Pattern Not Encouraging for Some Time to Come
Great astronomy info in Mike's thread below, by the way.
The overall pattern for much of next week and the following week shows extensive troughiness for much of the central and eastern US, which will favor above normal precipitation and below normal temps. As previously mentioned, that doesn't mean every single day will be Wet & Chilly (oftentimes, approaching short waves bring brief warmups before they pass), but it does mean we're done with the 70s for the foreseeable future. Mother's Day precip as of this posting looks to be holding off until late in the day. This is the time of the year where "blocky" patterns are climatologically favored. If you're in the bad portion of the block, you're out of luck. Normally I wouldn't mention what the GFS shows too far out in mid-Spring. However, it's consistently showing upper level low pressure which would keep us Chilly and possibly Wet NEXT weekend. Most of this one, fortunately, will be dry--until Sunday night, when things go way down hill.
The overall pattern for much of next week and the following week shows extensive troughiness for much of the central and eastern US, which will favor above normal precipitation and below normal temps. As previously mentioned, that doesn't mean every single day will be Wet & Chilly (oftentimes, approaching short waves bring brief warmups before they pass), but it does mean we're done with the 70s for the foreseeable future. Mother's Day precip as of this posting looks to be holding off until late in the day. This is the time of the year where "blocky" patterns are climatologically favored. If you're in the bad portion of the block, you're out of luck. Normally I wouldn't mention what the GFS shows too far out in mid-Spring. However, it's consistently showing upper level low pressure which would keep us Chilly and possibly Wet NEXT weekend. Most of this one, fortunately, will be dry--until Sunday night, when things go way down hill.
posted by Don Paul at
1:39 PM
26 Comments:
Don, at the end of your post you said "Most of this one, fortunately, will be dry--until Sunday night, when things go way down hill."
Can you explain that? Im not sure what your trying to say or describe. Do you mean this Sunday, or next Sunday? And what is going way down hill? Please dont tell me its going to snow lol, that wouldnt be good! Also, do you think we're now in the safe zone for putting flowers out? Thanks!
Ok, I can make out that you mean this Sunday but I didnt know it was gonna go way down hill. The rain is going to hold off til later in the day Sunday, then is it gonna rain a whole lot Sunday night or something? The temps this week wernt all that good ether, and do you mean its gonna go way down hill because of the cool temps next week compared to the temps we had this week?
Rain moves in for Sunday night, with numerous showers on Monday. Monday's highs will be anywhere from 49-52. Another slow moving low will affect us by Thur into next weekend.
Okay?
Sorry Don, I was just wondering. That comment and your "okay" seems somewhat of an, "okay you idiot you get it?" Haha, sorry!
Thanks for your response Don, even though it seems a little angary. Sorry! I understand now.
looking at that radar loop, we're going to get quite wet before Sunday.
Boy, adam and rich! Can you ever read too much into "Okay?" All that meant was, does that answer your question?
Anonymous, if we just forecast by radar loops, I could work a 2 hour day....
It's only one GFS operational model run (there are 4 per day), but the 18z run makes the extended outlook look a tad less grim next week. It allows more drying and partial clearing on Tuesday, and some noticeable warming for Wed-Thur, ahead of the next slow-moving area of low pressure.
In addition, this run has less impressive rainfall for Sunday night and especially Monday than previous runs. We'll see what the next few model runs bring....
Don, do you think its ok to put flowers in, or buy hanging flower baskets... meaning, are we out of frost and freeze danger? I want to get my mother a hanging basket for mothers day, but Im not going to spend 25-30 dollars on one if it has a good chance of getting killed by cold weather. What do you think? (if it helps your decision at all, I live in Amherst, not in the valleys south of Buffalo)
Thanks, Brian
Brian,
Hanging baskets should be fine because they can be moved. If they're under the eaves, they'll also be kept warmer from the bit of radiant warmth coming off the house.
As for frost, with the cooler than average temps expected in the 6-14 day period, there is a SLIGHT risk of frost in some parts of WNY, depending on nightime cloud cover, but frost near the lakes and metro area has become very unlikely.
Thankks Don! -Brian
Hello Ch 4 weather
I was quite suprised this morning when I saw the long range forecast from Environment Canada for Monday.
Around here, we went from periods of rain and a high of 11 cel/52 F to just cloudy/maybe some showers and up to 16C/61 F.
