Buffalo Weather Blog

Muggies Increase, Decrease, Increase Again

2008-07-07T17:30:00.002-04:00

Dewpoints will be creeping up during Monday night, and Tuesday will be noticeably muggier than Monday--quite uncomfortable by WNY standards. The best chance for any Tuesday Tstorms will be in the higher terrain to S & SE, with activity increasing Tuesday night and ending Wednesday AM. Cooler & Drier conditions will return Wed, with a very pleasant Thursday lined up, ahead of the next warmup beginning Friday into the wknd. Bertha has intensified dramatically to a Cat 3 storm this afternoon.
Again, for those w/interests in global warming, I invited you to view my commentaries on the 2 previous threads.

Weekend Solidifies; Summery Pattern Approaches

2008-07-03T22:43:00.002-04:00

Precipitation chances for any part of this weekend, even in the southern tier, are now very low. While there will be showers in central PA, it appears these will stay south of our viewing area, though we'll have to keep an eye on them. Humidity will be comfortable into Sunday, when it will again edge upward. Early next week, we'll undergo muggification again, w/Sct Shwrs & Tstorms on Tue into early Wed, ahead of more comfortable conditions by Wed night. Hope some of you will check out my commentary on global warming in the previous thread, based on what I learned last week at the Nat'l Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder.

Warming Trend and a Drier Pattern

2008-06-30T22:45:00.002-04:00

Stormy weather takes a backseat for the next couple of days as High pressure builds in from the Tennessee Valley. This will lead to a drier weather pattern beginning Tuesday with partly sunny skies and comfortable high temps in the low to mid 70s. A brief bout of summer time heat arrives Wednesday with a decent amount of sunshine. Humidity picks up then with daytime temps popping into the low to mid 80s ahead of a cold front that will arrive early Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front on Thursday. However, another dry weather pattern quickly takes over starting on Friday, the 4th of July and into the balance of the upcoming holiday weekend with highs temps in the mid 70s. More summertime heat will push our way toward the end of the weekend into early next week with another chance of wet weather.

Stormy Weekend...Cool Down To Follow

2008-06-27T22:57:00.003-04:00

An active weekend weatherwise is shaping up for the region. A warm front pushing through will allow even more humid air to overspread the area on Saturday. The local atmosphere will turn even more unstable with several rounds of showers and t-storms likely from morning until night, along with dry time inbetween. The Storm Prediction Center includes all of WNY and Northern PA in a SLIGHT RISK of seeing damaging wind gusts and hail on Saturday. A cold front will push through late Saturday into early Sunday with more showers and t-storms likely. Cooler, somewhat less humid air arrives Sunday with still some leftover showers. Temps continue to cool off into the start of the week with more showers on Monday and early Tuesday. Drier weather is expected Wednesday with another chance of storms on Thursday. Latest guidance suggests storms may clear out in time for the 4th of July. Stay tuned...

"Muggification" develops later in the week.

2008-06-23T13:41:00.002-04:00

While we'll be dealing w/Sct Tstorms this afternoon mainly well N & S/SE of the metro area, a more summerlike pattern will develop by Thursday, with increased humidity along with a threat of occ'l shwrs & tstorms for a minority of the time. During the weekend, an upper level low over the nrn plains will edge eastward and bring an additional threat of storms, with early hints of peak activity from Saturday night into early Sunday. Speaking of hints, there are signs in one model that the weather pattern in early July will be turning cooler for a few days, including the 4th.

The Chill will be Slow to Exit

2008-06-17T12:25:00.002-04:00

Unseasonably cool temperatures will hang in there for several days, due to a cold upper level low which will drift ever so slowly to the east the remainder of the workweek. With this cold air in place aloft, Spotty Shwrs will tend to multiply in the afternoon, and the low freezing level will allow some small hail to develop. Temps will edge up a few degrees on Thur & Fri, and by the weekend we should crack 70 on Saturday and reach the mid 70s on Sunday. Most of the weekend should be dry, though a Sunday Shwr is possible.

Nature Will Be a Quick Change Artist

2008-06-12T22:25:00.004-04:00

A summery warmup is still slated for Friday, with a Few Shwrs or Tshwrs possible. However, much of the day will just be Partly Sunny & Muggy. A few Sct Shwrs & Tstorms will be around Friday night, and become somewhat more numerous for the start of Saturday, with some drying moving in later in the day. Sunday will include at least limited sun with seasonable temperatures, but another sharper cold front will cross the region Monday, ushering in unseasonably chilly temps and unsettled conditions.

