Weekend of Feb 2-3 Update

As Friday's storm system dies down, the weekend will bring more benign weather to the region. Wraparound snow behind the storm will become lighter & more intermittent in the Saturday predawn hours, but many roads & sidewalks will remain slick. Just a bit of very lt snow or freezing drizzle will be around Saturday morning, and may return later Saturday evening into early Sunday. High pressure should "squish the clouds" just enough to bring some Limited Sun by Sunday afternoon. Saturday will still have some wind chill in the air; Sunday will be tranquil. An approaching area of low pressure and its warm front will bring rain showers into WNY during Monday, although there's a chance they could briefly be mixed w/wet snow at the outset. A downslope breeze Monday night will cause temps to rise later in the evening into Tuesday, when Sct Shwrs & a possible Tshwr will be accompanied by a high closer to 50. A second storm will form along a cold front trailing from the first low pressure system. This system will intensify Tuesday night as it moves toward us, bringing a slug of soaking rain later Tuesday night, turning to a quick burst of snow Wednesday morning, when temps will fall thru the 30s, along with quite Gusty NW winds. At this point, it appears winds will not be properly aligned for a High Wind event.

Again, with our vigorous La Nina in progress, and a Positive/Warm Phase NAO, cold weather will arrive in "shots" and extended periods of colder than average temperatures will be unlikely. The average storm track, however, will favor above average precipitation.

Next Winter Storm Wears Different Stripes

Late Wednesday Evening Update: There is much more uncertainty in the Friday forecast than there was for Tuesday night's high confidence forecast of a major windstorm. Super Microcast and our Future Watch models at the station favor a quick change from early morning snow on Friday to a wintry mix, and maybe even all rain in the srn tier. If those trends were to verify snow accumulations would be minor, but travel conditions in most of Friday in the AM would be quite hazardous, with a chance for sleet and freezing rain. The NWS' GFS model has a slightly colder solution, favoring a quick transfer of energy to a secondary low closer to the east coast. That would keep us in colder air longer, and bring more snow and less mixed precip. NCEP's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is going with the colder solution this evening, which brings most of WNY--except areas close to PA, with a 40% chance of 8" or greater snow and a 70% chance of more than 4". The Canadian GEM and the European seem closer to our Super Microcast and Future Watch solutions, as does the UKMET model. With the track uncertainty, I've made a preliminary estimate of 3-6" further north in our viewing area, with greater amounts in Canada and lesser amts in the srn tier.

The State College WFO has already issued a Winter Storm WATCH for our PA viewing area, calling for a mainly icy mix, and BGM also has a WATCH up to the east.

Bottom line: Low confidence on accumulations right now. Whatever snow falls is likely to be more water laden than today's drier limited lake snow.

Wicked Wednesday Weather Photos

Here are just some interesting photos from the weather today.

Pictures from the Blizzard of '77

High winds blowing in snow off of Lake Erie.

The snow was so high, you could touch the traffic lights!

A front-end loader is trying to clear Furhmann Boulevard. You can barely see the buried car!

This view of Downtown Buffalo is courtesy of the Courier-Express. The Skyway, I-190, the old Aud, and a LOT OF SNOW!

Volunteer firemen are clearing off the roof of a house in Depew, NY.

Blizzard of '77 Memories

Since today is the anniversary of that unique and deadly storm, we thought we'd open a thread for you folks to bring us your stories and memories from those brutal days.

The true blizzard conditions got into high gear (after a snowy morning ahead of an approaching cold front) after this sharp cold front passed Buffalo around 11:30 that Friday morning. Behind that front, the temperature dropped from 26 to 0 in just 4 hours, and sustained winds averaged over 40 mph for many hours, with peak gusts averaging 69 mph and occasionally exceeding 70 mph. Wind chill fell to the life-threatening -50s. The worst of the awful conditions occurred that afternoon and evening, but the brutal blizzard continued about 3 days. Relatively little new snow fell behind that cold front. Most of the snow constituted a "ground blizzard," with the huge supply of powdery snow already depositted over an exceptionally cold and snowy latter December and January now being distributed by these incredible and bitter winds. NWS radar didn't detect much falling snow, and many pilots flying overhead reported clear skies, while they could look down and see the blinding snow on the ground. As many of you know, 29 people lost their lives to this disastrous storm; 7 of the 8 WNY counties were declared a federal disaster area (first time "snow" disaster, declared by Jimmy Carter), and Army troops from Ft Bragg had to be brought in to augment the NY National Guard troops already working to save lives and open roads.

So, feel free to post your stories, or raise questions on this thread.

NOTE: THE HIGH WIND/SNOW THREAD IMMEDIATELY PRECEDES THIS THREAD, AND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE.

High Wind Threat Increasing

The Tuesday night/Wed AM storm system is showing increasing signs of a High Wind threat (a severe weather term) toward Wednesday morning and into Wednesday. This morning's NAM model run (which does a decent job on boundary layer winds) suggests 30-40 mph sustained winds develop in the predawn hours of Wednesday on into much of Wednesday, before weakening mid/late afternoon. Winds of that magnitude would likely be accompanied by peak gusts of 60+, which would be sufficient for property damage. We talked abut this strong wind potential back on Thursday & Friday nights, but now it appears we'll be past the informal threshold of "strong" into genuinely High Winds. There will be some limited post-frontal snow accumulation after midnight, and lake effect will focus near the metro area/possibly Ntowns on Wednesday with a boundary layer vector 0f 240-250. However, these winds may have a tendency to shear apart any organized band for most of Wednesday, so accumulations currently don't look impressive.