Buffalo Weather Blog

Pattern Not Encouraging for Some Time to Come

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Thu, 08 May 2008 17:39:00 +0000

Great astronomy info in Mike's thread below, by the way.

The overall pattern for much of next week and the following week shows extensive troughiness for much of the central and eastern US, which will favor above normal precipitation and below normal temps. As previously mentioned, that doesn't mean every single day will be Wet & Chilly (oftentimes, approaching short waves bring brief warmups before they pass), but it does mean we're done with the 70s for the foreseeable future. Mother's Day precip as of this posting looks to be holding off until late in the day. This is the time of the year where "blocky" patterns are climatologically favored. If you're in the bad portion of the block, you're out of luck. Normally I wouldn't mention what the GFS shows too far out in mid-Spring. However, it's consistently showing upper level low pressure which would keep us Chilly and possibly Wet NEXT weekend. Most of this one, fortunately, will be dry--until Sunday night, when things go way down hill.

Star Gazers Bedazzled

noreply@blogger.com (Mike Cejka) — Thu, 08 May 2008 13:37:00 +0000

Now that the winter shade of gray is breaking, there are numerous opportunities for our viewers to observe the heavens on clear nights.

The Ferguson Planetarium at Buffalo State College is offering a couple planetarium programs through the month of May. Learn about the spring nighttime sky in, “Nights of the Vernal Bloom”, Friday’s at 8:00 PM and Saturday’s at 3:00 PM. A second show, “Dawn of New Horizons” is a presentation on NASA’s space probe missions. That show
is scheduled on Friday’s at 9:00 PM and Saturday’s at 4:00 PM. Following the Saturday 4:00 PM show, telescopes will be set up to view the solar disk through June 12, 2008. For information call (716) 878-4911.

The Penn Dixie site in Blasdell offers a number of public viewings of the night sky during the year. One such program is scheduled for Saturday, May 17, 2008 beginning at 7:30 PM. Telescopes, with filters, will be available to view sunspots and solar flares before sunset. Mercury, Mars, Saturn and the Beehive Cluster M44 will be visible after sunset. More information is available at (716)627-4560 or on http://www.penndixie.org/ .

One of the best spots to take in the heavenly wonders in western New York, is at the Beaver Meadow Audubon Center located off Rt. 77 in North Java, where, because of the limited light pollution, you can view the planets and other features of the cosmos on the first and third Saturday of each month through September. The telescopes are provided through the generosity of the Buffalo Astronomical Association. Call (585)457-3238 for more information.

The Martz Observatory in Frewsburg, New York, just acquired a new 24” robotic telescope and occasionally offers public viewing nights. Look for such information on their web site at http://www.martzobservatory.com/ .

Our Canadian neighbors, the St. Catharines chapter of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada is holding a solar disk observation on Saturday, May 10 from 11:00 until 2:00 PM at the Fairview Mall in St. Catharines and in the evening, will host a “Solar System Walk”, at Firemen’s Park. Check out their web site for more at, http://www.astronomyniagara.com/ .

Of course most of these events are weather permitting, but WeatherWatch4 will take care of that part, with the very latest forecast 24-7.

1st Full Week of May to Offer Springlike Changes

noreply@blogger.com (Mary Beth Wrobel) — Mon, 05 May 2008 01:25:00 +0000

First of all, the bumpy cloud pics to the right are not too often seen here in WNY. They're called Mammatus clouds, associated with the anvil cloud that extends from a decaying cumulonimbus (storm cloud). These were taken around sunset by Mike Schwab of Orchard Park after the storms rolled through Saturday evening. Cool shots, Mike!

As we head into the 1st full week of May, a noticeble springlike change will occur with temps rebounding into the 60s for much of the upcoming week after a chilly finish to the weekend. A ridge of high pressure will keep WNY dry with plenty of sunshine to start out on Monday. A clipper developing across the upper midwest will deliver the chance for a few hit or miss showers and isolated t-storms by Tuesday afternoon. More dry time moves in early Wednesday, but daytime heating could cause the atmosphere to destabilize, generating a few pop-up PM showers and t-storms. Local weather will likely turn even more active later Thursday into Friday as a more important spring storm lifting out of the central plains takes aim on the region, bringing widespread showers and t-storms. However, the track of this system is still uncertain, yet bears close watching.

