1st Full Week of May to Offer Springlike Changes
First of all, the bumpy cloud pics to the right are not too often seen here in WNY. They're called Mammatus clouds, associated with the anvil cloud that extends from a decaying cumulonimbus (storm cloud). These were taken around sunset by Mike Schwab of Orchard Park after the storms rolled through Saturday evening. Cool shots, Mike! As we head into the 1st full week of May, a noticeble springlike change will occur with temps rebounding into the 60s for much of the upcoming week after a chilly finish to the weekend. A ridge of high pressure will keep WNY dry with plenty of sunshine to start out on Monday. A clipper developing across the upper midwest will deliver the chance for a few hit or miss showers and isolated t-storms by Tuesday afternoon. More dry time moves in early Wednesday, but daytime heating could cause the atmosphere to destabilize, generating a few pop-up PM showers and t-storms. Local weather will likely turn even more active later Thursday into Friday as a more important spring storm lifting out of the central plains takes aim on the region, bringing widespread showers and t-storms. However, the track of this system is still uncertain, yet bears close watching.
posted by Mary Beth Wrobel at
9:25 PM
35 Comments:
Are there any signs of severe weather impacting us Thursday into Friday? Tis the season for severe T'storms...
Slightly(?) off topic but for those of you who have never seen the planet mercury, tomorrow (Monday) evening presents a great opportunity since you can use the crescent new moon as a guide. Just google "spaceweather" for directions - should be a good show if the weather cooperates.
Adam: Good question, but it's just too early to tell. Storm track may change...
howieh was nice enough to tell folks about the space weather and I just wanted to add that there is a great astronomy map on the wunderground site that allows you to view the stars. Living so close to the metro, light pollution usually impedes star gazing, so in the modern era, I found a way to stargaze online. Just type in your zip code and the map will show you the sky over your head for whatever hour, whichever day that you wish to view.
Here's the URL:
http://www.wunderground.com/sky/index.asp
enjoy the beautiful sunshine!
Don- when I called the weatherline earlier today, you said we will be going back to cooler temps by the wknd? Ughh! Where are the high 60's and 70's lol...
Which day this week looks to be the best for someone who likes T'storms?
Any sign of severe potential yet?
Thanks, Brian
I hope mothers day is nice outside. Many people spend it outdoors at parks etc.
No sign of svr potential this week at this time, unless a Thursday storm system shifts considerably north of current projected track.
Sorry for the bum steer, the conjunction is actually scheduled for Tuesday evening - so Don, what are the odds for clear skies tomorrow eve? Btw, bring on the severe wx (well, not too severe) 'cause I just noticed that my neighbour got rid of a tree that was ruining my view of the northern horizon!
A less than ideal cool pattern will be evolving by late in the week. Wednesday will be nice and warm ahead of some shwrs & tshwrs, courtesy of a downslope breeze. However, the overall pattern will be getting significantly cooler by late week. The NAO will run negative much of the time the next 2 weeks, and the PNA will be positive, favoring troughiness over the Great Lakes and in the east much of that time period. Tonight's GFS suggest Mother's Day will start dry, but Sct Shwrs will arrive in the PM, probably late, with rain picking up at night. The 18z operational GFS is especially chilly for a wet Monday to follow, but the ensemble of GFS runs is not quite so cold.
Bottom line: Days with above normal temps will be few and far between after Wednesday, and the CPC is indicating a higher probability for below normal temps in the 6-10 day period, and a less amplified pattern would likely keep us not-quite-as-cool in the 8-14 day period. Remember, these are smoothed averages, and individual days in those timeframes can vary considerably with the approach of short waves--which can bring temporary warming.
Im not a fan of the cooler tems that will be coming to stick around for a while. This stinks!
howieh,
At worst, skies will be peek-a-boo for the conjunction--Partly Clear.
is there a lake breeze effect to throw into tomorrow's rain and thunderstorms. Where are they most likely?
A little more likely S & SE of Buffalo, along the edge of the lk breeze in the afternoon, as winds veer from srly to SSW. Less likely in the City and to the N & NE. General Shwrs w/a possible Tshwrs will move across the region overnight, however.
Ensemble forecasts for the AO, NAO, and PNA continue to favor below normal temps and above normal precip much of the time during the 6-14 day period. The reality is that even with this unpleasant trend, there will be occasional warmups in advance of most short wave/areas of low pressure, so we're not talking about cool and damp conditions each day.
Nice little popcorn thunder-banger just snuck up on radar.
Looks like they are popping up along the lake erie breeze boundary and are training across the same area. Don over the course of the afternoon should we expect any urban and small stream flooding because of the repeated heavy rainfall?
I saw a good lightening streak followed by a decent crack of thunder with that last strong cell (BO). Blew up on radar just like popcorn...hence the nickname, I presume.
It passed right to the south of me and I caught a decent glimpse of the north edge of it as it passed by.