Pictures of Iowa Flooding

2008-06-12T20:55:00.002-04:00

A view of downtown Cedar Rapids, Iowa shows widespread flooding from the raging Cedar River, Thursday June 12, 2008. Heavy rains continue to pound large portions of Iowa and as flooding continues officials are scrambling as rivers are expected to crest at record levels in many portions of the state. (AP Photo/Steve Pope)

Volunteers workers drive a fire truck away from the electrical generation facility after a gallant effort to save the power plant failed, as water from the Cedar River continues to rise, efforts are now directed to try and save the law enforcement center, Wednesday June 11, 2008 in Vinton, Iowa. Flood waters have inundated the electric plant in Vinton and the entire city is now without power. Officials are preparing for the Cedar River to crest at record levels all across the state. (AP Photo/Steve Pope)

Trains cars sit on the Quaker Oats Bridge that was built in 1898 as water from the Cedar River continues to flood large portions of Cedar Rapids, Iowa Thursday June 12, 2008. Heavy rains continue to pound large portions of Iowa and as flooding continues officials are scrambling as rivers are expected to crest at record levels in many portions of the state. (AP Photo/Steve Pope)

A Nice Respite; More Changes to Follow

2008-06-10T23:56:00.000-04:00

Hot & Steamy Turns Cooler & Comfy This Week

2008-06-08T21:38:00.002-04:00

Fans and A-C's will get a break this week following a cold front set to push through on Tuesday. Meantime, the sizzling summer heat builds into the start of the week. Monday's temps will soar into the mid to upper 80s with high humidity. However, there'll be a brisk southwest wind and the Lake Erie Shoreline to make it feel more tolerable. The Storm Prediction is already putting WNY in a Slight Risk for Severe T-Storms on Tuesday afternoon with showers and t-storms along the cold front. This system will put a temporary end to the hot, sultry conditions as we head into midweek with a return to more comfortable 70s on Wednesday and Thursday.

NWS Sunday Open House II

2008-06-05T12:54:00.002-04:00

Just to keep this thread from getting too unwieldy like the last one, I'm starting a new one--with, of course, another invitation to come join the NWS Sunday at their terrific Open House (details on their website). Along with other representatives of BWEC--the Buffalo Weather Experience Ctr--I'll be there, too. Weather discussions follow within.

NWS Open House This Sunday, June 8th

2008-06-02T11:51:00.002-04:00

Here's an event I highly recommend: the NWS Buffalo Forecast Office open house, coming this Sunday. The event runs from 9am through 6pm, at 587 Aero Drive--if you can see the FAA Control Tower, you're close! Tours through the newly refurbished forecast office with their state-of-the-art workstations will be included, of course, and there will be numerous exhibitors outside from universities, rescue companies, military recruiters for the Navy & USAF weather services, and Army Corps of Engineers--to name a few. Some of us representing the future Buffalo Weather Experience Center--with our plans for a spectacular national-scale interactive weather and climate discovery center--will be there (including yours truly)too. We'll be offering more info on this facility, and recruiting volunteers to keep the ball rolling as well.

I've been to a couple of these terrific NWS events, and if you're interested in meteorology, this is the place to be, folks. You can get more info from their website, at /www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/openhouse_2008.htm

Hope to see you there!

Warmer Weather for First Week of June and More Space News!

2008-05-31T22:40:00.006-04:00

Part II of the weekend features cooler than average temps with highs slipping back into the low to mid 60s on Sunday after a fairly active and stormy Saturday. But when the 1st week of June gets started, a warm push of air will overspread WNY. On Monday, highs will average in the low 70s. This warm trend will continue through the week with the next signficant storm system arriving Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Even more summerlike air will get here by the start of next weekend with highs soaring into the low 80s on Friday and Saturday. An update on the Space Shuttle Discovery that's aiding the International Space Station: Starting today, you can see both! NASA has just updated their Sightings page to include VIEWS OF SPACE SHUTTLE DiSCOVERY AND THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION. Check it out when the sky is clear! Here's the link again: http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/cities/region.cgi?country=United_States&region=New_York

Easy to Take Weather For Much of this Week

2008-05-26T22:35:00.003-04:00

Noticeably cooler air arrives on Tuesday with high pressure buiding back toward the region. Skies will become partly to mostly sunny ... cool highs in the 50s and low 60s. Temps begin to moderate Wednesday with readings back in the 60s. Sunshine sticks around Wednesday through early Friday with temps climbing into the low 70s by then. Unsettled weather returns next weekend with the threat of showers late Friday through Sunday.

Severe Weather Threat on Memorial Day

2008-05-25T13:27:00.002-04:00

The Storm Prediction Center has included all of WNY and Northern PA in a slight risk for severe t-storms on Memorial Day. There's potential for damaging winds especially during the afternoon and evening Monday along a cold front. There's also some uncertainty as to how much the local atmosphere will destabilize. That'll depend on the amount of sun and daytime heating we receive....more heating equals a greater threat of severe weather. Stay tuned for more on this developing stormy scenario as new weather guidance becomes available. Be aware you may need to adjust your outdoor holiday plans, and be sure to take advantage of the rest of today...it's a guarantee for a great BBQ!

