flakes at night, but the chance for accumulation (which looks limited) would be elevation driven.
Still waiting for a response from our artiste d' bull....
Where I live in Amherst some trees have leaves that are fully blossomed and ready for summer while others are still bare.Also what about how much snow would it take to bring down tree limbs that are in just about "full leaf ?"
Don't know how much snow it would take, pondhockey.
I haven't seen any fully grown leaves myself. Blossoms, yes. Leaves, no.
Precip amounts indicated for late Mon night-Wed don't look impressive, liquid, mixed, or frozen, so at this point I wouldn't worry about it. Fruit growers have more to worry about from nightime cold temperatures. Any unexpected clearing at night would allow sub-freezing temps.
So your advising to bringin in the tender vegetation eh?
I think that's fair to say.
It should be noted the European model is not as cold as the operational GFS, and is much faster with the upper low moving out, allowing lateweek moderation. The GFS has an inherent cold bias (which has been reduced in recent model adjustments), and is the coldest of the models. So, at this point, it represents the worst case scenario--which is approximately what I've been going with, based on what I'm seeing upsteam in the upper atmosphere. However, the European has been just as consistent with a somewhat "less cold" forecast.
I think pond asked about late season snow events, I took a look at the Buffalo Weather History and they have a write up on the May 89 event...
"
May 1989
7th-8th A late season snowstorm dropped up to twelve inches of snow across the western southern tier, Niagara Frontier and the Finger Lakes area. At Buffalo just under eight inches was recorded while at Rochester just over 10 inches fell. The snowfall established many new weather records for both cities. The snow covered the entire ten county area. The heavy, wet snow downed power lines and trees which took down more power lines when they fell. As lines fell, power poles were snapped. Nearly 13,000 customers were without electricity in much of Orleans and parts of northeast Genesee and western Monroe counties. Numerous scattered minor outages were also reported. Some roofs collapsed from the weight of the snow. Plows and salters were called out to clear roadways, though much of the snow was melting as it fell.
"
Thanks for answering my question thegeneral!
I appreciate it .
Hey don would you check out my page about lake effect snow and tell me what you think? maybe give me some tips or a personal opinion on it? i would love to get some advice from an expertise like yourself.
www.wnylakesnow.weebly.com
Thanks!
My time is limited, pondhockey. It's a good effort, but needs a little more work. Do you have AccuWeather's permission to post their forecast? They generally don't give away their products for free. Veers, by the way, does not equate to "changes." When wind is veering, that means its directional orientation is shifting clockwise, say, from south to west. Backing is the oppposite. The lake snow maps should be properly credited to the NWS.
You're off to a decent start, but you need to expand on the lake effect explanation, and clean up some of the grammar (don't worry--I make plenty of my own errors).
Thanks for the advice and your time
Don!
I appreciate it!
And we WNY'ers thought spring was here to stay....
Hey don been working on my site for a little bit. I know your a very busy man ,and I respect that,but if you could be ever so kind as to take a look at my website again and tell me what you think about the changes i have made. I would greatly appreciate your opinion!
www.wnylakesnow.weebly.com
Thanks!
Please be sure to read my blog Don.
Thanks!
If you do not see my new post you may have to refresh the page , sorry for the inconvenience.
btw Don check out my how LES works section and then refresh the page I added alot of new info and graphics. Hope you like it.
pondhockey,
I suggest you have a teacher look it over. Sorry, I'm out of time.
So the buds on trees and bushes, the flowers, and growing season are all ahead of schedg this year. Low temps next wk are supposed to be at 32 degrees or just below/above. That cant be good for everything that started to bloom.
Hey Don;
The Snow you're forecasting for Tuesday & Wednesday that ain't for the Metro Area,right? Because we need to take out our Dad for Doctor App'ts & we need semi-perfect forecast.
uummm yea with all this sunshine does that increase the thunderstorm threat a lot or a little. Even if there is a lake breeze it seems like a moderate breeze, not a 20-30 with gusts to 40 which would shadow all of the 3 western counties, seems to me that the thunderstorm threat is quite high. Hopefully Buffalo doesn't get wrooked like last year.
marine,
There will be Tstorms, but conditions for severe weather are not favorable (though not impossible). Sunshine is one ingredient, but we'll be losing that shortly. Dewpoints are not high enough, and wind fields aloft are marginal.
annie, no measurable snow in the metro area.
