Friday, January 25, 2008

Weekend Update

A weak trough of low pressure will begin to develop Sct Lt Snow Shwrs during Saturday, with only spotty minor accumulations, mainly in the hills. Those snow shwrs will continue overnight, with some slick spots developing, but no heavy duty shoveling. Lingering flurries should wind down early Sunday, and clouds may finally thin later in the day. Ski conditions will be Spectacular! Moreover, winds will be lighter on Saturday and close to calm at times Saturday night & Sunday, making outdoor activities much more comfortable. Temps will make a move toward 40 on a Partly Sunny Monday. On Tuesday, in advance of a cold front, temps should reach the low 40s and winds will pick up. Sct Shwrs will become more numerous toward evening. A fast moving intense storm will zip across the nrn Great Lakes Tuesday night, and in the wake of that cold front there may be a burst of snow for awhile, along with Strong or High Winds. (A caveat: The Canadian and European models are not as strong with this storm as is the GFS.) While accumulations will not be especially heavy (the storm will be largely cut off from Gulf moisture), more significant lake snow will develop by late night across Ski Co on a cold Wly flow, and continue into Wed. There may also be lake snow N & NE of Buffalo, closer to Lk Ontario, with lighter snow shwrs Wed in the metro area. Winds will begin to diminish later in the day. But Wednesday, due to the wind chill and temps only in the low/mid 20s, will feel like midwinter again.

Thursday will be more tranquil. On Friday, we'll have to watch for a storm system coming out of the srn plains. The last 2 runs of the GFS take this system further to the east of us than earlier runs, and keep this southern jetstream feature from phasing with the nrn branch of the jetstream until it's out to sea. If that verifies, it wouldn't be a major storm for us. If the srn branch and nrn branch of the jet did phase, the storm would deepen sooner, and bring us rain or snow with greater amounts. Of course, it's still quite far out.

PLEASE REMEMBER TO CONTRIBUTE YOUR EXHIBIT IDEAS TO THE BWEC THREAD BELOW.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Limited Lake Snow Potential, Coming Pattern Change

Late Tuesday evening, some limited lake snow is beginning to organize over parts of wrn Michigan, as the boundary layer is picking up a little more humidity to work with. This will bring similar conditions to srn Erie & Wyoming Cos in the predawn hours, with a possible drift toward the Buffalo Stowns for a few hours by/during early morning. Amounts will not be overly impressive--up to 3" by morning on the hills, and another 2-4" possible in spots on Wednesday. Even if the band does jog a little north, its residence time over the Buffalo Stowns will not be lengthy enough to produce more than a few inches before the band settles back further south again--and that jog north is uncertain. As a trough with the colder airmass behind it sinks into WNY Wednesday night, sct snow shwrs will be likely across our region by later in the evening into Thursday, but with mainly light accumulations. This next shot of arctic air will not be accompanied by as much wind as Sunday's blast, so it won't feel as cold. Temperatures will begin to moderate on a Breezy Friday, but that breeze will still create a significant wind chill. On Saturday, some light wet snow is likely with continued moderation into the low 30s, with a brisk breeze. Sunday could see a few lt snow or mixed shwrs, but some partial sun should break through. An Alberta Clipper on Monday will have no arctic air to tap, so most of its precip will be liquid. After a still mild Tuesday, the pattern will be more unstable with a more active storm track, but not so much arctic air as we've seen this week. Averaged out, the upper air pattern will tend to be more zonal/west-to-east, keeping the really cold stuff bottled up in Canada.

The lake will begin icing more by Friday, but the moderating trend for the weekend and early next week will slow the freezing process.

PLEASE DON'T FORGET TO SUBMIT YOUR IDEAS TO THE BWEC THREAD BELOW.

