Friday, February 22, 2008

Quiet Weekend; Next System Potential

You may recall the first part of our up-and-down winter in which it seemed we had a storm system every weekend; not so this weekend. Saturday will be very tranquil, with difficult-to-time slow clearing. Sunday will be Bright & Sunny, but with a more noticeable wind chill. All in all, an easy wx weekend. The next storm system will bring us some snow or a wintry mix by sometime Monday evening. This mixture may turn to all rain for a time on Tuesday, before turning back to snow by late Tuesday or Tuesday night--based on its GFS projected path. The snow will diminish to snow showers before Wednesday, and there will be a cold wind to take our temps back down into the 20s for Wed-Thur.

One possible fly in this ointment on Friday evening is that both the European and Canadian GEM models take this system on a more southerly path, which would be a colder solution likely to result in more snow and less mixed precip. If the path were far enough south, of course, there wouldn't be much of anything. We can't view European precip output (unless you pay a subscription fee to the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting--the Europeans don't put much of their model data out there without a fee to support their forecast ctrs). But the Canadian GEM would seem to offer more snow.

At this point, I'm going to stick with my original projection of possible brief snow, then a mix, then possible rain for a few hours, then a change back to snow--diminishing to snow showers. No signs of any whoppers or raging windstorms with this somewhat vigorous system. Lindsay and Mary Beth will have the latest over the weekend.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Wintry Week

but not a terribly snowy one--even though there will be the threat of snow showers at least Mon-Wed. Moisture will be quite limited on Monday, but a reinforcing surge of arctic air arriving for Tuesday and Wednesday will increase the snow showers from time to time. Lake snow off L Erie, or course, is limited by the extensive ice cover.

A nasty wind chill will be with us into Tuesday evening. The coldest temperatures will arrive for Wednesday, but winds will be somewhat lighter on that day, making the well below normal temperatures easier to take.

There are signs of a moderating pattern change arriving for the weekend.