Post Frontal Rainbow

noreply@blogger.com (LSchwarzwaelder) — Sun, 04 May 2008 15:24:00 +0000

These pictures were submitted courtesy of Barb from Medina.

It was a beautiful sight last night around 7pm in many parts WNY. I cannot make out a double rainbow from these pictures, but I know a lot of people reported a double rainbow closer to the Buffalo metro.

Improving Pattern after Saturday

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Fri, 02 May 2008 23:11:00 +0000

An approaching cold front will set off more numerous Showers & Tshowers mainly later on Saturday and early Saturday evening. Drier and cooler weather will settle in for Sunday, with any light shwrs ending early, clouds thinning, and more sunshine returning for the afternoon. Saturday's tstorms are unlikely to produce severe weather. Since the instability ahead of the cold front will be surface-based, rather than elevated (in which there is little connection with the air near the surface), Lake Erie's chilly waters may weaken approaching convective cells to some extent. Upper level winds will also not be conducive to producing severe weather. The cooling behind the cold front will take Sunday's highs back to the mid 50s, which is not the kind of chill we had earlier this past week.

Cold Spell Won't Last Too Long...

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 18:04:00 +0000

but while it's here, it will still bring a threat to tender vegetation during the nightime hours. Of course, knowledgeable gardeners would presumably know better than to put out tender plants this soon. But many trees and plants are at an advanced state of blooming, and may face some limited damage potential. The amount of nightime cloudiness will make all the difference as to the threat of frost (no threat when it's overcast) and freezing. It does appears some srn tier/rural areas will face a freeze potential Tue and Wed nights. Temps will begin to moderate on Thursday and especially on Friday into the weekend, but a warm front to our south may produce a few showers. The weekend looks fairly mild but unsettled at this early point.

Sharp Cooldown Early Next Week?

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:42:00 +0000

The Tuesday operational GFS hinted strongly at a vigorous upper low bringing sharply cooler wx to WNY by next Tuesday. This model, however, was at odds with the European. In Wednesday's 12z run, this trend has solidified and WNY looks more likely to suffer a rude awakening for a couple of days next week. A vigorous low may bring a couple of rounds of showers & tshowers across the region on Monday, with a sped-up cold front likely to take temps down from the 60s into the 50s, along with gusty winds. But by Tuesday, we'll see highs in the 40s, with a few rain showers--and a few snowflakes may be seen in the hills. This unseasonable chill will last into Wednesday, before moderation returns by Thursday.

Only Minor Variations on a Theme....

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:22:00 +0000

The warmth will continue largely unabated this week, with a cooler pattern change likely holding off until later Saturday or Saturday night. A weak cool front will cross the region Wednesday, but moisture and dynamics to make showers will be sparse. A better chance for Shwrs & Tshwrs will arrive by Saturday, with the approach of a slow-moving cold front. After that front fights its way through, significantly cooler conditions will arrive for a few days.

After a Saturday Peak...

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 01:31:00 +0000

the cooling which follows will be minor. On this Friday evening, signs still point to a record high being likely on Saturday with a SE downslope wind. It will be locally cooler along the Lk Ontario shore. On Sunday, an upper level low will drift slowly by to our south. Moisture and dynamics will be marginal, so we may see a few spotty showers, more likely closer to PA. Temps will be somewhat cooler, but remain above average into next Saturday. The operational GFS still points to a pattern change developing during next weekend, taking us back to an unsettled, chillier regime.

Warmup Looks More Impressive

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 16:15:00 +0000

A dry workweek, starting out chilly but becoming truly springlike on Wednesday. The typical cooling closer to Lk Erie & the Niag Rvr, however, will hold metro area, Grand Island, wrn Niag & NW Erie Co high temps back with a SW flow to the 50s on Wed & Thur. As you move further inland, afternoon temps will reach the mid/upper 60s on Wed, and some spots will make it into the 70s on Thursday. A backdoor cold front will allow temps to cool a little for next weekend.

Not Much of a Weekend.