I noticed on Mike's replayed report on the web this a-m, the high for Monday in WNY has creeped up a BIT.
I note don before you signed out last night you indicated rainfall amounts may not be as impressive.
Just wondering..what events took place to impact the system and even cause a slight warm up, albeit still cool, in the temperature department.
TX
Just some weakening in the upper level low and its surface reflection. I'm just beginning to look at this morning's guidance to see if that trend is continuing, barrie1.
Improving trend continues; most of Sunday will be dry, with shwrs just reaching Chau Co later in the day. Showers Sunday night will be steadier in the srn tier, and thin out on a cool Monday. The main coastal low will be moving more quickly than earlier models during the week indicated, so we should get into some clearing for Tue, and moderating temps most noticeable by Wed-Thur. In general, the amplitude of this pattern looks weaker; Not as cool, not so wet.
Thanks for the updates Don. It's sounding better all the time.
Thanks for the earlier response to my question.
Fingers crossed for next weekend.
It is the long Victoria Day weekend(Monday off). We in Ontario call it the unofficial launch to summer.
I can recall Victoria Day weekends at the cottage sweating it out at the lake or wearing a heavy jacket and chilling on the dock.
I know it is early, but here's to some sunshine for us---it doesn't have to be hot!
Some may think it's "old technology", but our Channel 4 Weatherline (844-4444) continues to amaze with its awesome popularity. Just in the month of April, the 25 lines took in 925,000 calls, and we've had about 3,400,000 calls for the year so far--after a record year last year. Weatherline has been a part of WeatherWatch 4 since 1988, and each year the call count continues to go up! Thanks so much to all who continue to make it one of the top weather forecast sources in the region....
The CPC/Climate Prediction Ctr still has the Great Lakes, much of the east, and part of the central US at below average temps in the 6-14 day outlook, with a tendency toward wetter than normal conditions. However, we will still catch a decent break on Tue-Wed, with temps moving back to or slightly above normal. Sct Shwrs will return next Thursday-Fri, but with no sharp cooling indicated.
Again, Sunday night rain looks lt-moderate, with heaviest amts south of Buffalo, and only diminishing lighter shwrs on a Cool Monday--not as wet or as cold as indicated earlier this week.
Don...do you know why Lake Ontario is so high? I am not sure if I have ever seen the lake level this high. Any idea's?
I honestly have no idea why lake ontario is so high.
Im thinking mayey since there was soo much ice on lake erie and when it melted it migth have caused a rapid rise in lake erie and traveled down the niagara river into lake ontario.but i have no idea just a guess.
Hi Don:
Just noticed as of 3:45PM Saturday the Weatherbug is showing highs Monday only in the upper 40's and then a big rebound with temps on Wednesday in the 70's. How does this stack up with your data?
By Wednesday high temps now look as though they will be in the low 70's... but only for a day.
Anonymous: That's indeed out it looks right now. Wednesday may be the warmest day during the upcoming week.
I was in Oak Orchard harbor saturday night and noticed the docks are almost under water from the high lake level. Cant they control that level at the St. Lawrence?
Where did all this wind come from in the Souther Tier? I don't remember that being part of the forecast this morning. We have gusts up to 25 MPH and sustained winds close to that. We have leaves down all over the place as this wind is just stripping. This has not been a nice day weatherwise. It has been a solid overcast, very windy and temps only in the 50's in Cattaraugus County.
Happy Mother's Day to all...
my thoughts on 7-10 forecasts:
Accepting the nature of forecasting is accepting the fact that the forecast changes. Its a relentless part of nature to be always in a state of constant change. Those that can adapt are able to succeed and thrive. As goes forecasting. Yes a 7-10 day model run is usually worth a can of beans in terms of actually predicting the weather for the next week, but when you hear(read) the forcast, remember that it will probably change. Then try to understand how it could change and why. This is a science that is perfecting itself on a constant basis. There are many unknowns and perfect forecasting just doesnt exsist. Its Don and co. that are sucessful and thrive because they aptly keep evolving and adapting their forecasting. Its a good reason to frequently check in to see if theres been changes. For me, its a fun rollercoaster ride and I am always in awe of nature and her unpredictability.
So most of all, Happy Mother's day to Mother Nature, herself!
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