Sharp Cooldown Early Next Week?

The Tuesday operational GFS hinted strongly at a vigorous upper low bringing sharply cooler wx to WNY by next Tuesday. This model, however, was at odds with the European. In Wednesday's 12z run, this trend has solidified and WNY looks more likely to suffer a rude awakening for a couple of days next week. A vigorous low may bring a couple of rounds of showers & tshowers across the region on Monday, with a sped-up cold front likely to take temps down from the 60s into the 50s, along with gusty winds. But by Tuesday, we'll see highs in the 40s, with a few rain showers--and a few snowflakes may be seen in the hills. This unseasonable chill will last into Wednesday, before moderation returns by Thursday.

Only Minor Variations on a Theme....

The warmth will continue largely unabated this week, with a cooler pattern change likely holding off until later Saturday or Saturday night. A weak cool front will cross the region Wednesday, but moisture and dynamics to make showers will be sparse. A better chance for Shwrs & Tshwrs will arrive by Saturday, with the approach of a slow-moving cold front. After that front fights its way through, significantly cooler conditions will arrive for a few days.