50/50 1st Weekend of March

A burst of snow showers and brisk winds continue to reduce visibility on area roadways along with a few slick spots late Saturday afternoon. However, this activity will gradually weaken tonight behind a departing northeast storm. A brighter, better-looking day is shaping up Sunday with high pressure strengthening across the Great Lakes, giving way to partly to mostly sunny skies. A southerly flow around this dry weather system will give temps a springlike boost over the next couple of days. While Sunday will start off on a chilly note, temps will rise to above the freezing mark in the afternoon with highs in the mid 30s. Even warmer air pushes in Monday with highs soaring to around 50. Local weather will become rather active this upcoming week with rain showers developing Monday, gradually changing to a wintry mix Tuesday, followed by colder air and a few snow showers on Wednesday. Another interesting system bears watching for the end of the week.

Friday "Clipper" May Have a Little Punch

Models are running late this Wednesday AM. However, there are indications Friday's clipper will have enough support to produce a few inches of snow, of the wet & slushy variety. Clippers don't usually carry much moisture, being cut off from the Gulf. This one will have a strong jet to maximize lift, and that should squeeze out a little more precip than the typical clipper. Friday's snow, though, will be in a warm advection pattern (southerly), so its quality will be wetter. Colder air in the wraparound circulation will leave us with snow showers Friday night and a few leftover snow showers for a slightly colder Saturday.

It stays relatively Frigid Wed-Thur, a little warmer with the clipper, then slightly colder on Saturday, ahead of more significant warming on Sunday. Next week looks rather active as well.

Winter Storm Warning

As of early afternoon on Monday, certainty on storm's path (as per usual) leaves much to be desired. The European's last run still takes the storm far enough south for its heavier snow to be south of our viewing area, while the NAM brings the storm close enough for a possible mixture near PA/srn tier, and the GFS is just a bit more to the south with mainly snow. It does still appear that the Niag Frontier will still be all snow, with some chance for sleet or freezing rain to sneak into parts of the srn tier on Tuesday. Initial snow will be slushy, due to relatively "mild" temps, and this snow will transition to a more powdery (higher snow/water ratio) snow late Tue night into Wed AM. As MB said on Sunday, there may be some lake enhancement to the north by Tue nite into Wed. This enhancement could get as far south as far nrn Erie & Gen Cos, in addition to Niag & Orl Cos.

Current potential looks to be significant, but still not a true "whopper." The duration of the event, rather than hourly snowfall rates, is what's going to bring snowfall totals up. Actual snowfall rates will likely be light to moderate by tom'w midday, mainly moderate Tue night, and then gradually diminish to snow showers by mid/late AM on Wed. At that point, some blowing and drifing will develop due to gustier winds and falling temps. NAM timing brings somewhat windier and snowier conditions to the Niag Frontier during Tue afternoon and night.

Next Storm System to Offer a Variety of Winter Precipitation

Gorgeous sunshine finishes off our February weekend before another storm evolving in the Plains takes aim on WNY early this week. While Monday will start off on a sunny note, clouds will gradually overspread the area with light snow moving in late Monday night into Tuesday. There is discrepancy among various weather models as to the exact track and intensity of this storm. However, with temps expected to go close to or above freezing on Tuesday, much of this precipitation may change over to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and possibly even plain rain making for tricky travel. An arctic cold front will then change the wintry mix back over to all snow (with some accumulation expected) Tuesday night. Temps will plunge into the teens and single digits into early Wednesday with strong gusty winds, sending wind chills into the subzero range. Sharply cold air will stick around going into midweek, with some general light snow showers and lake snow for some. Winter's not over yet...