Improving Pattern after Saturday
An approaching cold front will set off more numerous Showers & Tshowers mainly later on Saturday and early Saturday evening. Drier and cooler weather will settle in for Sunday, with any light shwrs ending early, clouds thinning, and more sunshine returning for the afternoon. Saturday's tstorms are unlikely to produce severe weather. Since the instability ahead of the cold front will be surface-based, rather than elevated (in which there is little connection with the air near the surface), Lake Erie's chilly waters may weaken approaching convective cells to some extent. Upper level winds will also not be conducive to producing severe weather. The cooling behind the cold front will take Sunday's highs back to the mid 50s, which is not the kind of chill we had earlier this past week.
posted by Don Paul at
7:11 PM
55 Comments:
Don't look for a return to the much above normal temperatures we had (for at least 9 straight April days) anytime soon.
With a cold/negative arctic oscillation and a slightly negative NAO, there will be a tendency toward troughiness over the east, allowing cooler than normal temps to appear more frequently in the Great Lakes over the next 2 weeks. Nothing like the unseasonable chill we had earlier this past week, but there are no signs of a warm ridge returning to the east for a while.
I just noticed that Dr. Greg Forbs on The Weather Channel has put all of WNY in red tomorrow (which means a chance for strong to severe storms)
Thats too bad we wont be back in that warmth we had a week ago... I guess the buds/ leaves on the trees wont really grow much until we get some warmth and sun back. Im glad things are quite a bit greener around these parts though.
Don, just thout I should mention that previous tid bit up above; I am obv going with your forecast though. As much as I enjoy severe T'storms, I just dont see it happening tomorrow. I just thought it was funny that TWC seems to think WNY is under the gun tomorrow, when the data says other-words..
Don, from your data that you currently have, what is the timeline for storms tomorrow? I know you have been saying the main time for storms will be later in the afternoon/ evening... meaning 3, 4 or 6pm?? The morning tomorrow looks to be rain free for the most part, right? Thankss!
Any idea of rainfall amounts tomorrow? Im just wondering because my farm land is somewhat moist, but we could always use a good dose of rain up here in Sanborn. Do you see rainfall amounts above an inch? I would tend to think thats a good chance if we get any heavy thunderstorms.
Thanks, Rich
The NWS says:
SATURDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY. IT WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE CWA
WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE PLUS 12C RANGE AND THE SURFACE WINDS MAINLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH. WE WILL BACK OFF A LITTLE ON CONTINUITY FOR HIGHS
DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. WE WILL BE SITUATED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE UPPER JET WHICH WILL ADD TO THE LIFT. WE WILL GO WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. STAY TUNED.
Here is what the NWS thinks as far as rainfall amounts for tomorrow for those of you who asked. (this is for the Amherst area)
Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then thunderstorms after 11am. High near 73. Southwest wind between 7 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters of an inch and an inch possible.
Andy,
Greg Forbes is a former Penn State prof, so I have high respect for his judgment. However, unless we get some strong insolation/heating Saturday, I just don't see the other parameters for svr wx coming together. Doesn't mean it's impossible--just unlikely. The SPC has us at a 5% probability, which is negligible. Isolated strong cells are possible, however, but definitely not worth mentioning on the air without a stronger signal from nature and the models.
Adam,
I think the bulk of the activity will be in the PM, but I haven't said rainfree in the AM. There may be a few shwrs around in spots at that time.
Jeffr,
There should be enough sun next week for plenty leaf growth.
Average rainfall will be under an inch tomorrow, but individual convective cells are capable of producing locally heavier amounts.
Interesting sidelight:
Our emotionally needy poster keeps turning up, but he seems to be to dim to realize he's being quickly filtered out, as was the case last week. I can't imagine what psychological thrill he gets from being zapped, but that's not about to change.
We all are with you on that one Don!! I was thinking the same thing.
do u guys think "mark" could also be ayuud? just seems weird, that some of the traits ayuud had such as reposting other sites on here and then comments by mark appear at the same time...are maybe a bit to much the same? just a thought..back to weather!!