Hey Don...I'm finding myself explaining POPs to a bunch of folks around here whom are wondering where the rain is...can you maybe include some sort of conveyence in your forecast...again...on that term and what it means. I think some folks are still having a hard time wrapping their heads around that concept, and therefore misunderstand the forecast. Plus I want to be sure how I'm explaining it is correct.
thanks again!
The weather seems to be on the slow side again. We need some severe T'storms or some really nice warm weather like before... not lookin forward to the cool down comin.
No training going on as of 3:10, and amounts haven't been overly heavy due to short residence time for cells.
Sabresfan, I don't use POPs in public forecast because the public doesn't know what they mean. A 30% POP for nrn Erie County means there is a 30% probability of at least .01 rain at any given point in that forecast zone. Many believe it means 30% coverage, and that's absolutely not the case. I use more descriptive subjective language to try to give perspective on risk and coverage.
POPs are a more scientifically correct way to deal with some aspect of this, but in terms of good communication in a sometimes rushed format, I prefer the english language. If I had a paying client who wanted the most precise estimates possible, I'd go with a combination of language and POPs.
Thanks Don, I know that many other sources use POPS and I think the general public gets confused as to what it means.
How do the model runs look for this approaching system? Still too far south or will it nip us a bit more do you think?
In our neck of the woods, only the NWS uses POPs, sabresfan. However, in many other tv markets POPs are used more commonly--often in particularly weather-savvy cites like Wichita and Oklahoma City. Even AccuWx doesn't use them in their bcast forecasts.
If I could figure out a way to express them so their meaning was clear I'd probably go with them as well. POPs are the standard of the academic community in meteorology. But I've even seen a few non-NWS mets show confusion on their definition at my AMS conference, so I'm not ready to go in that direction at this time.
If anyone is looking for something cool to check out go to the news page for oklahoma city (koco.com) they have live feeds you can watch on their website of crews out chasing severe storms and tornados in that area live, very neat to watch!
lol...mark
do you really think an entry like that has a chance of surviving more than an hour? first, it's don paul's blog, and secondly, he does have a reputation as having a bit of a thin skin.
Don I agree with you about the whole POPs thing. I believe the way in which you conduct the forecast is best. Its pretty easy for even the non-weather buff to understand, and not many mets know how to conduct their forecasts like that. After all, you are of the best when it comes to anything weather!
I checked out WGRZ's forecast just for the heck of it... and to my suprise, there is not one drop of rain in all 7 days... everyone else has rain in their extended forecasts. What do you suppose Kevin will say when it rains on a day where he said it wouldnt? Well, thats happened to him countless times before, and he likes to down play it if he even brings it up at all. Knowing him, he will add rain on mothers day the night before.
I honestly never even watch Channel 2 or 7 unless Channel 4's 'cast isn't on for some reason, or I'm too lazy to find/grab the remote and change the channel.
Weather-wise, Andy Parker is okay, but outside of him, I don't think there's a forecaster on either 2 or 7 who would even make Channel 4's team. Channel 4's weather team blows the other channels away.
Mark
Not that I'm complaining,Don,but are all of those Meteorologists at the Weather Channel really certified? A lot of them,both male and female, just seem to be eye candy.
Most on camera people have at least completed the correspondence curriculum offered by Mississippi State University, which is a certificate in broadcast meteorology. It's not the equivalent of the b.s. degree by any means, but it isn't a bad program if the student applies himself. Many of the longtime on camera people, like Mike Seidel, Jim Cantore, & Mark Mancuso are degreed meteorologists.
Yea, I agree! Channel 2's weather is not up to channel 4 standards. My pick for channel 2 is Andy P. He's ok... Channel 7 which we all know is in the pits has a very weak weathercast. None-the-less Aaron M would have to be my pik for channel 7. He's not to bad. In the whole weather cast department, channel 4 is by far the best... then it goes down to channel 2... then 7... then TWC. Speaking of The Weather Channel, did anyone hear what happened to Bob Stokes? He got fired by TWC for sexualy approaching Hillary Andrews of TWC. Theres articles all over the web about it(they go into vast detail about what happened... lets just say its not 'G' rated), just go to yahoo and type the key word 'Bob Stokes fired.'
Yea, I heard about that on CNN a few days ago. Crazy stuff!
"Book by its cover" cliche applies; I always found Stokes to be a bland, if not boring, wxcaster who never made me feel particularly confident that he knew a whole lot about weather.
If the charges are correct, I'm sure Hillary Andrews and her predecessor had wished he was actually as bland as his on-air worked suggested.
haha yea... the TWC said they kept him along bec he got good ratings for them. He is deff strange though! Just reading the article about what he did makes me wonder how he could even act like that in a professional setting and pretty much get away with it. I guess he told Hillary that if she "told on him" that he would mock her and make her look bad when they were live on air.
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2008/0506081weather1.html
Heres the link to the story for those who want to read it. If it doesnt work, just go to yahoo and type 'bob stokes fired' into the search box. Click on the first cite thats labled "Weather Channel in a Sex Storm."
posting links on her is a hard thing to do lol. it never works as planned!
btw, in my last post that was supposed to be *here. not her. lol!
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