Monday, January 21, 2008

BUFFALO WEATHER EXPERIENCE CENTER/Exhibit Ideas

The Buffalo Weather Experience Center (BWEC) is still very much in the works. We are moving forward with preliminary legal and design plans for what is hoped to be a singularly magnificent facility on the Buffalo waterfront, unmatched by any facility in the world in scope, architectural design, or variety and quality of interactive exhibits. The "we" includes meteorologists (Tom Niziol and me) along with engineers, architects, development specialists, political figures, attorneys, and a host of others who are dedicated to making this project an eventual reality, and--we hope--a spectacular centerpiece to our waterfront development. This is not going to be a static "museum," or a small facility tucked into a nondescript piece of architecture. The plan is to design a signature piece of waterfront architecture in a green facility which takes full visual and physical advantage of the grand vista offered by Lake Erie and its contributions to our weather. It will incorporate the most advanced interactive exhibits feasible, and be a draw for the millions of tourists who visit Niagara Falls every summer, and for local residents, school systems, visitors from nearby Toronto, Hamilton, Cleveland, Erie, and Pittsburgh year round. Many tourists head up to NF every summer, and typically don't give a visit to our City and waterfront much of a thought. Our aim is to change this! We want to design and build a versatile, amzing facility which will enable visitors to experience first hand all the types of weather and climate our globe has to offer. While we will offer them a healthy taste of what Buffalo is famous for, we will offer them MUCH more; we want to encompass the world's weather, global climate change, and the chance to learn and be entertained at the same time. We want to bring more opportunities to experience aspects of active weather and climate change than can be found in any other facility on the continent, if not globally. The public's interest in weather is nearly inexhaustible. There have been countless focus group studies which affirm this, and this underlying strength in concept is undeniable.

If realized, this facility can draw upon populations interested in spectacular experiences who, once here, will be adjacent to the other great developments which will be occurring on our waterfront. This jewel can be the primary draw to visitors to come have the more complete Buffalo historical and cultural experience that will be right next door.

HERE'S WHAT WE NEED: MORE GOOD EXHIBIT IDEAS!

We already have quite a number of good ideas, but the more the merrier. The ground rules for exhibits include educational content, and exhibits must be based on hard science--not "The Day After Tomorrow" sci-fi. I'll give you a quick sampling of what's in the works from our end (without too much detail), and then you can put your thinking caps on, folks.

-An interactive Storm Chasing experience in an IMAX theatre, preceded by an introductory recorded expert lecture with high impact storm footage. Visitors will see a group of developing severe storms, choose the one "to chase" and then receive a case history of which storm turned out to be the tornado-producer.

-An interactive Hurricane Hunter flight. Again, audience members will have the opportunity to participate in on-the-spot decision making (following that introductory lecture on the development of and approach of hurricanes to the US mainland).

-A Blizzard Room. Visitors receive protective gear and get to experience an indoor blizzard, maybe toss some snowballs. This will be combined to some extent with the Lake Effect experience and introductory lecture (think of the lure to sunbelt visitors leaving sweltering locations in the summer).

-A Climate Ride. A ride from the Antarctive north through our hemisphere, experiencing all types of weather and climate regimes all along the way.

Other exhibits may include being inside Severe Thunderstorms, the development of hail, viewing Flash Floods (i.e. Thompson Canyon), Dust Storms, Maritime Storms (the "Perfect Storm," the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald).

There will be 3D modeling of Global Climate Change/Warming and its potential consequences (i.e., what happens if sea levels rise 1-2 feet, versus more than 5 feet--which cities and island nations become inundated). A hologram of ongoing global weather.

The exhibits will be in near constant change, because that's the state of weather and climate--ever changing. Today, nearly all government weather service radar and satellite images are quickly archived, so we will be able to exhibit in vitual realtime the most recent high impact weather events from around the globe.

Part of our focus will be to make this facility an impossible-to-do-and-see-it-all-in-one-visit place; we want to give people a good reason to come back again and again. The subject matter, weather and climate, affords us the opportunity to do just that.

Remember, we are THINKING BIG. So take a little time and don't be afraid to THINK BIG either.

BWEC is also going to house research facilities and a conference center. We envision gaining additional support from nearby colleges and universities, and we feel it's likely NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will have interest in this one-of-a-kind center as well.

I've only scratched the surface here. We already have widespread support from many local municipalities, Erie County, and some interest from members of congress. This is not just some pie-in-the-sky idea which has no chance to go anywhere. We've already received generous financial support for some of the required feasibility work which must be done. So please jump in! And PLEASE DON'T FORGET TO SCROLL BACK DOWN TO THIS THREAD in the coming weeks with those ideas.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Wintry Pattern to Persist into Upcoming Week

The furnaces and fireplaces will get another workout this week. While our weekend arctic blast will ease up Monday into Tuesday, another polar plunge is set to push in during mid-week. The ski resorts have welcomed the snow, and more is on the way. Lake snow is scheduled to wind down early Monday with more seasonable winter air slowly arriving. Another cold front is set to cross over the region on Tuesday with a widespread, mainly light snowfall followed by arctic air that will likely set up localized lake snow going into mid week. Too early to tell where and how much, but signs are favorable for a wintry week ahead.