This is what the NWS is saying as far as rainfall amts for those of you that wanted to know:(for the Amherst area)
Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then thunderstorms after 11am. High near 73. Southwest wind between 7 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters of an inch and an inch possible.
No, I don't think it's Ayuud. Let's move on to other things, folks. I'd rather we don't fall back into the pattern of giving this character the attention he desperately craves.
Maybe... but idk for sure. I was thinking that too, but it really seems unlikely.
BTW, Ayuud could not talk/ spell to save his life, and when he would post from other cites, he wouldnt give credit... so thats the #1 sign that this "Mark guy" is not Ayuud. Mark doesnt seem to have spelling issues, although his issues in general look to be worse than that of bad spelling lol!
...That a good idea! Its the best thing you can really do...
Its 10:00pm. Time to turn channel 16 on for the 10pm news... for the latest weather update!
Don--
Do you think a squall line will develope and impact all of WNY tomorrow late afternoon? OR do you think it will be more of a "popcorn" thunderstorm event in general?
Just saw that TWC took Dr. Greg Forbs svr wx outlook for tomorrow to heart because the local on the 8's has changed its forecast for tomorrow:
Rain showers in the morning with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe. High 74F. Winds SSW 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80% Rainfall may reach one inch.
I will say this...this blog is definitely both informative and entertaining!
Jim,
A squall line will develop, but limiting factors will be cloud cover and chilly lake water. If this were elevated convection (in which the instability is aloft, often ahead of a warm front, with no direct tie-in to sfc air for heating), the lake would have little if any effect. But because tom'w instability will be surface based, the 42 degree lake surface will likely have some negative impact on buoyancy in the afternoon. These storms will have a better chance of reintensifying further to the east, away from the Lk Erie chill.
Again, if we get unexpectedly abundant sunshine/insolation, that could counterract the lake's effect. That may be what Dr. Forbes in factoring in, along with a half decent mid level jet max, under which we'll be in a favorable position for additional buoyancy.
So, no, I'm not saying absolutely no svr tom'w--I'm just saying it's rather unlikely.
00z NAM is coming in right now, so I'll be looking that over for buoyancy as well. The latest run of our Super Microcast doesn't look favorable for svr, either, but there could still be heavy convection.
I do enjoy this blog and some of the extra, behind-the-scenes details that go into the forecast the weather folks give us on TV.
Keep up the good work!
Its pretty foggy here in Amherst right now!
channel2watcher, eh?
Well, thanks for checking us out, too!
channel2watcher:
If you go for the best around, Im thinking your name might soon change to- channel4watcher lol.
is boundary flow stil south today? wouldn't that put the shadow over the peninsula and not over western new york. Or at least the convection as you said would fire east of the lake. How far east?
DON....
hi
ok, folks. Dr. Forbes is a brilliant met with a flair for convective mesoscale forecasting...however...every national forecaster seems to forget about or minimize the lake's shadow. Quite often the Wx channel calls for storms that are broken up by the lake. I really enjoy a good thunderboomer, so they have teased me enough times over the years to remember to put into account, the lake shadow.
Thats why we have Don and crew...they understand our very unique and specific climate and are really the only ones qualified to give us regional forecasts. (NWS you're included in that, too!)
now ayuud shows up...hhmmmm something is fishy here and its not lake erie
is that rain over central lake erie going to stabalize everything before it gets here? or will storms pop up any way?
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS AND SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THEM MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS,
TORRENTIAL RAINS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. STAY TUNED.
The TWC called out Buffalo as one of the locations that has the best chance to see svr T'storms later this afternoon.
weather novices that may not know about this:
NOAA SPC Mesoscale Analysis page:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/
mesoanalysis/frames.php?sector=1
you can study the menus on the left to see all of the factors that will determine if we get svr weather. it great to observe at the time of an approaching storm and offers more info than radar can.
We'll probably see some late aft/early eve tstorms, but rain cooled air has stabilized things around here, and little if any clearing is seen around here.
