Another Arctic Cold Snap; Late Wknd System Follows

Another quick shot of arctic air will arrive during Friday, accompanied by mainly light snow shwrs. Brisk winds and falling temps will set up during the day, and the cold will linger into a dry Saturday.

The next system to impact us will be another storm with a variety of precipitation. As I've posted, not a single significant storm system this winter has been all snow, and this one will be no exception. Clouds will increase on Sunday, with moderating temperatures. Some mixed precipitation or rain will arrive by later in the day. If it is a mixture, it may turn to all rain later Sunday night as strong warm advection approaches ahead of a deepening storm pulling out of the Gulf. Today's runs still show significant differences between the European, the Navy NOGAPS, the Canadian GEM, and the GFS. But a blend of these models (the Navy model is the coldest) suggests fairly heavy mixed precip or all rain later Sunday night, abruptly turning to snow with the passage of the storm's cold front early Monday. There may be a burst of snow, diminishing to snow showers--with very gusty winds on Monday, and sharply falling temps.

Since it's only Wednesday night, it goes almost without saying, there will undoubtedly be some adjustments in the projected path of this storm system.

Winter Storm Watch Tue-Tue Night

A Winter Storm WATCH has been issued for WNY from Tuesday AM into Wed AM. There is a possibility of heavy snow accumulations in that time period. This morning's 12NAM didn't run properly, so we're running a little short on new guidance. First glance makes me lean a bit toward moderate rather than truly heavy amounts, with the snow picking up in tempo during Tuesday afternoon. More on this a little later, with an updated forecast on News 4 at 5, 5:30 & 6. Mike's forecast from noon can be viewed on wivb.com, right now.