Not a bad Work Week; as for the Wknd....
After a gray, damp start Monday morning, much of this work week will be more than tolerable. A dry and mild Tuesday, a warm Wednesday, but an approaching cool front will bring some showers in during the afternoon, mainly late...and into Wednesday night. Temps will cool a bit for Thur-Fri, but it should be mainly dry. During the weekend, however, a vigorous short wave will approach on a Breezy Saturday, and bring an increasing threat of Sct Shwrs later in the day. An upper level trough will be cared out in the atmosphere over the Great Lakes, allowing cooler than average temps to take hold again. As the time of this posting, however, it doesn't look especially wet for Sunday, either. Sct Shwrs may increase later in the day and at night.
posted by Don Paul at
1:38 PM
50 Comments:
So it seems that yard work might get accomplished this weekend but only in the early hours of the day?
Looks like this week wont be to bad weather wise. I would rather have temps that are a little warmer, but Ill take what I can get. Are we talkin' temps in the low to mid 50's for this coming wknd, or low 60's?
...Just as long as the Memorial Day weekend is nice. (Better than what we have now)
sherri, that's a reasonable early projection. A cold upper low will be carving a trough in the upper atmosphere over the Great Lakes. Generally in such a pattern, the greatest instability develops after there's been some daytime heating, so showers tend to multiply in the afternoon into the early evening.
So, an unsettled weekend, getting progressively cooler, but no all days rains currently indicated.
thanks, Don...
Too much news today!
hope they can squeeze in the weather tonight!
LOL!
18z operational GFS has Saturday as more quickly wet than the 12z run. The timing of fast-moving shortwaves within a digging longer wave will change, more likely than not. This is common with nearly all pattern changes. The models can more realily grab on to the big picture, but the smaller features zipping along within that pattern are much harder to pinpoint.
There have been many weeks in which our extended outlook into the following weekend remains stable with only minor changes. I don't think that's going to be the case this week. What we know at this point is this: A cooler pattern will be evolving as the broad troffiness we advertised for this coming weekend last week is still going to evolve. That kind of pattern favors some instability showers from time to time. But that activity is tied to those fast-moving short waves within the long wave, and models have difficulty timing those for time from run to run. Flexible plans are again the bywords for weekend plans this coming weekend, as advertised a couple of threads ago earlier last week.
I'm camping this weekend, so I'm sure that with my luck, we're getting rained on. guess I'm packing some extra rain gear and dry socks! blasted!!! Any severe weather threat?
No severe weather threat, and there will be some rainfree periods--possibly some extensive ones.
Looks like the bloom is coming off the Friday rose, as well...both the NAM and GFS now project a low pressure system south of us to come close enough to bring Showers in WNY during Friday, along with a cool NE sfc breeze. The weekend outlook continues to look quite unsettled and chilly, with quite a breeze to boot--along w/occ'l and sct showers.
Well, all we seem to talk about is the cooler and wet conditions on the way. Is there any warm-up in sight? We have to be in the 70's and 80's soon... its May!
In the 10 day long range forecast, there are now signs of a warm up around the 21st.
Well Jim...May is simply not going to be a particularly warm month, as opposed to April. There will be occasional warmups which don't last that long (such as tomorrow's 70s), but the overall pattern doesn't favor a fundamental pattern change to a western trough/eastern ridge for the current-14 day range. There is the possibility that something may change after the Memorial Day wknd, but I say that only because we have no models which extend out to that range.
Adam, I don't see a pattern change around the 21st showing up in the operational GFS, which is the only global model which goes out that far in time.
Is any of the rain that is being forecasted going to be soaking, or just showers?
No sign right now of steady soaking rain either day, but some of these showers can produce brief periods of soaking rain, possibly mixed with hail or small graupel, due to the unseasonably cold air aloft.
Evening Don
I am going to be leaving the Barrie-area for the family retreat on Lake Huron, a little place called Kincardine, on Friday and holding there to Monday.
Hope to head out onto the lake for some fishing, but with the colder temps and showers, I am wondering if this low will also cause gusty winds. Might be of interest to anyone also planning a journey on Lakes Erie or Ontario.
tx.
Definitely looks windy, mainly WNW, with some nasty wave heights likely. Not a good wknd for boating, barrie1, unless there's an unlikely drastic change in the guidance.
While timing clusters of showers this wknd will be a challenge, the biggest uncertainty in the forecast as of this posting is Friday's possible rain. Both the 12z/18z NAM and the 12z/18z GFS have rain from a low pressure system to our SW getting up into WNY, especially the srn tier. However, the UKMET and Canadian GEM keep us dry with that system, along with our FutureWatch model--with the system going by well to our south toward VA. At least our newest run of Super Microcast now brings rain up into the srn tier by 7am Friday. So I have to lean toward more numerous shwrs in the srn tier, and fewer on the Niag Frontier.