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 03:47:00 +0000

The cool backwash circulation behind our slow moving storm system will leave us with spotty lighter shwrs on Saturday, and slowly falling temps, with a noticeable wind chill. Later Saturday night, these spotty shwrs will begin to mix with and change over to a bit of snow, especially toward morning, as temps drop to 30-34. Lt snow shwrs Sunday AM will shift south and dissipate, leaving us with a Breezy & Cold day. However, skies may brighten just a bit from the metro area northward in the afternoon. More Sun returns Monday, but it will still be rather Cool. Plenty sun arrives for Tue-Wed, with gradually moderating temps.

Friday Severe Weather Threat

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 18:52:00 +0000

SPC now has all WNY at Slight Risk for Severe Tstorms on Friday. Conditions will become more favorable for supercells, but low level wind shear could contribute to a few brief tornadoes. However, straightline winds look to be the principle threat, not tornadoes.

Spring Has Sprung, But Significant Pattern Change Coming

noreply@blogger.com (Mary Beth Wrobel) — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 02:38:00 +0000

Western New York continues with a somewhat lengthy spring like stretch going into the new week. Mild to warm, dry weather will persist through Tuesday as a disturbance approaching from the western Great Lakes washes out. Temps stay above average through the majority of the week...highs in the 50s/60s. The next chance of rain arrives Wednesday with a few scattered rain showers. A stronger cold front moves in Friday with periods of rain and sharply colder air diving in Saturday and Sunday. Temps next weekend will drop through the 40s along with the chance of a rain/snow mix. Do not be discouraged though, this next chilly pattern will be relatively short-lived, only lasting a few days before spring weather returns from a short hiatus.

Have We Turned the Corner?

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 01:44:00 +0000

Mostly--for awhile. Temperatures will be running above average most days next week, and after Thursday's spectacular afternoon, that's welcome news. An upper level ridge will dominate in the east much of next week. However, the GFS operational model continues to show a vigorous storm system racing by at the end of next week, which would allow a return to chillier conditions for next weekend. In the nearterm, Friday will be cooler largely due to cloud cover and occasional light rain. Saturday will probably get off to a slow start with low clouds and possible drizzle and fog early in the day, but sinking air from a weak ridge should "squish" the clouds by midday, giving way to a very nice afternoon, and a spectacular Sunday.

From 60s to 20s....

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 01:45:00 +0000

As winds slowly subside, temps will be dropping to the mid/upper 20s (from the AM high of 62) by Wed dawn--with a little graupel and a few lt snow shwrs overnight. Wed will be bright & cool, with a bit of a wind chill, but temps will moderate back into the 50s on Thursday. A storm pulling up toward the Ohio Valley will bring periods of rain into WNY before Friday AM and into Friday. It currently appears the weekend will be mainly dry, with temperatures moderating back up on Sunday into a somewhat unsettled pattern early next week--although it will be seasonably mild. The peak gust at the NWS today was 47 mph, but the WeatherWatch 4 Neighborhood WeatherNet sites registered gusts to over 50 mph at quite a few locations in Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee counties, with the lightest winds to the SE of the metro area.

This was an Advisory--not a High Wind--event, with little in the way of damage. As we've pointed out many times, High Winds by meteorological standards produce widespread property damage.

Windy Storm System

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 15:41:00 +0000

An increasing southerly wind will develop Monday night into early Tuesday, ahead of an intensifying are of low pressure going by to our north, and its trailing cold front. While conditions will be far from ideal for widespread svr tstorms Tuesday AM, some low topped convection could mix strong low level jet winds down to the surface ahead of the front, with strong mixing and sfc winds possible with the front and likely behind the front.

A now lengthier-appearing period of SW (from 240 degrees) boundary lyr winds is likely behind the front (earlier models had winds quickly veering southerly to westerly (270) may allow gusts to exceed 45 mph with and behind the front--and a few gusts to over 50 can't be ruled out.

Weekend Update

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 02:43:00 +0000

A quiet weekend, with temperatures well below normal into early Sunday, before a significant turnaround begins. There may be a few lake flurries around on a Partly to Mostly Sunny Saturday. While it will be Cold, it will also be Tranquil, making it feel more comfortable. Saturday night lows will be Unseasonably Cold, but a downslope SE breeze on Sunday will bring our daytime high back to near normal. Showers associated with a warm front will arrive late Sunday night into Monday, with springlike temps into Tuesday morning. The complicating factor, though, is an intensifying storm will be passing to our north on Tuesday. Unseasonable warmth and Gusty Winds ahead of its cold front will precede a possible squall line. Strong to high winds will develop with and behind this sharp cold front. By evening, leftover showers will turn to a bit of snow. Tuesday's temps will plunge from the mid 50s into the 30s by early evening. Things will settle down nicely Wed-Fri.