Svr remains, as said yesterday, quite unlikely.
notice somewhat of a squall forming by ashtabula ohio just recently. the line is more quite quickly northeast.
I saw that squall line thats approaching...looks like cloud tops arent taller than 11,000 ft and theres no chance of hail. Its moving pretty fast. The lake doesnt seem to be impeding it, though.
thanx sabresfan that mesoscale page is neat. I wish I understood all that I was looking at though.
we might get something good here, looks almost like a mini bow echo by erie moving quickly northeast. then there's more storms west of cleveland.
It's coming in right on Q! It's getting very windy and the rain has begun down here in Chautauqua County. Heavy blue-black clouds are massing on my hilltop. Thie wind is brisk and the tall spruces are swaying. No thunder or lighting yet.
Spring Thunder
Listen, The wind is still,
And far away in the night --
See! The uplands fill
With a running light.
Open the doors. It is warm;
And where the sky was clear--
Look! The head of a storm
That marches here!
Come under the trembling hedge--
Fast, although you fumble...
There! Did you hear the edge
of winter crumble
Mark van Doren
(1894 - 1972)
Saw a vortex signature over lake ontario in cell N1 on the Nexrad. it appeared and disappeared quickly. Its still in the current loop.
looks like V2 cell is going to come straight up the 90. will that flat straight-away of pavement help to intensify the cell, I wonder? Seems to form a wind tunnel there other times...
and *poof* goes V2.
another vortex sig w/ R5 cell over S. Erie County appeared and is gone.
Pretty amazing to see this kind of development absent much heating. I stand corrected. Are you saying vortex signature (TVS) or mesolow?
i'm not a proffessional spotter but we had some wciked winds here in boston, if you look at the radar I live where the yellow core passed over, winds for about 2 minutes were 55-60 mph. the lights flickered, and it got pretty loud. also i noticed the bow echo with those storms.
Wish I had my camera with me in the truck today. Just got back from a trip out the res and I ran into the inital squall line right before getting off the thruway in silver creek (like 5:20ish), that was one mean looking wall cloud (well I'm not qualified to say it was or wasn't but sure looked like one to me). The sky went from just gloomy to pitch black past Angola and right before the silver creek exit you could see the cloud kinda curving and bowing pretty close to not to high off the ground, was amazing to see. Weather never really got super bad, quick heavy downpour, some strong wind gusts, but that was about it.
Wonder how the next batch comming off the lake will turn out?
hmm now that I am checking it out, I maybe should have said "shelf cloud", didn't realise the two were different, sorry about that.
TVS don, not Meso's. They popped up and went poof right away.
are those storms near cleveland going to pose a severe threat?
What a magnificent rainbow there was from my vantage point in s. Chkt.
Brilliant! Bravo!!!!
Here are a few storm reports from earlier this evening: Some structural damage in Fredonia, Dunkirk. Wires, Power Poles down in Lewiston, Colden. Trees down in Ransomville, Elma and Royalton Center. Wind damage in Lakeview. A few isolated thunderstorms will cross the area overnight (not as intense though), otherwise, look for scattered showers and patchy fog.
So when all was said and done, we did in fact (in parts of WNY) get a few severe T'storms when we pretty much thought we wouldnt. I think there was a 10% chance that we would see svr t'storms, and as Sat went on, that percent grew. I think this was the first official severe t'storm warning of the season. Maybe more to come this Wednesday??
A double rainbow could be seen all across WNY earlier tonight. Quite a sight to see!
Great soaking rain here that we need badly. Youcan almost see the grass spring up. Nothing too heavy came on since I posted it tamed down. Most of the fields around me are all plowed so this is wonderful for the farmers.
Missed the rainbow, dagnabbit. My daughter wanted to know why everything outside had that yellowish glow after the front passed through. Let me tell you, it's tough explaining refraction and the visible light spectrum to a three year old. :)
I watched the radar loop on the 10pm broadcast Saturday, and it looked like there were a series of squall lines...the last one appeared to break up this side of Long Point...I thought frontal passages usually brought one squall line, while this one had three. Why was that?
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