After that, the pattern grows increasingly disappointing, with the wknd still looking as previously posted. There is a hint that a short wave will bring more numerous showers for a portion Saturday than on Sunday, but both days will feature a nasty breeze and chilly temps. The patter relaxes a bit on Monday (only a bit), but the 18z GFS--the only model going out so far in time--suggests another vigorous short wave will reinforce the cold trough from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes by Tue-Wed. 7-8 days out, of course, is risky business.
Feel free to mutter "yecchh!"
Sorry for typos on previous post--pressed for time.
ahh man! crapy weather!
I hate the 50's!
good lettuce growing weather. I just planted mine so I'm kind of glad that it can get started out with wet, cool weather. I was hoping to plant the rest of the veggies this wknd but it looks as if I should hold off one more week, eh?
In the meantime, lets not forget the GORGEOUS day at hand today...I'm going to go get me some sun! A great day for a picnic at the park! enjoy! (plant some lettuce...you'll feel better about this weekend's weather!)
lets hope that with all of the solar activity (sun spots/electromagnetic interference) that the models are running out of whack and they are all wrong!
fingers crossed...I'm getting married this Saturday. I would like some nice weather so that I know the gods approve.
uh...what happened to the sun? I see a blob on the radar that appears to be lake-enhanced precip?
Didnt expect that. Hope it doesnt stay this way!
D'oh! I jinxed us all! sorry!
No lake enhancement possible with warm temps at the sfc and aloft, sabresfan. Main body of shwrs should hold off to mid/late afternoon.
At least Friday's forecast has improved. Just about the entire suite of global and regional models now have the area of low pressure as weaker and further south again, as per Monday's runs. That means no or little rain getting north of the srn tier, and even there, the rainfall will be relatively brief and light.
No major change in the wknd fcast at this point. There will be some rainfree periods, and occ'l spotty showers. Both days will be breezy, but Sunday will be the chilliest of the 2 cool days. No washout, but definitely no winner. Timing of these short waves moving through the amplifying long wave trough remains difficult if not impossible, which equates to timing the occ'l showers--can't do it, as models keep flip-flopping on that timing.
As for the longer term, only the GFS goes out in time as far as the Memorial Day weekend. Remembering its limitations of lower resolution and a certain amount of chaos, it's still disturbing to see no trend of longterm warming between now and then.
The only miniscule signs of hope are that the AO/Arctic Oscillation and NAO/North Atlantic Oscillation, both in a negative/cold phase, become somewhat less negative further out in time. And the PNA in a cold-for-the-east positive phase goes less positive in the ensembles. That said, there is no flip flop to a warm phase for any of these indices.
Hey Don,
Thank you very much for this blog and your interaction.
Is there anything in the longer-range models/data you look at that indicate when we might start to get more consistent warmer weather?
Living in Buffalo and suffering through these winters, you just get so impatient wanting the warm weather to get here!
Well, my dixie wrecked (interesting name!), I don't regularly get to see anything beyond the range of the GFS global model. Of the operational computer models in use today, the GFS is, by far, the longest range model--going out 384 hours or 16 days. Almost needless to say, its reliability that far out is sketchy, useful only when a strong pattern is in place or evolving.
The recent runs (the GFS, like many US models, runs every 6 hours) show no sign of a real turnaround to a warmer pattern in the Great Lakes. There will be occasional brief warmups, but the tendency will continue to be for temperatures to run below normal more days than not during the next 2 weeks.
The Climate Prediction Center is finding a weak but real statistical signal for June to tend to be warmer than normal for our neck of the woods, and that signal seems to strengthen in July. So, that's not just to say it will be warmer in June and July (ANYbody could guess that), but that June and July will have a modest tendency to run warmer than they typically do. However, summer outlooks are notoriously less reliable most years, because summer patterns are of a much weaker amplitude than cold weather patterns.
I'm a boater...that's why the name.
Thank you for the response. I'm amazed how you find the time to do all those newscasts (5 of them!)...and respond in this blog as much as you do...and on top of that, oh yeah, actually do your job and analyze the models and data, which I'm sure is the most time-consuming of all.
All I ask is as soon as you see anything reliable in any model - I don't care if it's a Victoria's Secret model - that indicates warming coming our way...please let us know! :-) We're desperate!
