Have We Turned the Corner?

Mostly--for awhile. Temperatures will be running above average most days next week, and after Thursday's spectacular afternoon, that's welcome news. An upper level ridge will dominate in the east much of next week. However, the GFS operational model continues to show a vigorous storm system racing by at the end of next week, which would allow a return to chillier conditions for next weekend. In the nearterm, Friday will be cooler largely due to cloud cover and occasional light rain. Saturday will probably get off to a slow start with low clouds and possible drizzle and fog early in the day, but sinking air from a weak ridge should "squish" the clouds by midday, giving way to a very nice afternoon, and a spectacular Sunday.

From 60s to 20s....

As winds slowly subside, temps will be dropping to the mid/upper 20s (from the AM high of 62) by Wed dawn--with a little graupel and a few lt snow shwrs overnight. Wed will be bright & cool, with a bit of a wind chill, but temps will moderate back into the 50s on Thursday. A storm pulling up toward the Ohio Valley will bring periods of rain into WNY before Friday AM and into Friday. It currently appears the weekend will be mainly dry, with temperatures moderating back up on Sunday into a somewhat unsettled pattern early next week--although it will be seasonably mild. The peak gust at the NWS today was 47 mph, but the WeatherWatch 4 Neighborhood WeatherNet sites registered gusts to over 50 mph at quite a few locations in Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee counties, with the lightest winds to the SE of the metro area.

This was an Advisory--not a High Wind--event, with little in the way of damage. As we've pointed out many times, High Winds by meteorological standards produce widespread property damage.

Windy Storm System

An increasing southerly wind will develop Monday night into early Tuesday, ahead of an intensifying are of low pressure going by to our north, and its trailing cold front. While conditions will be far from ideal for widespread svr tstorms Tuesday AM, some low topped convection could mix strong low level jet winds down to the surface ahead of the front, with strong mixing and sfc winds possible with the front and likely behind the front.

A now lengthier-appearing period of SW (from 240 degrees) boundary lyr winds is likely behind the front (earlier models had winds quickly veering southerly to westerly (270) may allow gusts to exceed 45 mph with and behind the front--and a few gusts to over 50 can't be ruled out.