All of Mark's posts and responses to him, including mine, have been deleted. For those of you who commented on his posts, hope that doesn't offend you. Too much time and space, especially on my part, was spent on dealing with his dishonesty.
If he returns on a more honest basis and doesn't play transparent games, that's fine. If he starts the same nonsense again, he's gone.
wow, the sun came back out and its warmed up even more, I really don't see any rain coming, maybe it won't rain. though i hope it does.
I see you have dropped your temperature for Tuesday night down to 29 degrees any chance for acc. snow in the northtowns?
Mark , If your so good then tell me how much snow will fall in Amherst on Tuesday night?
" But at least respect that I've been more right than you on this upcoming cold outbreak. "
How can you have been more right about something that hasn't even happened yet? Amazing.
Mark's gone, and will continue to be gone unless and until the dishonesty ceases.
By the way, Lindsay dropped Tuesday's high to 42, not me. I'm off duty.
I completely agree dw.
nicely said.
I hope it gets up to whatever Don says so he can rub it in your face mark. At least he can back his forecast up with data and models all you have is yourself and nothing but yourself. As far as I'm concerned at 2 year old is just as good as you, all he has to say is 42 and hes just as good as you , he doesn't know why it will be 42 and neither do you.
Do you agree with Lindsay's 42 Don?
You still didn't answer Don's question yet!
WHERE DID YOU GET YOUR DATA FROM?!?!
You seem to not have an answer Mark.
check out the storms over chatauqua county, moving nne toward southern erie county, they should miss buffalo though.
People just north of Jamestown are in a wicked cell right now. Very nice line of storm. I also think they will miss Buffalo ,maybe hit Blasdell/Lackawanna and then move through Buffalo's eastern suburbs.
Also a nice cell moving just north of Rochester.
we just had a big gust of wind here in boston and tons of pollen in the air, storms are coming, and they look big.
Request to our friends on this blog: "Mark" obviously enjoys pushing buttons and craves attention. He's gotten far more of the latter, mainly from me, than he deserves.
His posts will be deleted when time allows, but it's my opinion that however long a post of his remains up the most effective response from here on out is to completely ignore him.
pondhockey,
Each of us prepares our own forecast based on our own analysis. I haven't looked at much data today (since I'm off), but I have the highest confidence in my colleagues.
And with great respect we all have great confidence in you and your colleagues, and we all know you provide us with only the best forecast in all of WNY.
Does Mike Cejka have an account for this blog ? I have never gotten the chance to talk to him on this blog yet.
Wow, judging by what radar indicates is passing north of Rochester it looks like WNY may have dodged a bullet! We don't often see fifty thousand foot tops around here so early in the season.
I agree howieh , those are some nasty cells.Looks like something that would happen in August or September.
Rochester got rocked.
Sun is out in Amherst but it got might chilly . My thermometer says 55
On a lighter note, I see that the NWS is forecasting the upper 40s for Tuesday. Us mets are all over the place!!!
I don't get too focused on forecased daytime highs that are still a few days away. There is often change, as is the case with the cool down. Plus 3C/37 Farh was the mark set by Environment Canada on Friday for our area for this coming Tuesday, now it is 7C/45 F. Nevertheless, still cool!
Just wondering if rainfall totals will add up to anything Monday(WNY in particular for you folks, but also us).
Regards,
Barrie1...looks like the axis of heavy moisture will be affecting your area, too early Monday.
Are there now signs of a rebound by Friday? The NWS discussion said the models have a return southwesterly flow.
Is there any truth to the rumor that this is the last year for daylight savings?