(except for the lettuce growers)
Sometimes I scoot over to the blog just to clear my eyes and brain from staring at models on the monitor--it's just a click of the mouse. Other times, the blog has to wait, when the nearterm weather gets more complex.
Don, you're a troublemaker! Did you have to inform everyone (including the Love Goddess!) that Sonny Eliot is still doing weathercasts at the ripe old age of eighty-eight?? When she told me that Eliot is still working at 88 I said he's doing weather, that's not work!!
Just kidding of course and for all the doubters that follow this blog, my son and I went birding just about every weekend this past winter, and because he works it was important for him to know, as early as possible, which of the two weekend days would be better (i.e. as regards precip, sun and winds). I look at lots of wx data but Don's early outlook (issued on the previous Monday or Tuesday) was always the final word, and guess what?? even I was surprised at how well things worked out almost ALL of the time, so thanks again to the entire team for a job well done!
Now, if we (I was one of them!) could only convince the doubters that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to predict exactly where and when those summer air mass thunderstorms will pop up we'd have it made...but that's another story!
I would imagine a weather forecaster at the ripe age of 88 might have an advantage...they can feel the weather coming in their bones. (especially during those summer pop-up storms)
As for the cruddy outlook, well maybe Mark can tell us something better with his magic 8 ball... Afterall with a forecast like that for the end of May...fantasy land must have MUCH better weather!
LOL!
(although...my lettuce is happy)
I will try to remember that soon enough it will be too hot to stay outside for a long time....
Thanks again, Don...you're the tops!
Thanks, howieh and sabresfan.
By the way, I could tell you things about Sonny Eliot's off air humor, but this is a family blog.
Sonny has been on the air in Detroit since 1946, making him the longest running weathercaster in the history of broadcasting. I knew he was still with us, but 2 weeks ago I learned he was still doing 2 weathercasts per day on WWJ-AM during afternoon drive. That just blew me away, so I sent him a silly email, and he called me last week. Our conversation--mostly from his end--was as off color as it was in the early 80s when we worked together at WJBK-TV (then CBS) in Detroit. When I told him the fact he was still working--and still sounding amazingly like he did when he was in his 60s--that it gave a guy like me hope, his response was,
"Oh, YOU'LL never last this long...." As funny and energized as ever!
Great stuff Don; I just googled Sonny Eliot and there's a 4+ minute interview with Sonny. Just one question (since I didn't watch the complete video), did he ever get too raunchy on the air; hard to believe that it never happened in over 50 years of broadcasting!
Btw, I had a lot of those off color calls when I was working. Friends or relatives would call for a forecast and a few days later I would get one of those off color calls!! Some people have no sense of humor, especially the baseball fan who never bought the comparison to great major league hitters who are considered successful when they get 3 out of ten right!
Actually Eliot reminds me bit of two legendary Canadian weather guys, Percy Saltzman and Rube Hornstein. I only found out about Percy when he started a blog in his late eighties (the good stuff was removed and out of respect for the family my hardcopy will remain in storeage!)...and then there was Rube, good guy with a bit of an ego told this one on himself on air; travelling by car with the family thru the deep south they were pulled over by a state trooper. Produced his drivers licence and when the cop told him, Mr. Hornstein, you are about to receive a citation from the state of Georgia he thought to himself, wow, they know me DOWN here!! Needless to say he paid the speeding ticket and left kind of red faced. Good story - and he told it better than I did!
howieh,
I was in Detroit (as the #2 wxguy) for 5 years, and Sonny never went too far on the air in that time period. I doubt he's made many--if any--mistakes along those lines, because he's kept most of his on-air stuff squeaky clean.
I listened to one of his afternoon wxcasts on the WWJ website, and he's verbally at about the same level of energy as ever. When I told him last week I'd checked out one of his segments (CBS owns WWJ) on the website, he didn't realize they'd put him up there. He then uttered an expletive about CBS, but I can't possibly repeat it here.
As I mentioned last night, Sonny was a B-24 pilot in WWII and spent 16 months as a POW in Germany.
Unique is a heavily overused word in our language, but not in Sonny's case....he's a one of a kind character. He's been in AFTRA (our union) for 61 years!
For those looking for a glimmer of hope about our May pattern, the 12z GFS has one for you. In a sudden flip-flop, the GFS is now indicating a fairly dramatic warmup for midweek next week, with modest cooling and some unsettled conditions possible by the holiday weekend.
Sudden changes in a model are ALWAYS to be viewed with strong suspicion, so I'll want to see a few more runs before I hook into this pattern change. So if this sudden change holds, Adam, your Monday guess might turn out to be right after all about the 21st.