See International Space Station in WNY

2008-05-24T21:07:00.004-04:00

Western New Yorkers are in for a celestrial treat now through Fri, June 6th. The International Space Station can be viewed in our local sky between now and then. As long as the sky is clear, and you look in the right direction, you may just catch a glimpse of this rare event. Part of the mission of the space station is to study health and safety issues. There are space experiments , including the microscopic effects of plant growth in space. NASA also wants to investigate health hazards posed by space radiation... and will it ever be safe for humans to live on Mars? Thanks to the results of the ISS experiments, we'll be finding out more about these topics. Here's a link to the scheduled times for our region. Just cut and paste the following URL onto your browser and click on your city: http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/cities/region.cgi?country=United_States&region=New_York
You'll see a list of scheduled possible sightings, including the length of view, and which direction in the sky you should look at for approach and departure. Be sure to comment on the blog if you are one of the lucky ones to see it, and if you have any pictures, you can send them to newstrackers on WIVB.com Enjoy!

A "Slow Go" This Week....

2008-05-19T12:39:00.003-04:00

A couple of posters last Friday wanted to know why I wasn't keeping up with weather.com's wildly optimistic forecast of upper 70s by late this week. Now you know. In fact, even I was too optimistic. This is still the season where "blocky" patterns are often favored, and we are in an Omega Block--shaped like that letter. Low-high-low in the upper levels, with nearly no progression expected until the end of the week. In fact, there'll be a setback after a smidge of improvement Tuesday, with more raw conditions for Wed-Thur. Friday, the block will begin to progress a bit, giving way to a slow climb in temps leading to near normal temps by Sunday, a mainly pleasant holiday.

It's Going to Take a While to Dig Out of This Hole...

2008-05-16T20:13:00.002-04:00

After the unsettled weekend before us, with progressively chillier temps and occasional showers, improvement will be slow to arrive. The upper level trough over Quebec will continue to pump cool and damp air into our region, with a few leftover shwrs still possible on a Chilly Monday. The threat of a few showers will still be with us into the midweek, with only very slow moderation of temperatures. At the time of this posting, it looks like after Saturday morning's 60s, we won't see any 60s again until Thur-Fri, with some longer term warming beginning to show up in the Climate Prediction Ctr's 8-14 day outlook. The newest summer outlook from those folks shows a weaker signal for warmer than normal temperatures than their April outlook trending, in fact, toward "equal chances" or no real trend at all. On the other hand, at least there's no signal of our cooler May weather persisting in the summer....

Not a bad Work Week; as for the Wknd....

2008-05-12T13:38:00.002-04:00

After a gray, damp start Monday morning, much of this work week will be more than tolerable. A dry and mild Tuesday, a warm Wednesday, but an approaching cool front will bring some showers in during the afternoon, mainly late...and into Wednesday night. Temps will cool a bit for Thur-Fri, but it should be mainly dry. During the weekend, however, a vigorous short wave will approach on a Breezy Saturday, and bring an increasing threat of Sct Shwrs later in the day. An upper level trough will be cared out in the atmosphere over the Great Lakes, allowing cooler than average temps to take hold again. As the time of this posting, however, it doesn't look especially wet for Sunday, either. Sct Shwrs may increase later in the day and at night.

Pattern Not Encouraging for Some Time to Come

2008-05-08T13:39:00.002-04:00

Great astronomy info in Mike's thread below, by the way.

The overall pattern for much of next week and the following week shows extensive troughiness for much of the central and eastern US, which will favor above normal precipitation and below normal temps. As previously mentioned, that doesn't mean every single day will be Wet & Chilly (oftentimes, approaching short waves bring brief warmups before they pass), but it does mean we're done with the 70s for the foreseeable future. Mother's Day precip as of this posting looks to be holding off until late in the day. This is the time of the year where "blocky" patterns are climatologically favored. If you're in the bad portion of the block, you're out of luck. Normally I wouldn't mention what the GFS shows too far out in mid-Spring. However, it's consistently showing upper level low pressure which would keep us Chilly and possibly Wet NEXT weekend. Most of this one, fortunately, will be dry--until Sunday night, when things go way down hill.

Star Gazers Bedazzled

2008-05-08T09:37:00.003-04:00

Now that the winter shade of gray is breaking, there are numerous opportunities for our viewers to observe the heavens on clear nights.