Stickin' the Ol' Neck Out--Major Revision

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 16:05:00 +0000

Based on morning model runs, the likelihood of significant snow overspreading WNY has increased. In fact, more than 8" of slushy, water-laden snow may accumulate overnight in parts of the srn tier, and as much as 4" will be possible near Buffalo, with lesser amounts to the north toward Lk Ontario.

The 12z NAM is going gung-ho on this ripple of low pressure which will pass to our south, and would even bring heavy snow to the metro area, so the 18z run will be critical. The more consistent but lower resolution GFS confines the hvy snow to the srn tier. But as of noon today, I have to raise a red flag on this one for the srn tier, and maybe an orange one-of-sorts for the Buffalo Stowns and the City. More on News 4 at 5, 5:30 & 6.

If You're Looking for a Spring Breakout,

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 17:35:00 +0000

this won't be the week, by any stretch.

One area of low pressure will bring some lt snow & rain showers into the region Tuesday afternoon probably changing to snow later Thursday evening, and ending as Wed AM flurries. Another low approaching from the lower Ohio Valley will likely bring a lot of clouds and the threat of some very lt snow on Thursday, with better organized precipitation--probably snow--Thursday night, ending early Friday. There may be some modest accumulation Thursday night. A second low by Saturday could bring more mixed precipitation, with a fresh shot of chilly air arriving for Sunday.

As for the lake effect question on the previous thread, at this time of the year the higher angle and heating of the sun would tend to take any daytime lake snow and break it up into individual cells, rather than well organized bands. At night, however, the loss of daytime heating can allow lake bands to reorganize and produce accumulating snow. While we will see some snow this week, it will be of the synoptic type (more widespread). As of today, satellite imagery appears to show around 40-45% open water on Lk Erie, mostly in the north half, with wide leader cracks in the ice to the south.

There are no signs of a true pattern switch to more consistently mild weather showing up for next week either, though there may be some brief periods of moderation.

Holiday Week to Serve Up Wild Weather Changes

noreply@blogger.com (Mary Beth Wrobel) — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 04:18:00 +0000

St. Patrick's Day, The Spring Equinox, Easter.... all within a week...and lots going on in the weather department during this holiday span. Sunshine kicks off the week on this St. Patrick's day, comfortable highs in the upper 30s and only a slight breeze. A storm pulling out of the plains will give temps a springlike boost during the final days of winter. By Tuesday morning, rain will spread across the region, becoming steady at times through the day and temps bouncing back into the 40s. With rising temps, rain combined with a melting snowpack may prompt flooding concerns across WNY going into midweek. In fact, temps will soar into the low 50s on Wednesday along with strong winds, showers and possible thunderstorms. This will quickly be followed by a shot of cold air that will arrive in time for the first day of Spring on Thursday with gusty winds and a few snow showers. Another interesting storm bears watching for the end of the holiday weekend going into Monday (also known as Dyngus Day.) In a nutshell, it's a busy holiday week in the local weather world.

Weekend Update/March 15-16.

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 02:31:00 +0000

A slow start to the weekend, with low clouds and possible fog around Saturday AM, slowly thinning and giving way to Limited Sun for the afternoon. It won't be as mild as on Friday, but it won't be a bad afternoon at all, either. Later Saturday night, colder air will filter in, and it will get cold enough for a possible Lk Ontario response in the form of light lake effect snow shwrs on a northerly flow. For Sunday, we may still have a few lt snow shwrs around, mainly AM. If you're headed to the big Parade, dress for midwinter cold. It won't actually BE that cold, but 3 hours of exposure to a 12-22mph breeze (with some sun to help out) can be pretty wearing. Parade temps will be 32-35. Monday looks to be crisp and pleasant with abundant sun and temps edging back up to the upper 30s. We should reach the mid 40s on Tuesday, with a few lt shwrs possible, mainly later. Shwrs will increase Tuesday night. Wednesday will be Rainy & with temps reaching the upper 40s, we'll have to watch for possible ice jam problems developing. There may even be a bit of lightning. By Thursday, this storm system will pull off to the NE. There are preliminary signs we will see a changeover to Snow & Snow Shwrs by Thursday, along with Cold, Gusty winds. However, there is some model "dissension" on this scenario. It does look like below normal temps will be returning, however, regardless of snow--from Thursday into next weekend.

