Windy & Wintry Changes for Sunday

Wind Advisory goes into effect early Sunday morning thru Sunday night for the entire region with wind gusts up to 45 or 50mph. Lake Snow & Blowing Snow ADVISORY is posted for So. Erie, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and Wyoming counties 10am Sunday-7am Monday for accumulating lake snow and poor visibility/white-out conditions. An arctic cold front will plow through WNY later tonight, ushering in sharply colder air, strong gusty winds and lake snow for some. A quick burst of light to moderate snow will develop by dawn Sunday with 1-3 inches of accumulation. Scattered mainly light general snow showers will continue on Sunday with an inch or two in spots, with more significant lake snow across the extreme southern half of Erie, Wyoming and Northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties with 3-6" of snow possible. Lake snow may stretch as far as the distant southtowns, such as Orchard Park and East Aurora, but it will be mainly confined to ski country and portions of the southern tier. Strong gusty winds will create poor visibility and whiteout conditions at times in these areas. Temps will drop through the teens and into the single digits Sunday night with sub-zero wind chills.

Weekend System Looking More Vigorous....

again. Thursday model runs have injected some more wind and cold into the weekend fcast--not quite as cold as Monday's runs, but cold enough.

Some wet, slushy snow is likely by Saturday AM. Strengthening SW winds will bring in the colder air during the afternoon and evening. Snow Shwrs will become more powdery, and some limited lake snow may begin to set up near the metro area, before shifting to Ski Co as winds veer to WNWly later overnight into Sunday.

More details on News 4 at 5, 5:30 & 6.

Flood Threat to Increase; "Interesting" Wx to Follow...

Models continue to show 2 separate surges of significant rain on their way; one by early Tuesday into the morning, and a second after midnight Tue night into Wednesday. Combined with meltwater, the runoff created may pose a significant flood threat on streams, creeks, and possibly the rivers. The Flood WATCH for WNY goes into effect Tue evening thru Wed afternoon. There will also be the localized threat of ice jam flooding in the usual trouble spots. People in these regions should consider taking protective action for their basement possessions by or during Tuesday, just in case.

During Wednesday, as the second area of low pressure goes by, colder air will filter in from the north. This will probably convert the rain to sleet by or shortly after midday, and eventually turn it all over to snow. One question is whether or not the cold air will arrive in a shallow enough layer at the ground to present a period of freezing rain before the transition to snow is completed. Roads could become rather slick by late Wednesday and/or Wednesday evening, with a modest snow accumulation possible. Another disturbance could bring us a few snow showers on Friday, but a strong short wave in the flow aloft may bring increasing snow showers on Saturday in advance of a sharp arctic blast developing by Saturday night into Sunday--one of the colder airmasses this winter. As per usual with our vigorous la nina and positive/warm phase NAO, this cold outbreak will be unable to hang around these parts all that long...but it looks like it will be quite noticeable when it's here. Some lake snow may spray around on veering winds during Saturday, before a WNW flow dominates and steers most of the lake snow into Ski Co.

Major Warmup to Prompt Tricky Travel/Ice Jam Flood Threat

The calendar says February, but again, temps will soar to springlike levels early this week. A warm front pushing up from the southern plains will usher in unseasonably warm air Monday into Tuesday. A Winter Weather Advisory is posted for much of WNY from 6am thru noon Monday with a light wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain making for a slippery morning commute in spots. The wintry mix will quickly change to spotty plain rain in the afternoon and evening with temps rising quickly through the 30s and 40s. Windy and noticeably warmer weather arrives on Tuesday with highs climbing into the 50s to near 60. With the core of the storm system drawing closer to the region, periods of heavy rain and t-storms will develop on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Soaking rain, coupled with the unseasonably warm air, will sharply increase the risk of ice jam flooding on area creeks and streams. Rain will change to snow behind a cold front arriving on Wednesday with temps slipping back into the 30s. More interesting weather may be heading our way next weekend. Stay tuned...