The Ferguson Planetarium at Buffalo State College is offering a couple planetarium programs through the month of May. Learn about the spring nighttime sky in, “Nights of the Vernal Bloom”, Friday’s at 8:00 PM and Saturday’s at 3:00 PM. A second show, “Dawn of New Horizons” is a presentation on NASA’s space probe missions. That show
is scheduled on Friday’s at 9:00 PM and Saturday’s at 4:00 PM. Following the Saturday 4:00 PM show, telescopes will be set up to view the solar disk through June 12, 2008. For information call (716) 878-4911.

The Penn Dixie site in Blasdell offers a number of public viewings of the night sky during the year. One such program is scheduled for Saturday, May 17, 2008 beginning at 7:30 PM. Telescopes, with filters, will be available to view sunspots and solar flares before sunset. Mercury, Mars, Saturn and the Beehive Cluster M44 will be visible after sunset. More information is available at (716)627-4560 or on http://www.penndixie.org/ .

One of the best spots to take in the heavenly wonders in western New York, is at the Beaver Meadow Audubon Center located off Rt. 77 in North Java, where, because of the limited light pollution, you can view the planets and other features of the cosmos on the first and third Saturday of each month through September. The telescopes are provided through the generosity of the Buffalo Astronomical Association. Call (585)457-3238 for more information.

The Martz Observatory in Frewsburg, New York, just acquired a new 24” robotic telescope and occasionally offers public viewing nights. Look for such information on their web site at http://www.martzobservatory.com/ .

Our Canadian neighbors, the St. Catharines chapter of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada is holding a solar disk observation on Saturday, May 10 from 11:00 until 2:00 PM at the Fairview Mall in St. Catharines and in the evening, will host a “Solar System Walk”, at Firemen’s Park. Check out their web site for more at, http://www.astronomyniagara.com/ .

Of course most of these events are weather permitting, but WeatherWatch4 will take care of that part, with the very latest forecast 24-7.

1st Full Week of May to Offer Springlike Changes

2008-05-04T21:25:00.004-04:00

First of all, the bumpy cloud pics to the right are not too often seen here in WNY. They're called Mammatus clouds, associated with the anvil cloud that extends from a decaying cumulonimbus (storm cloud). These were taken around sunset by Mike Schwab of Orchard Park after the storms rolled through Saturday evening. Cool shots, Mike!

As we head into the 1st full week of May, a noticeble springlike change will occur with temps rebounding into the 60s for much of the upcoming week after a chilly finish to the weekend. A ridge of high pressure will keep WNY dry with plenty of sunshine to start out on Monday. A clipper developing across the upper midwest will deliver the chance for a few hit or miss showers and isolated t-storms by Tuesday afternoon. More dry time moves in early Wednesday, but daytime heating could cause the atmosphere to destabilize, generating a few pop-up PM showers and t-storms. Local weather will likely turn even more active later Thursday into Friday as a more important spring storm lifting out of the central plains takes aim on the region, bringing widespread showers and t-storms. However, the track of this system is still uncertain, yet bears close watching.

Post Frontal Rainbow

2008-05-04T11:24:00.003-04:00

These pictures were submitted courtesy of Barb from Medina.

It was a beautiful sight last night around 7pm in many parts WNY. I cannot make out a double rainbow from these pictures, but I know a lot of people reported a double rainbow closer to the Buffalo metro.

Improving Pattern after Saturday

2008-05-02T19:11:00.002-04:00

An approaching cold front will set off more numerous Showers & Tshowers mainly later on Saturday and early Saturday evening. Drier and cooler weather will settle in for Sunday, with any light shwrs ending early, clouds thinning, and more sunshine returning for the afternoon. Saturday's tstorms are unlikely to produce severe weather. Since the instability ahead of the cold front will be surface-based, rather than elevated (in which there is little connection with the air near the surface), Lake Erie's chilly waters may weaken approaching convective cells to some extent. Upper level winds will also not be conducive to producing severe weather. The cooling behind the cold front will take Sunday's highs back to the mid 50s, which is not the kind of chill we had earlier this past week.

Cold Spell Won't Last Too Long...

2008-04-28T14:04:00.002-04:00

but while it's here, it will still bring a threat to tender vegetation during the nightime hours. Of course, knowledgeable gardeners would presumably know better than to put out tender plants this soon. But many trees and plants are at an advanced state of blooming, and may face some limited damage potential. The amount of nightime cloudiness will make all the difference as to the threat of frost (no threat when it's overcast) and freezing. It does appears some srn tier/rural areas will face a freeze potential Tue and Wed nights. Temps will begin to moderate on Thursday and especially on Friday into the weekend, but a warm front to our south may produce a few showers. The weekend looks fairly mild but unsettled at this early point.