More tranquil week ahead...

noreply@blogger.com (LSchwarzwaelder) — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 13:59:00 +0000

It's looking like we're in for a bit of a breather this week after quite a snowy weekend. As of this AM, Lockport and Perrysburg saw the highest storm totals (25.5"). High pressure will move into town tonight, allowing winds to diminish. Tonight's temps will really bottom out due to the light winds, partial clearing and fresh snow pack. Monday a weak disturbance will stay to the south of our viewing area, bringing more clouds into the Southern Tier. Also, a few flurries are not out of the question for NPA. Another weak front will move into the picture late Tuesday and into Wednesday, which will bring the chance for some light wet snow showers. A big warm up is on the way for the end of the week with temps returning to the 40's.

BLOG BEHAVIOR

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 19:45:00 +0000

Someone earlier today posted a well written complaint about the incredibly immature behavior which has greatly diminished the value of this blog.

I could not agree more.

A number of you young posters are, frankly, ruining this blog. It's not just the abusive language from a few; it's the childish, hysterical nature of many of the posts we've been seeing. You have made this blog a far less useful forum, and shown a chaotic lack of self control. Adults don't have time for this nonsense, since we're generally much busier than you kids are.

So, I say this as a father, blog administrator, and chief meteorologist. Either you start to shape up and calm down, or we will ignore your posts. I will not allow my staff and I to waste valuable time dealing with misbehaving children. It's like a classroom in which the kids have taken over, and the teacher has lost control. I think you know what would happen in a school environment (or SHOULD happen) when bad behavior disrupts the classroom.

Bottom line: If you want this blog to continue, and you want us to respond to you, show some maturity. If you don't, I will make it department policy to ignore your posts.

As Colonel Jessup (Jack Nicholson) asked in the movie "A Few Good Men:" Are we
CLEAR?

Winter Storm Warning--but NO Blizzard!

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 15:14:00 +0000

As I said last night at 11, there was no evidence that winds would be of blizzard criteria in this storm, and that's still the case this Friday morning. The Warning goes into effect 4pm through 8am Sunday. Frequent periods of snow today will pick up a bit by mid/late afternoon, leading to some slick driving on untreated surfaces for the PM commute, w/1-3" on the ground by evening. More periods of snow will continue tonight and Saturday morning. A raw NE breeze will pick up later today and continue into the morning. 2-4 additional inches will fall tonight. Storm totals should be in the 10-13" range by the predawn hours of Sunday for most of the Niagara Frontier, Chautauqua & nrn Catt Cos, with POSSIBLY lesser amounts to the SE due to the potential of sleet mixing in. NE winds will increase a little to 15-30 tom'w afternoon, strongest toward Lk Ontario, where some lake enhancement will probably produce locally higher amounts than that 10-13" range.

The most intense part of this storm will develop during Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, diminishing after 1 or 2 AM Sunday. Snow will be heavy, with blowing and drifting--BUT snowfall rates should be manageable for most of the time during this long duration event. Of course, I'll have updated accumulation projections on News 4 this evening, including new input from our Super Microcast.

Still ANOTHER Storm to Watch-Yikes!

noreply@blogger.com (Don Paul) — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 17:41:00 +0000

Frankly, I admit to storm fatigue--BUT, another system of note will be on the way Friday. A low pulling out of the SE will move parallel to the Appalachians, with differing storm paths from different models. Snow will likely develop by or during Friday afternoon, and may become steadier later in the day. Arctic air will once again be shallow at best on Friday into Friday night, so there is the possibility of snow going over, once again, to a mixture. Conditions favor colder air wrapping behind the deepening storm on Saturday changing any possible mix back to snow, with falling temperatures. As nearly always, the band of heavy snow on the NW side of the storm will be fairly narrow, so it could be nudged east or west easily in future projected storm tracks.

So, yes, there is some potential for significant snow with this system, but there is also considerable Dud potential as well.