Marinecore3008: Yes, indeed. This next cool spell will be short-lived, so a rebound is expected by the end of the week. However, long-range guidance hints at more temperature swings down the road. Spring in general, is typically a "transitional" time of the year, so dramatic weather changes can be commonplace.
Mike: Not to my knowledge.
MB--
You talked about the chance for flooding Mon/ Mon morning. How much rain do you think the Niagara Frontier could see?
Yah Mary Beth;
How much rain is there going to be? Because where we live when it rain the ground gets real muddy. So we hope it don't rain that much even though the farmers could use it; as well as grounds that are used to burn things.
Chris and Annie54: Guidance suggests there is the potential for 1" of rain, and this could fall in a relatively short period of time.
Thank You Mary Beth
For someone such as myself who is away on business, and cant watch WIVB's weather cast to find out what tomorrow will bring... what can I expect? Im pretty sure it is supposed to rain...
Anonymous: Golf on CBS went into sudden death and pushed back our 6pm Newscast. So here's the scoop: rain will arrive after midnight and turn steady (and heavy in spots) toward morning. Guidance suggests we could pick up .5" to just over an 1" of rain on Monday. Temps will be cooler tomorrow with highs in the 50s. Unseasonbly chilly air arrives Tuesday with highs in the 40s. FYI, we will certainly be on at 10pm on CW23 and at 11pm on News 4...so you can tune in then.
MB can you give us your forcast.Please do because i missed it do to golf.Why is golf always on 4 why cant it be on channal 2 or 7.It work out knowing those news casts are like listining to a buch of little kids lol.
Thanks for the update Mary Beth! We do afterall need the rain...
MB, Im guessing that it is pretty rare to have so many nice warm days in the 70's and 80's this time in April as we just had. I believe the average temp we should be at is 57-58 degrees... if we were to not have the above average temps we had last week, and the wk before that, I would have to think that there wouldnt be leaves on the trees already, and the flowers wouldnt have bloomed yet. One night this upcoming week the low is supposed to get down near the freezing mark... that cant be good! I see that so many people have planted flowers and put up their hanging plants... I hope they can save them when the real cold gets here. I dont think many ppl know how unusial temps like what we just had are this time of year. The owner of Mene's garden center on the blvd in Amherst said this is the earliest spring he can remember... he said were ahead of sched by 2.5-4 weeks with our spring (meaning leaves on trees and flowers blooming etc) Im hoping the warm weather comes back soon though!
Yea, I agree with Chris. This is a very early spring we're having. Usialy I dont start cutting my lawn a week or two from now, and Ive cut it 2 times already! My huge lilack bush already has its purple flowers on it too. I dont usialy get flowers blooming on that thing til May! It just doesnt feel normal to go from the high 70's-80's to near the freezing mark with some snow in the forecast... what a sharp change! I too want the warm weather back!
Chris: Indeed, it's unusual to have a stretch of 70/80 degree days in early Spring here in WNY. The colder air coming into town tomorrow night and Tuesday will be short-lived. Temps will start to moderate on Wednesday and we should get into the upper 60s by the end of the week.
It's clouding up here as expected I sure hope we do get a little rain out of this. It's too dry here now and my lawn looks really sad. I just shut the sheep in so the wee lambs don't get wet.
Time to say goodbye to this glorious weekend and wake up tomorrow to a dark, wet Monday....ugh....
Tuesday may be cold, but at least it wont be Monday!
Oh happy day this drizzle is greening up everything. April showers bring May flowers as the old saying goes. The farmers down here have been plowing and its about time to think about planting. The soil was dry as a bone from a week of the heat! We haven't had any thunder or heavy rain here in my part of Chautauqua County today just drizzle.
Few snowflakes mixed in with the rain earlier this morning.
Now just hit and miss showers.
Long range this week doesn't look too appealing. Mind you, the streak of sunny weather and warm temps we had should have been the surprise rather than the cooler/showery conditions typical of April.
As Gimmer noted--things are greening, so there is a silver(green) lining to all of this.
Does seem strange around here to see people back in their winter coats.
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