Great news on the "flip-flop". I sure hope it happens! Beautiful red sky tonight at sunset, should have been down on Lake Ontario watching it!
The newest (18z) GFS run now shows a little warming on Wednesday with more significant warming on Thursday, the 22nd. After that, there is a tendency for the warmup to be relatively brief, with some cooling and unsettled conditions by Fri into the holiday weekend. BUT by the time we get into that time period, the GFS resolution (after 180 hours)is cut in half, and the model becomes much less reliable for timing, intensity, and placement of short waves/closed low pressure systems.
So you can expect changes in the holiday weekend outlook. In fact, I just made an attempt at humor on our 10pm news by saying I'd "rather not speculate on the Memorial Day weekend." I don't want to depress people any more than necessary....
Yea... I noticed that. I hope the long holiday wknd is nice though! Its one of those long weekends where you tend to find yourself outdoors a lot... so I really hope it ends up being somewhat nice.
If the long Memorial Day weekend ends up being anything like what we're expecting for this weekend, that would not be good. So lets hope some things change between now and the holiday weekend.
Take my word for it...some things will change, and that's why I didn't mention the holiday wknd at 11. Maybe tomorrow, at least briefly.
Don, when do you figure the tempertures will get to the upper 70's abd stay there?
Wx man (wunderground met) says this about memorial day weekend, the Euro model and the possibility of severe weather on Memorial Day wknd:
"I would like to note that if the ECMWF model verifies we could see one of the biggest severe weather outbreaks of the season Memorial Day weekend. The latest ECMWF model run takes a sub 980mb low pressure out of Colorado into the Northern Plains with a wide open Gulf of Mexico. The trough is also deep enough to bring a large chunk of dry air out of the desert regions of the SW. Lots of ingredients would be coming together."
check him out at this url:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/sullivanweather/archive.html?tstamp=200805
Now I see why Don is discouraged to mention anything about the holiday weekend.
Wow! Don, I woke up this morning and noticed that TWC is forecasting a high of 79 for us next Thur. That is quite a warm up! Im looking forward to it!
BTW: I know its early... but is Memorial wknd looking like it will be cold, or might we see rain/ svr T'storms?
None of us in Southern Ontario are too thrilled with the showers, and cool temps on tap Saturday and Sunday for our Victoria Day long weekend. We also have the Monday off.
I asked a few days ago Don about wind velocity on Saturday and you suggested it would not be the smartest move to head onto Lake Huron, let alone Erie and Ontario, for a boat ride.
Today, Environment Canada has wind gusts between 60 and 70 k./35 to 42 Saturday evening with risk of pm thunderstorms.
You were bang on about the winds days ago.
We'll be watching the waves crash over the pier this weekend. Don't like the showers, but winds, waves and maybe some thunder could make things interesting.
Enjoy your weekend everyone.
Adam, I'm still in the middle of doing my analysis, and can't comment on next weekend until the current run of the GFS finishes. As for Thursday, what's called the Hydrometeorological Prediction Ctr of the NWS HQ is forecasting a high of 62 as of this morning. It does look like some warming will develop later next week but, as you can see, minds are not meeting yet as to how much.
As for wx man friend's relaying of another met's outlook, there are hints--but only hints--of a deep low over the high plains, which would put the svr wx risk a long way from here. Trying to forecast svr wx 7-9 days in advance isn't like shooting fish in a barrel....
12z GFS shows some warming for Thursday, but stronger warming holds off until Fri-Sun next week. It also shows unsettled conditions. Bottom line: the GFS has been all over the place beyond day 4 for quite a few runs in a row, meaning next weekend can't possibly be called for precip at this point. I have modest confidence some significant warming is headed our way for a few days late next week, but the overall confidence for a holiday weekend forecast as of today remains low, low, low--very much unlike the high confidence we had at the beginning of the week for this weekend.
the spc has us at a 5% risk of severe weather tomorrow. Could this be like two saturdays ago where we had that low topped squall line whip through?
Looks like the future watch has a stronger line of storms crossing through the Niagara Frontier later at night Saturday (11pm-ish)... when viewing the future watch, that one area of storms mentioned above looked to be the strongest. So from the looks of it, places such as Buffalo, Amherst/Clarence, the Falls, Lockport have the best chance of seeing svr weather.
That's our Super Microcast model, not the FutureWatch model you're referring to (2 completely different models). The model is not project severe tstorms--it's showing tstorms.
The severe wx threat isn't non-existent, but it's low (5% by SPC estimation). The main threat would be jetstream winds mixing down to the surface with the cold front coming thru in the afternoon.
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