Warmup Looks More Impressive
A dry workweek, starting out chilly but becoming truly springlike on Wednesday. The typical cooling closer to Lk Erie & the Niag Rvr, however, will hold metro area, Grand Island, wrn Niag & NW Erie Co high temps back with a SW flow to the 50s on Wed & Thur. As you move further inland, afternoon temps will reach the mid/upper 60s on Wed, and some spots will make it into the 70s on Thursday. A backdoor cold front will allow temps to cool a little for next weekend.
posted by Don Paul at
12:15 PM
23 Comments:
The ice boom removal will begin on Tuesday. NOW spring is official!
I've had several emails asking when the boom would be removed, which gives me the message there are people who still strongly suspect the ice boom retards the start of spring. I believe we had a thread on this topic when we started the blog last year, but to put it succinctly--there is absolutely no evidence the ice boom has a measurable effect on our weather or the start of spring.
This weather is so grand. I have been enjoying spring so much. I see that the week looks excellent with more high pressure. Two Thumbs up for this trend! If the ice boom is coming out than spring is here for real!
Mr don,
I thouhgt they pulled the boom out with 250 or less square miles of ice, theres like not even 50 square miles today, and they started pulling it out.
o by the way, the march snowspotter info is in, looks like perrysburg is the winner with 212 inches. Most of southern erie, wyoming, chatauqua, and Cattaragus county had 150 to 200 inches except for the I-86 corridor which had much less. areas north seem to have 80 to 100 inches. Looks like areas south of Buffalo still had more.
Well,Don, looks like we made it through another winter. Thanks for being here, and all of your tremendously accurate forcasting. I really appreciate you and your team.
Thanks eeed. As is often the case, it was a long winter, too. Particularly when you take into account the snow and cold of March.
I'd still have to rank it as one of the most challenging winters I can remember from a forecasting standpoint, with so many storms featuring only shallow arctic air (often due to the vigorous la nina which we had until recently). That always makes for p-type calls which are extraordinarily difficult.
It sure seemed like a lot of the storms, especially late in the season, followed the same pattern.I can't remember a winter either, where we dealt with so much potential and actual sleet/frezzing rain.
Mr. Don, you said it might get very warm on Saturday, so far this april has been quite warm, how is this april ranking amongst other april's in the past. does it look like the warmth will continue? I hope it does so I can go fishing at Strugeon Point, lake is way too cold right now. How does the future look?
Don
Kudos to you folks for being on top of all those winter storms we had.
I can't recall a winter in many years in south-central Ontario where not only did we get a lot of snow, but also such a mixture of events--wild winds, heavy rain and even the odd thunderstorm to boot.
And a winter where much of the snow we received was as result of storm systems rather than LES off Huron and Georgian Bay. In previous years, when winter didn't always give us decent storms , we could still count on the LES machine to give us something.
You made mention of la nina in a blog earlier today.
Is it no longer a factor that could impact spring/summer conditions or is there something else lurking that may dictate the type of summer we could have?
Thanks
marinecore; April is running milder than average, but not by an extraordinary margin. It will be turning cooler again late next week, based on the operational GFS's last few runs. Still too early to tell if this will be a fundamental pattern change to a longer lasting cooldown--the GFS beyond 180 hours in the warmer months is even less reliable than it is in the winter, because patterns are less well defined.
La nina is weakening now. It's not likely to have much of an effect on our summer. There is absolutely nothing to "hang your hat on" as far as predicting the tendencies for our summer weather, at this point.
Don...I too throw kudos out to you. I find myself looking at your blog to see what the weather will be. The blog sure added some "fun" to the winter weather, if that is possible. Hope you keep it up during the real "fun" season!
Somebody call all the old people in Florida and tell them they can come back to Buffalo now. The weather's fine!!!!!!
Oh its so great....snow is soooo far away from us now!
Thanks again Don and team for the great reliable forecasting over the winter months. I'm looking forward to the spring lightening show....any indications of storms coming along with this warmth?
Thanks again!
wow its already 67 degrees here in southern erie county and its only 10:10am.
Thanks very much for the kind words, gang. Means a lot, especially after a tough forecasting season.
sabresfan, next sign of any convection as of yesterday (just starting my work this AM)was Wednesday, though it didn't look overly impressive.
Noticed your forecast Don where you mentioned the cool air in Denver and Salt Lake City.
Pity the good folks in central/western Saskatchewan. While spring snowstorms aren't out of the question in the Canadian Prairies, Environment Canada is giving folks there the heads up about a storm Saturday that could last into Tuesday with up to 50 cm/20 inches of wet snow, near blizzard conditions and travel conditions that might be impossible by Sunday. Even for them, that is crazy for mid-April.
I always find big weather events anywhere in North America interesting and thought I'd share what could be a real dicy time in that wonderful wheat growing province.
Anyways, have a good evening.
Back outside to rake the lawn. And I am not complaining.
This will be an unusually long stretch of mild to warm days for so early in the season around these parts. We will begin to cool somewhat next Thursday, and the operational GFS continues to show more significant cooling by next weekend. That said, Saturday will be the warmest day since early October last year, and parts of the Niagara Frontier will likely hit the 80 degree mark. Olean, in fact, hit 80 today at our Neighborhood WeatherNet site, while Buffalo broke 70 (72) for the first time this year.
The probability of showers for Sunday in WNY has dropped considerably. The latest run of our Super Microcast markedly dissipates most showers as they approach early Sunday morning, while the previous run was noticeably more pessimistic. The 00z run of the NAM also continues a drying trend which began in the 12z run. The operational GFS remains wetter, with lt showers a probability, and the Canadian GEM shows a low risk for a few showers. The European model and UKMET model keep us completely dry. So, owing to the drying trend in 2 models which had been closer to the GFS, and the continued dry pattern in 2 other models, I see the POP as <20% for Sunday. And when I'm estimating a POP that low in my mind, I'm saying there's only a remote risk. Hopefully, that won't change in Friday's model runs.
I have to reinsert the possibility of a few showers for Sunday, as the NAM is bringing back a little more moisture than yesterday's model runs. The cloud cover will hold temperatures down to the 60s, and chillier air aloft could conceivably produce just enough instability for an isolated Tshwr. The best chance for precip or thunder will be closer to PA. Before all that, however, Buffalo's looking good for about 82 tomorrow, which would be record warmth for the date.
The weather watch forcast team must enjoy the nice things people say especially when the weather is great. Thank you all for your smiles and cheerful forcasts, it always help to be in the know and four for Buffalo sure helps us plan our day Thanks again. I am also glad to have you on the internet so no matter where we roam we still have WIVB with us.
Is there any chance of convection on wednesday as we cool off with a frontal boundary? TWC, shows thunderstorms on wednesday.
Getzville got up to 83.4 degrees this afternoon... Im about half a mile from Williamsville North HS, one of your weather-net sites. What was the high temp at Will North today? Im thinking it was one of the warmer locations today... and tomorrow's only gonna get warmer!
Where are we with our spring, meaning, are we behind in the trees and flowers blooming this year, or are we ahead of schedule? I suppose we could be right on track too.
Thanks!
Williamsville North got up to 77.7 degrees. Your thermometer may be suffering from some radiative contamination from a nearby heat source, since none of the Erie County sites got that warm, particularly with a SW wind.
The Village of Allegany was the hotspot, at 86.
In answer to a couple of questions;
you'd have to check with Cornell Cooperative Extension to be certain, but I believe we are running near or slightly ahead of schedule for blooming plants.
As for Wednesday convection, conditions will be marginal for any tstorms. No signs as of this evening point to any severe weather threat.
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